[The VFM Addict]

RSB wrote:

I am guessing when it gets really bad in north korea they will blame south korea or trump and send of some nukes. Or secondly they will be on there knees and trump will come to the rescue demanding this, that or the other.

I’m sure if Fat Boy Kim launched a few hot ones Trump would indeed provide antiviral assistance immediately by return airmail that would eradicate the virus totally from North Korea.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Very high percentage jump in the number of German, Austrian and Spanish cases today and the European day is very far from over.   I expect a very large jump in Italian cases when they issue their daily report about 6.00pm today.

At this rate by the end of the coming week Europe could well have several thousands cases from which point experience shows that the growth in numbers truly starts to take off.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

And on a light hearted tack, I just overheard my first coronavirus joke earlier.    A middle aged chap behind me in the shopping queue in Iceland was chatting to two chaps just behind him (who I presume he knew and had bumped into from the way they were chatiing).    My ears pricked up when I heard him tell them that there was a case of Corona in Tesco’s (which is just down the road).    The look on their faces and I suspect mine was one of alarm.    He then, after having suckered us all in, and after a long moments pause said that the Fosters had been cheaper so he had picked up a case of that instead.    One of the other two chaps said laughingly to him, “You bar-steward”.    

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I cannot argue with the premise that a measure of fear is required. There is however a very real danger if too much change is done too quickly.

When I was a lot younger I was involved in some very real crisis management, and as usual we had a ‘consultant’ to help us. Unusually, he was actually quite useful and said that humans en-mass can be modelled by chaos theory or classical instrument control. If you suddenly move from a constant base to a new position you can pretty much bet there will be an overshoot. i.e Mushroom Matt’s complacency to having to do something can easily move into panic.

From a crisis management standpoint it would have been much better to eliminate the complacency, and start with small measures that are steadily evolved based on news from the rest of the world (feed-forward control). Instead our bunch of Governmental lightweights are pretty much ignoring everything that has been learned about crisis management!

[Ed P]

Why do I have to go to the Singapore Straits Times to get good UK news – link.

If we did not have such a bunch of thickos in charge of the country they should have been using this to say that this is why it is important to delay the onset of the virus etc etc

[The VFM Addict]

Any delay which staggers the numbers being infected over a longer period than might otherwise be the case means that the pressure placed on the NHS at any one point in time will be less.   So folks; work from home if possible; take your annual leave early and stay home; teleconference when possible to avoid meetings.   Literally do anything and everything you can to reduce your physical contact with others.    If we don’t and this hits all of us at roughly the same time then more of the UK populations will die, because the NHS will have far less chance to cope.

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Did I truly start this thread so little time ago?

By 23 January 2020, China had had far less than a thousand cases, only 639.  That was the day I started this thread with the words that sit at the top of every page of it.   I think we have all, me included, failed to truly grasp fully how very quickly this has grown.   Just a month and a week further on from 23 January the world is where it is today.    Is seems like longer, doesn’t it?

Europe inc. the UK has now had 1,167 cases to time of this post.    That’s already almost twice as many as the 639 cases China had as recently ago as 23 January.    Even I, who clearly from my OP on 23 January suspected that this virus would be of huge consequence to the world, am, as I look back shocked at its speed of growth.   It is almost surreal.

I wonder if Europe will be every bit as injured a month and a week from today as China now is a month and a week from 23 January?   Especially given that our starting blocks for such a five week period sit at 1,167 and China’s sat at only 639 for theirs.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[RSB]

I have just seen on the front page of a paper it’s been passed onto dogs.

Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

[RSB]

I was looking forward to euros 2020. No word on it being prosponed yet but it seems likely. Flooding, Volcanos, dust storms, fires, drought, syria, teroists, viruses, donald trump and possibly now euros 2020. Armagedon I tell you.

Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

[Ed P]

Interesting article in Reuters about the Korean outbreak.

If the facts in the article are accurate, then covid-19 is very like SARS in that it seems to be spread by superspreaders who infect 10 or more people, and that many people are nowhere near as infectious.  Apart from the obvious incentive to quickly identify and quarantine such super-spreaders, the main finding in the SARS case was to eliminate large gatherings of people e.g. football matches, churches, schools and other public gatherings.

[Wheels-Of-Fire]

Did anyone watch the TV show about super spreaders ? It was a BBC project but I watched it on Dave a few weeks ago.

[The VFM Addict]

How fitting that today is 29 February this being a Leap Year.   So it will be then.   Into the greatest unknown which I can ever remember we now all leap……………….

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

At 2.35pm I totalled the cases in Europe (inc. the UK) for my post at that time (above).   It was 1,167 cases.   Just undertook the same exercise to gauge if there had been any developments since then.   Well here we are just six and a half hours later and its up to 1,465 cases.  I note that in the number is Luxembourg’s first case.   I bet Luxembourg has already offered the virus low corporate taxes.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

I see Wales has had its first case.

Re super spredders, look up typhoid Mary. I bet there is one or two like her today

[Ed P]

The Guardian has broken ranks with an article that could have been titled – ‘The lies the Government have told about the virus!’. Nothing new for those who have read VFM’ posts, but interesting to see that the media have reached the point of ignoring the D-Notice that has obviously been placed on them.

One thing that was slightly new to me was their statement about face masks: “… some studies have estimated a roughly five-fold protection versus no barrier. “.

If our Government of fools had even the slightest bit of sense they would be recommending masks should be worn by anyone whose job entails serving the public”

 

[Ed P]

Unless you have a bit of background in microbiology you probably don’t want to delve too deeply into this paper in Nature. Even the over-view is a bit turgid, but what it implies is that because ACE2 is expressed differently in different genetic backgrounds that the Covid-19 virus attacks certain races worse than others. It appears to show that those from an Asian descent are more badly affected than any other race with those from an African descent being least affected. The study even shows differences for the races within China (as an aside there are 50 or so visually different peoples within China, with Han being the predominant one) .

A word of caution, this data looks to be very preliminary, but it partially explains why some people get the virus worse than others. It also pretty much nails the lie that the Chinese developed this as a bio-weapon. Who (other than the idiots in OUR Government) would develop a weapon that preferentially attacks themselves!

[The VFM Addict]

I must admit I am somewhat sceptical that masks offer up to a five fold protection versus no barrier.    All studies I have seen are neutral or conclude there is some small protection without putting a figure on it.

As we are all inclined to touch our faces (mouth, nose and eyes) many times an hour  the core benefit of masks and goggles may well be, rather than stopping airborne ingestion, is that they prevent us from self-inoculation with any virus we may have picked up on our hands by touching our mouths, noses or eyes while out and about.     So even the basic paper mask work in that respect.    If, and the jury is still out on this, airborne aerosol transmission is occurring (rather than only larger droplet splutter from cough cod sneezes which have a shorter range) then a better mask is required – one rated either N95, N100, FFP2 or FFP3.   Sometimes the FFP2 is called simply P2.    There are versions of each that have no valve but the valved versions are best if you can find them because without a valve the vapour in our breath as we exhale tends to build up in the mask making it damp, dirty and less effective far sooner.    This video provides instructions about putting on a mask and is correct no matter what type of mask one wears; except the very basic paper ones which sometimes have no mouldable metal nose strip.   By the way if using the very basic paper ones the coloured side is the outside and the white is face-side.   My opinion is that even if only to prevent one touching ones mouth, nose and eyes with infected hands when out and about masks and goggles are a must.

I agree with Ed that mask wearing should be implemented immediately for those serving the public.   HMG and/or employers should mandate it not just for those in the NHS.   My biggest concerns are the Police and Pharmacists.   The Police often have to get extremely up close with numerous people during their day and the risk of infection will be very high.    We are going to need every officer we have during this epidemic and simply cannot afford for large numbers to go off sick.   Pharmacies will be full of infected individuals looking for remedies for what that individual has decided is just a cold or normal flu.   As the majority of the infected never become serious and will be unaware they have this virus it may well be that more of the infected visit pharmacies than visit hospitals.    My conclusion is therefore that pharmacies will be extremely virus laden environments.   Pharmacists or Pharmacy staff who do not wear masks and goggles during this will to my mind be foolhardy in the extreme.   When attending our pharmacy not only will it be mask and goggles for me it will also be disposable gloves and one of those clear plastic ponchos that can be picked up for a pound and disposed of along with the gloves promptly afterwards.

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Ed, I can’t remember where I saw them but I saw two different papers which refuted that the different numbers of ACE2 receptors found in different races would significantly impact susceptibility to this virus.  One argued that no significant differences are seen in other areas of medicine where ACE2 receptors play a part in a condition or in medications used to treat such.    The other paper argued that already we are seeing no CFR difference between Chinese regions (other than Wuhan) versus those of different ethnic origins.   For me the big cruncher is the data from SARS; which also traverses via ACE2 receptors.   Canada had the highest CFR with SARS; 17%.   Higher than any Far East country.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Actually Taiwan (almost predominantly Han Chinese, who are racially very similar to Japanese/Korean — you can recognise Han by their ‘long’ faces) had the highest CFR at 27%. However I would not argue the toss on this one as the Nature paper looked very preliminary, and almost prematurely rushed to publication.

Thanks for the comments on surgical masks, I wondered why they were bicoloured! I’ll start my 3M N95 mask-wearing next week, but I’ll skip the goggles as I wear spectacles. As an aside, if anyone is tempted to purchase an N95/100 half mask, do read the comments as some masks appear badly made and correspondingly ill-fitting.

The Guardian article I linked earlier has one extremely interesting comment in it by Health Workers – the NHS hospital system will grind to a halt if schools are closed, as staff will have to leave the hospitals to look after their children. An interesting ‘damned if you do and damned if you don’t’ as the BBC/ICL Pandemic study showed that schools are a hot-bed of virus transmission. (the latter is a finding I’ll personally endorse as we always come down with a bug following a visit by the grandchildren).

[The VFM Addict]

I stand corrected there re the highest SARS CFR.   At times I am now suffering from data overload.   I should have double checked before posting.

I also wear glasses.  All I have read is that normal glasses provide little protection.   Indeed looking at myself I find I often adjust my glasses multiple times an hour (though not as much as Bill Gates does his) so in my case my glasses seem to increase hand to eye contact.    Luckily my goggles fit over them easily.    What I have found is that they actually hold my glasses in place so both the need to adjust my glasses does not arise and I am physically prevented from hand to eye contact.    I do though keep a few extra tissues with me plus a small bottle of santizer gel so that if I have to take off the goggles for any reason I can clean both my hands and the goggles before putting them back on.    I’ve noticed in images from China that it is not uncommon for medics to wear both goggles and a face visor.    I’ve passed on that for the time being although if my locale were to become an dense outbreak hotspot I might just add one to my PPE.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Listen Up

Hancock is at last beginning to come clean.    He admits half a million UK deaths is a “reasonable worst-case scenario”.     Normal flu kills at most 16,000 a year in the UK even in its worst years.     This is far, far more deadly.     Prepare just in case and prepare PDQ.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Now here’s the BBC spin.   The BBC know that most folks just read the BBC’s text summary and won’t play Hancock’s interview in full.   Go read the BBC text.  Not a single mention of the fact that up to half a million could die.    The Independent text linked in my above post told it like it is.   The BBC seek to conceal the reality by never mentioning it.    Proof positive that the BBC has been and are continuing playing down the truth.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Author]

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