[The VFM Addict]

I too favour incompetence as the likely cause.   But that terrifies me even more because it means not just that politicians are incompetent but also that their close medical advisers are also.   Because masks are an essential tool to reducing onward infections.     Any senior medical adviser not insisting on their general use is intellectually challenged  or has some ulterior motive.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

This, written by a UK Cardiology Registrar, is the most concise and informative thread I have ever read about the Covid-19 known facts.  If you only read one thing today make sure its this full thread.

And if you want to know why the NHS isn’t ready then he tells everyone here.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

In true conspiracy theory mode I suspect that the Intelligence Services do not like the thought of losing all the CCTV intelligence that they have come to rely on. The US have a similar attitude. Unfortunately I do not feel competent enough to search the German sites to find out what is the attitude of their Government to masks.

[The VFM Addict]

Most retired Doctors and Nurses don’t want to go back to help with the virus because they no longer like the NHS working environment or are too old and would be at serious risk of infection it they returned.   Yet, most expressed a feeling of guilt for not wanting to.    Time for some outside the box thinking again.

No need to put them back within NHS facilities or in proximity to infected patients.   Use their expertise remotely thereby lessening the load on those at the coal face.   The retired docs are ideal for delivering telephone consultations.   Likewise the retired nurses have better triage skills and experience than gave most 111 operators.   Indeed, no reason why, if they have good broadband and reliable telephone lines, they could not do such from home.   Most 111 calls are now call backs anyway.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Richard]

Ed P wrote:

The following is purely educated guesswork on my part, based on many years spent living in Singapore. My guess would be demographics.

Yes, I think you are right, if you do not have many of a certain group you are not going to have so many infected. I noted from the Singapore link that the few elderly victims they do have, appear to be doing as well or possibly better than in some other locations. Their success contact tracking is possibly the envy of many places.

[Ed P]

Re: the Twitter feed by the Cardiology Registrar. Isopropyl Alcohol (70%) is as effective as ethanol (gin strength). For those interested it works as follows:

70% is optimal for most cell types, especially those with a cell wall like prokaryotes. 30% water is added to  make the solution hypotonic.

The alcohol disrupts the hydrophobic forces holding the phospholipids of the membrane while dehydrating any peptidogylcan of the wall enough to cause it to become less fluid/more brittle. The hypertonicity (achieved by adding water)   causes the cell to swell and  burst. (Bacteria are similarly affected but it takes longer)

Now I know what the Chinese are spraying in their streets, its Maotai – probably the most evil head-banging kerosene tasting alcoholic spirit ever distilled. Nothing could live in that!

[The VFM Addict]

HTF – Do you know what kerosene tastes like……………..LOL

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Update – Selco, Screwfix, ToolStation and many other Trade Suppliers are not pretty much out of all masks; except few a half face filter cartridge jobs.

Just a thought – Most places still have visors which are easy to clean when you get home and should stop one getting hit directly in the face (mouth, nose or eyes) by droplet blasts from the coughs and splutters of the infected.    Everywhere does them.  They’re £7 at B&Q and don’t look too bad to wear.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Clearly with the flood of cases that this virus causes and the fact that about 18% of cases suffer an infection such as to need hospitalisation (and hence a hospital bed) I thought I’d check and see how we compare beds-wise with the likes of China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Germany, etc.    Fortunately I found all the data in one graph.   GULP !

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Les.]

Well, other than stocking up on non-perishables, I have not done that much in preparation, but I do have some plans. Today I called in at the bank and arranged for a contactless debit card. My normal method is visit bank weekly or every other week, and draw out cash. Then pay everything in cash. I do have a credit card for off-island purchases, and very occasional local use. This way I can reduce contact with dirty coins and notes, and likewise keypads.

Edp, if you do actually rent over here for a few months, you won’t want to go back to “civilisation”.

If you want quiet, try Port Erin, or on the west coast, or up on the northern plains, that is most areas north of Ramsey.

I have a quantity of spray bottles, originally midge repellent, some of which I use for my own brand of midge repellent, others with iso propyl alcohol on my electronics bench. Tamara and I will each carry one of those for convenient cleansing. Plus plenty of vinyl gloves which can go in the hot soap and water after each use.

Edp, stay out of the glens if you are sensitive to the midges. They really are devastating!

Les.

[The VFM Addict]

Not really an option for me, Les, but you are doing a fine selling job for your island.   I love peace and quiet.   I once considered opening a small restaurant with such as its main selling point and calling it “The Quiet Corner”.   I even worked out the kind of things I’d do to ensure it was  quiet like making the price of the Children’s Meal £200.   Not just to keep children out but mainly as a marketing ploy because that would have got lots of free publicity in the media.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

In Australia people are buying sufficient toilet rolls to last for six months, in my part of the world the panic buyers are a little more rational as they have grabbed all the packets of porridge oats. Not one packet to be seen in the local Tesco.

Perhaps Scottish farmers have started a rumour about its curative properties!

We are not concerned as porridge oats already formed a modest element in our Brexit emergency store.

[edit] Les I find midges an unpredictable insect in most places they eat me alive, in some however they leave me alone and feed on my wife. I’m sure I don’t complain as much as she does!

 

[The VFM Addict]

In Italy as I type this there have been 3,089 cases.   Of those 107 are already dead (3.5%).   295 are still critical.   Approx. 50% of criticals typically die so we could be looking at another 147 dead and that assumes none of the other 2,706 cases that remain active ever deteriorate to critical and die.     It is far from inconceivable that out of the 3,089 cases so far there will be at least 254 fatalities (i.e. 107 plus 147) for a final death rate of 8.2%.    Heaven help Italy.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Come to think of it I hope someone has run the genome on the virus in Italy.    The final death rate looks likely to exceed that seen even in Wuhan.   Has this strain mutated which happens faster and more often in RNA viruses.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

It seems to take on a different ‘coat’ from each infected person as there have already been a couple of published ‘genealogy’ trees for the virus showing how the infection has gone from person to person. It seemed to be only some of the original infections that were stable.

[Ed P]

I read that the Government will not be revealing the location(s) of the 36 new infections – obviously the Government still fear panic, and people fleeing from or refusing to enter infected zones. I had been putting off the full N95 mask wearing but I guess it has become necessary if universal mask wearing is not happening.

Btw I think Bob said that such masks do not have filters on their exhaust. Mine does, it may not stop aerosols leaving but would certainly stop any droplets.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

…….  Btw I think Bob said that such masks do not have filters on their exhaust. Mine does, it may not stop aerosols leaving but would certainly stop any droplets.

Bob is right, the valve in basic N95 masks typically has no ‘filter’ although some do.   However, there is typically no straight line airflow through the valve or the valve is on the side of the mask.   Hence droplets which leave the mouth or nose by cough or sneeze on an initially fast and straight trajectory will not reach another person.   Their speed will mean they will impact the valve or mask instead which are so close.    So you are right also.

As an aside – Pressurised Inhalers for Asthma eject their flow at similar speed and in a similar initial flat trajectory to a cough or sneeze.   For this reason most of the output of those inhalers is moving too fast to flow round the 90 degree turn at the back of the throat and as a consequence hits the back of the patient’s throat.   Spacing devices such as the Volumatic when when fitted to those inhalers mean the inhaler’s output is ejected into a large and lengthy chamber giving time for the particles to slow down such that the brochodilator or steroid forms a slower moving cloud which then when inhaled is moving slowly enough that it can be ‘sucked’ around the throat turn by inspiration.   In this fashion lung deposition of the brochodilator or steroid dose is increased by between 40% and 60%.    Studies with radioactive particles loaded into the inhalers, rather than the medicinal compounds, have demonstrated this.   If I had a pound for every time I discussed such with clinicians and medical academics along with showing them and discussing the radioactive particle studies then I’d have a far, far healthier bank account that I do.    I talked little if anything else 9 to 5 for 5 days a week to literally thousands of doctors during one 18 month period of my 20 years in the pharmaceutical industry.   I could probably still talk through the slide set I used for group presentations even now some 30 years later so very reflex did it become due to repetition during that intense 18 month period.   These days modern dry powder inhalers where everything starts off slow are even better and provide double the lung deposition of the pressurised inhalers while also cutting oropharyngeal deposition dramatically.  There is therefore less chance of oral candida (“Thrush”) which is far from being unheard of with pressurised steroid inhalers.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

And to put a black humour smile on everyone’s face try this.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Singapore has a public health medical service which is on par with our NHS, and they seem to be successfully containing their outbreak. It might therefore be instructive to read their latest faq sheet.

link

Their Government handed out four surgical masks to every resident about a month or so into their outbreak, and their statement on masks reads:

“In the case of COVID-19, we know that the infection is spread through droplets. Wearing a mask will protect other people when someone with respiratory symptoms coughs or sneezes, as the mask would trap those droplets and prevent those droplets from spreading and disseminating.

As such, a surgical mask is sufficient for this case and fulfils the important function of preventing a spread if worn properly. The mask should be changed if it gets soiled or stained.”

[Ed P]

Just a caution, although Dettol state that their antiseptic wipes will very likely kill Covid-19 as it does kill other corona viruses, they have not been able to get a sample of the covid-19 for testing.

My number one son has a bunch of school-age kids who are all great virus dispersers.  His wife therefore has the task of making the place reasonably sterile before and after they come back from school. Alcohol gel has been reserved for their tender paws, and she has been using Dettol wipes for door handles, fridge doors etc. All the things they touch before she can inflict hand-washing and gel on them. She has noted that if she isn’t careful to use gloves that protracted use of Dettol can cause a mild skin irritation.

A word of caution then on using a Dettol wipe and plastic bag as a portable sanitizer.

[Author]

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