[Ed P]

The latest ICL report states that on average covid-19 cases double each week. I guess the UK situation for the next month depends on how many false negatives we have had in all the testing carried out here. The ICL report 6 isn’t very sanguine about world testing (two thirds not detected), but did not comment on the UK’s ranking as far as I could tell.

[Les.]

If things start to show up over here, I will curtail our Saturday ride outs, stay at home or walk up the narrow lane that runs past the cottage (2 or 3 vehicles per week) and essential shopping will involve plenty of face coverage (scarf wrapped twice plus “neck sock”) plus M/C goggles which have my prescription lenses. Full ‘bike gear, but likely in the car. I have a small stock of tinned milk and other stuff, very full freezer, plenty of bread and normal flours etc., so we are in with a chance.

Les.

[Ed P]

Iirc the IoM was one of the very last places to get it in the ICL/BBC study. You just have to keep Clarkson et al out!

[edit] and of course no TT.

[Bob Williams]

Reading this puts a little perspective on the panic mongers. Some mask suppliers should be prosecuted.

https://tinyurl.com/t3622xk

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Ed P]

Sorry I disagree – while any spivs who leech on society  (like most capitalists!) should be deprecated, had this Government allowed concerns to grow naturally from the outset everyone would have been able to get the masks they required. Instead we had Mushroom (no worries) Matt and his ilk having to suddenly admit 25 new cases overnight and surprise, surprise panic buying starts to set in.

What the link does not show is that the US and UK alike have warehouses full of masks for such a pandemic, and a whole raft of legislation to support it. link. As a result hospitals and emergency services are well prepared to ride this one out.

If misfits like vfm and I totally distrust the inept bunch of small brained loud mouths that are in charge, and want to support the spivs and ignore the Government shills just leave  us alone to get on with looking out for ourselves and our friends and families. Darwinism in action!

btw the main unpublished reason why Western Governments do not like face masks is that it totally screws up their investment in surveillance equipment.

 

[The VFM Addict]

Bob,

The article you linked to takes the polar opposite position to that in The Guardian (a paper not known for supporting capitalist spivs).  The Guardian says masks can reduce your risk of infection 5 fold, versus no barrier.    The truth lays somewhere between the two in my opinion based on studies I have read.   They are at the very least effective in stopping large droplets of the kind folks launch when sneezing or coughing; and as we know some folks can do that with no warning.   If you are in the range of such and get a face full even without feeling it you will get infected if you are wearing no mask.    Also as I have stated above masks also physically prevent us from inadvertently touching our mouths and noses when out and about with hands they may well have touched an infected surface.   Goggles do the same for eyes.    Most of us touch our faces several times an hour.  Just monitor your own activity this evening to recognise that.   So masks and goggles do reduce one’s chances of getting infected and it is truly nonsense for the article you linked to claim that the don’t.

There is no scaremongering by me in this thread.   I just wanted to ensure Forumites had.have the true facts such as to make informed decisions.   Until today HMG had been hiding much of the truth but this morning Matt Hancock on BBC admitted that the its is a reasonable worst case scenario that half a million will die in the UK of this virus.   That’s what I have been trying to tell all Forumites for a month; so that they could prepare at their leisure before things ran into short supply or became unavailable due to panic buying once HMG started telling the truth.    The Panic Starting Gun was fired this morning by Hancock.   Spring things on folks at this eleventh hour and only now tell them half a million of us in the UK may well die of this was/is certain to cause panic.    There should have been a drip feed over the last month by HMG to reduce sudden shock/panic.   Instead HMG for a month has been saying this thing is not much worse than normal flu; only to today tell the truth.    The flu kills even in this worst season just 16,000 of us in the UK this may kill 500,000.   You can’t compare those two figures, can you?

Do you recall this line from Orwell’s 1984 – “The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.  It was their final, most essential command.”     I didn’t do that I looked at the hard evidence from the start.  Doing that made was was incoming obvious.  Ed, did the same.   We regognise that others may not have had the time to and just assumed what HMG and the MSM were saying was true.    Folks also were lulled into a false sense of security because SARS, MERS and Ebola never amounted to much for us in the UK; and they assumed this was just like them and would fizzle out.    But this virus could be considered to be NINJA SARS.   The infected can infect others even before they have symptoms so it is hard to track.    That’s why numbers are growing so fast across the world.   Moreover this often kills slowly, so folks take up a hospital or ICU bed for weeks.   This will result in something akin to a DoS (Denial of Service) attack on the NHS.    And as the NHS is swamped death rates will rise because those who may have survived it with good intensive care won’t get it because all ICU beds were long since taken by other Critical Covid-19 patients.

Bob, I am not trying to scare you.    Merely telling you the facts so that you realise that you must take every possible step to ensure that you don’t become infected.       Prepare now, pdq, for God’s sake, mate.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

As I said before, people in the front-line with the public such as publicans, restaurateurs, shop-keepers and the like should be encouraged , and not discouraged from wearing masks. Although it will unfortunately not protect all these people from catching anything it will be quite effective in cutting down how much is passed on. They will be wearing masks not to protect themselves, but to protect their customers.

I might at times appear paranoid in my reaction to this disease, to which charge I’d plead guilty, but as @vfm has so often said it isn’t just old pharts such as I that will die slightly early. This nasty disease will kill an unusually high number of young productive people as well. We all have a role in helping to slow down the RATE at which this disease spreads, and we should be using every weapon in our armoury to accomplish that aim. If we can slow it down enough to develop better ways of treating/preventing it then many thousands of our friends and family will live, who would otherwise die.

This Government has been looking at a short-term economic balance sheet in its dissemination of information, and reaction to the disease rather than a longer term strategic view. In my book they have been found wanting, and I will not accept any excuses from them of their not knowing how bad things would get. The BBC/LSE study modelled exactly what was at risk, and what measures are needed to minimise its impact and keep the country running, to which I and others have added a few other inexpensive measures.

[Ed P]

Assuming that this research can be replicated and peer reviewed, it puts to bed the lie that Government shills have been promulgating with respect to the effectiveness of masks.

“It was found that a 50% compliance in donning the device resulted in a significant (at least 50% prevalence and 20% cumulative incidence) reduction in risk for fitted and unfitted N95 respirators, high-filtration surgical masks, and both low-filtration and high-filtration pediatric masks. An 80% compliance rate essentially eliminated the influenza outbreak.”

If Western Governments had promoted the wearing of N95+ masks, and supported such research perhaps we would not now be tottering on the edge of a global recession.

[Ed P]

A follow-up to the last post to head-off valid criticism that mask-wearing did not eliminate covid-19 in Asia. If you carefully analyse pictures and videos of Asian people wearing masks, in nearly all examples the masks that are worn are ill-fitting loop around the ear cotton ‘vanity’ masks rather than N95 or better masks.

[The VFM Addict]

I agree that masks are of great benefit.  I agree that the loose loop paper masks do not appear to have slowed the virus significantly in China but I believe the reasons for such are numerous.

It is true that such paper masks will not filter air as well as do N95 or better masks.   But such filtering is only important if the virus is spreading by aerosol transmission and that as yet is unproven.    The paper masks will still act as a barrier to larger droplets so one would expect to see a reduction in onward infection rates for that reason alone.   I suspect that there was a big difference in oral or nasal acquired infections due to incoming cough or sneeze droplets but that that did not impact the number of total infections for two reasons.

The first it that those loose fitting paper masks are all too easy to slip a finger under without really thinking; if one has a small itch, etc.   They certainly would not prevent self-inoculation with infected hands as well as does a fitted N95 mask which makes finger insertion very difficult and hence would cause pause long enough for it to dawn on one, “Hang on. WTF am I doing”.

The second reason is that masks shut only two of the three facial entry routes for the virus; that is to say they cover mouth and nose but not the eyes.   It matters not if the virus is even totally prevented from entering the mouth and eyes if it is welcomed into the eyes there will be no reduction in total infections in mask wearers.    For this reason I have been banging the goggles drum from the start.   To me it is damned obvious.   Most in China wore masks but very, very, very few wore goggles.   I have not the slightest doubt in my mind that this is the reason masks appeared not to dramatically reduce infection rates.   They probably dropped oral/nasal infections dramatically but this would not be seen in total infection rates because coughs and splatters remained just as potent because the shotgun type blast of each still hit the mask wearer’s eyes.    And of course without goggles one is highly likely to still touch one’s own eyes with infected hands.

Wearing a mask without goggles to me quite patently has the very same vulnerability as did the Maginot Line.   No matter how good that defensive barrier (i.e. the mask) is if it leaves an open door to invasion further north (i.e. the eyes) it will never be as effective as it would otherwise have been.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Richard]

I had an ENT appointment on Thursday and signed off a consent form. I was told not to expect a long wait, it should happen in the next 3 months.

We spent Friday morning packing up and dealing with the odd chore before a weekend trip. Then the phone rang, showing a number like a scammer in Delhi. Happily, it was the NHS, could they do the pre-admission this week and the procedure next week? Short of an emergency admission via A&E that appeared about as fast as things get. Apparently, they are keen to keep breathing cases flowing through the system. So, no panic or concern beyond business as slightly better than usual.

Over the weekend we did over five hundred miles, the slow roadworks saved fuel meaning over 60 mpg but a tiring twelve hours of driving.

[RSB]

Well it seems Bradford has it’s first case and West Yorkshire 3 cases so I’ll be on the look out for infected people and will avoid like the plague. I will not beat arround the bush but there are lots of diffrent ethnic groups and to be honest I dont care how this sounds but 1 or 2 of those groups have no sense of hygeine what so ever. I am forever reporting them for throwing rubish and dirty nappies out on the street and so on. I can see the virus rapidly going out of control in bradford.

Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

[Les.]

The John Hopkins website was only absent for a couple of days, but the graphs were absent until this weekend. It is instructive to look at the log view again. There are three lines, total infected, total recovered and infections outside China. That last one looks like the total (= China only) from a couple of weeks ago. That is, still on an upward curve. Without the “China segregation”, it will stay on upward trend.

Now compare Italy with Iran. Italy. Italy 1700 cases, 34 deaths. Iran 980 cases, 54 deaths! Who do they think they are kidding. A simple pro rata calculation sats 2,700 cases in Iran! Here is a thought; What happens if it takes out all the OLD theocracy. Will the population regain (correction, GAIN) control?

We live in interesting times. Long may we continue to live in them.

A personal tale; an email from Daughter in Law yesterday:–

Yes lots on Vorona iris over here – it is frightening the children – Francesca asked me if she was going to die a couple of days ago and said she didn’t want to as she was only 9 and had only just got here whereas it was different for me as I would be dying soon anyway!! I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry!

Went to get hand gel for us all today as hand washing seems to be key – all sold out already so managed just to get all of us a pack of anti bacterial hand wipes in WH Smith’s of all places . Let’s hope it’s all ok – I think you will be fine as island probably a good place to be and I think those who have worst outcome are 80+ with significant underlying med condition.

I sent a message of general reassurance for Francesca.

Les.

[The VFM Addict]

Les,

Don’t know if you read my earlier post which included the words –

‘So what age groups make up the majority of the fallen when struck by this virus?   Well the WHO joint mission to China reached the following conclusions:

The median age of the fallen is 51 years old.

50% of the fallen (known as the IQR) reside between 39 and just 63 years of age.

75% (yes, the vast majority) of the fallen reside between 30 and 69 years of age.’

So, Les, although the old are at considerable risk most deaths will occur in the age range 30 to 69 if it plays out here as it has in China.

I am still of the very firm opinion that masks and goggles are an absolute must when out even if only because they prevent us from inadvertently touching our faces with hands that are infected when out.  It is all to easy to do that and soon the chances that there is virus on door handles, hand rails or supermarket baskets & trolleys will be far from remote as more become infected.

If one can find them them masks are worth buying now along with goggles even if one puts off wearing them until the numbers of infected grow and one will be less self-conscious wearing them because many others are doing so also.   Be aware that once this explodes it will go from dozens to tens of thousands in the matter of 10-15 days and hundreds of thousands a further ten or twelve days after that.    Trying to buy masks longer at that point will be harder than finding rocking horse droppings on the far side of the moon.

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Richard wrote:

I had an ENT appointment on Thursday and signed off a consent form. I was told not to expect a long wait, it should happen in the next 3 months. We spent Friday morning packing up and dealing with the odd chore before a weekend trip. Then the phone rang, showing a number like a scammer in Delhi. Happily, it was the NHS, could they do the pre-admission this week and the procedure next week? Short of an emergency admission via A&E that appeared about as fast as things get. Apparently, they are keen to keep breathing cases flowing through the system. So, no panic or concern beyond business as slightly better than usual. Over the weekend we did over five hundred miles, the slow roadworks saved fuel meaning over 60 mpg but a tiring twelve hours of driving.

Glad your op is taking place asap.   But to suggest there is no concern in the NHS regarding the thousands of new Covid-19 respiratory cases due to arrive in the near future, when even now the NHS is already at full stretch, borders on the preposterous.   I’m not one bit surprised that your unit is “keen to keep breathing cases flowing through the system”.    Getting everything done that can conceivably be done before the tsunami hits makes absolute sense.    I suspect that had you not been getting your op done pronto then it may have been a year or more before a window within which it could be done ever returned.    You are luckily on the right side of the cusp it seems.  How lucky you are I believe from your words you still do not realise.   But I have not the slightest doubt you’ll have proof of that long before March comes to an end.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

At 2.35pm yesterday I wrote……..

The VFM Addict wrote:

…………….   Europe inc. the UK has now had 1,167 cases to time of this post. That’s already almost twice as many as the 639 cases China had as recently ago as 23 January. Even I, who clearly from my OP on 23 January suspected that this virus would be of huge consequence to the world, am, as I look back shocked at its speed of growth. It is almost surreal. I wonder if Europe will be every bit as injured a month and a week from today as China now is a month and a week from 23 January? Especially given that our starting blocks for such a five week period sit at 1,167 and China’s sat at only 639 for theirs.

Here we are fractionally less than 24 hours later and cases in Europe have as near as damn doubled.   They stand at 2,279 versus 1,167 at the same time yesterday.   That’s an insane doubling rate – just 24 hours.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I would encourage anyone concerned about the future to write to their MP and complain that the Government has been too complacent in its handling of SAR-Covid-19. If we are not very careful we will quickly go from a  couple of handfuls of cases to being forced into regional lock-downs with no intermediate steps.

I have zero confidence in the way the Government has handled it so far, and I have written to my MP to express my dissatisfaction.

[edit] I’m not too surprised at a 24 hour doubling in cases. Certainly our government has been lying to us, and I expect a similar lack of truth from others.

Just wait for Indonesia to come clean — two cases pah!! Two thousand is more likely.

[Ed P]

Just to make sure you rattle when you walk, the BMJ published some research back in 2017 which showed that vitamin D supplementation is of value in fending off severe respiratory illnesses. (It effect is greatest for those who are vitamin D deficient.)

[RSB]

Thats good, I am on prescription for 20’000 IU HuxD3 colecaliferol.

Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

[RSB]

I wonder if a load of Alchol will help kill it off. G & T for example 🙂

Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

[Author]

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