[Ed P]

A question from ignorance – in what manner is covid-19 tested when saying a patient is ‘free’?

As I understand it covid-19 makes its attack via the three three routes in which the ACE2 protein is found, i.e. in the lungs, liver and kidneys, and these are subsequent replication sites. If only a sputum test is used will this only pick up lung secretions, and could not a low level replication still be taking place in the kidneys and liver? If that logic is correct then both urine and stool samples should also be tested before declaring someone ‘free’.

[The VFM Addict]

I am uncertain which sites Japan are swabbing.   ACE2 receptors exist in the gut also.

Ideally, rectal swabs should be used because studies have shown that such provide evidence of remaining infection even after oral/nasal swabs are showing clear.     If the virus impedes the function of cilia (small hair like structures in our respiratory tract that brush upwards to clear debris from our lungs) then towards the end of an infection there would be no or close to nil virus in the mouth and nose.   It is a different story in the gut.    Because there is nothing  to suggest this virus impedes peristalsis (the downward periodic contractions that move gut content for evacuation via the bowels). Therefore evidence of the virus would and studies confirm does, persist longer such as to be found with rectal swabbing.    I’ll try to find out where Japan are swabbing.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

If you have a runny nose then you can be 95% certain that you do NOT have covid-19 even if all the rest of the flu symptoms are there. AFAIK no cases of runny noses have been noted for covid-19 cases. Common or garden flu is the likely diagnosis, especially if you have children who go to Play school/KinderGarden Porton Down’s labs.

Mushroom Matt should be publicising this to alleviate understandable public concerns, but I doubt that they will!

[The VFM Addict]

There are reports of a runny nose and sneezing but they are rare and far less than 5%.  However, a recommendation such as you suggest by MM carries some dangers.   A common cold and normal flu can co-exist with this virus.   Hence symptoms of such do not exclude you being infected with the virus; although I agree that in the main it would be unlikely to be dual infection.   This does mean though that if you already have a cold or normal flu you might put the symptoms of this virus down to such and seek help only once shortness of breath was severe.   Possibly too late for medical intervention to succeed.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Advice (albeit US Centric and a bit dated) that the Government should have given can be found here:

Perhaps the key advice for the unprepared is given at the end –

It doesn’t matter what viruses are circulating; shortness of breath is a concerning condition, and so is chest pain. Seek medical care if you have these symptoms. Maybe it’s coronavirus, maybe it’s something else threatening your health.

[The VFM Addict]

That’s very sound advice, Ed.

Looking at the current cases across Europe (inc. UK) it is clear that by far most cases were seeded by Italy just as most in the Far East were seeded by China and in the Middle East has been and is being seeded by Iran.    As regards Europe and the Middle East, I am anticipating a huge increase in both regions over the next 10 days; which is of course exactly what happened in the Far East initiated by China.   The next 10 days will beyond question tell us how rapidly things are likely to progress from this point forward because that they will progress eventually is a racing certainty.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

This makes sense to me from China’s reactions so far.   For the record the population of Wuhan is 11 Million about 1/6th the population of the UK.

 

*********** NOTE the above link vanished two minutes ago.   It referenced a Wuhan document and included the following narrative ****************

Official report says over 400K severe and chronic #COVID19 patients have a problem getting medicine & the new #CCP secretary of #Wuhan is very “angry” about it. So, they are admitting there are over 400K #Coronavirus patients in Wuhan? That’s new to us.

 

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Belarus, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Mexico and New Zealand have joined the party today with their first case.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

I’m not sure that it is ‘new’ as 400K in 11 MM is only about 4% far less than the 20% who would we are told fall into the severe category, but close to the number you would expect to be critical – maybe the tough choices of who do you save are starting to bite. (I’m assuming Wuhan is at or close to the 60% saturation point for infections)

What is however new is that they are running out of medication – not too surprising as it will take some while to resuscitate mothballed/dismantled chloroquine production. (not an ‘easy’ process as it has multiple steps even assuming precursors are easily available – my guess one to three months to ramp up from zero). A previous link said that China were resurrecting an old Bayer plant, but even that could take a month to effect.

[Ed P]

Out of interest I tried to find out where chloroquine is produced. The only links I could find lead back to Bayer and Merck, so lets hope Cummings does not upset the Germans or Swiss too much. I still do not know where the world’s manufacturing units are situated – loads of web pages on the medical side and Safety, but naff all on chloroquine production.

I do not think Glaxo-Smith-Kline in the UK make it, but maybe one of the smaller specialist companies does. I suspect some small pharma company is now wondering how it can ramp up production.

Strange omission from any data given its place on the WHO list of essential safe medications. (wider medical uses than anti-malarial).

[The VFM Addict]

Although Chloroquine Phosphate was originally a Bayer product marketed under the Resochin brand name (and still is) it has long, long since been out of any form of patent or licence licence, so anyone can produce a generic version.    Alliance Pharmaceuticals who make the Avloclor Branded CP have their UK corporate offices in Chippenham, Wiltshire.   The packets I have very clearly state “Made in the United Kingdom”.

Usually that means manufactured entirely in the UK; although on very rare occasions it can mean the tablets were pressed and packaged in the UK with the base compound sourced from elsewhere.   I suspect though that Alliance, a rapidly growing company, do actually produce it in the UK.  I’ll bet they have been ramping production at a pace already.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

BTW the likes of Astra-Zeneca and GSK have no interest in generics usually.   Both often sell products on to competitors once a compound is about to come off licence (i.e. their patent is about to run out).

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Good thought – if MAH corresponds to a manufacturing facility, then Alliance is our sole manufacturer. France and Germany may have more. link to pdf

[edit] Maybe not, as some of the products just look like different packaging.

[Ed P]

The brown stuff just hit the fan in the UK, the latest covid-19 victim from Surrey caught the disease within the UK apparently from an unknown source.

“It is unclear whether this was “directly or indirectly” from someone who recently returned from abroad, England’s chief medical officer said.”

[Ed P]

In the BBC documentary ‘Contagion’, patient zero (the unknown source of the pandemic), wandered around in Haslmemere Surrey. In a strange imitation of fiction, the actual Patient One first went into the Haslemere Surgery and was diagnosed with Covid-19.

The R0 of the simulated disease is very similar (perhaps a bit lower) than covid-19. If you therefore want to get an idea how long it will be before covid-19 hits your area – watch the BBC IPlayer version!

I shall don my mask and goggles for outside trips towards the end of next week!

[The VFM Addict]

I’d advise sooner, Ed.   The virus is already among us.

**************************************************************

I do feel there is too much of a misconception that it is overwhelmingly the very old with co-morbidities that have anything to fear from this virus.   It is a message we often hear in the MSM and even many medics are also touting it.   The public assume therefore that it is correct.   Therein resides the danger of a kind always recognised  by Stephen Hawking who said, “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge.”.

The true facts re age groups at risk do no support the current message coming from many medics via the MSM.   Many have not bothered to look at the facts.  I was shocked last night when on LBC a guest physician said that this virus has a lower mortality rate than normal flu.   The presenter, the prominent journalist, Andrew Pierce, said that was reassuring to hear.   But it was total bovine excrement.   Flu has a Case Fatality Rate of 0.1% and the WHO are clear that their preliminary assessment is that the CFR of this virus is somewhere between 2%-3%.  That is to say 20 to 30 times more deadly than normal flu.

So what age groups make up the majority of the fallen when struck by this virus?   Well the WHO joint mission to China reached the following conclusions:

The median age of the fallen is 51 years old.

50% of the fallen (known as the IQR) reside between 39 and just 63 years of age.

75% (yes, the vast majority) of the fallen reside between 30 and 69 years of age.

That’s not the message being touted by the MSM is it?   The MSM message is the very illusion of knowledge that Stephen Hawking highlighted as so dangerous.   It leads many to think that the majority of the dead will be 70 years of age or older.   Which in turn means that that those who are younger than such will not feel at risk and hence will take precautions no greater than they take each year to avoid getting flu.   Probably no more than stand back when someone is coughing and spluttering.    The younger than 70 are perhaps about to have their ‘Somme Moment’.    At the first battle of the Somme our troops were told nothing to worry about our artillery has mashed the Hun and you can simply saunter across no-mans-land with nothing to fear.   Well we all know what actually happened there, don’t we.

The false message currently being touted by many in HMG, quite a lot of doctors and the MSM is that this is hardly any worse than normal flu and only the very old are likely to fall.  That is not a message likely to persuade those younger than 70 to take all possible steps to ensure they don’t catch the virus of it they do to take steps to ensure they don’t pass it on.   The current entirely false message disincentivises those younger than 70 to go to the bother of taking any proper precautions; and that will be in major part the reason why this virus will spread so much faster in the UK than it might otherwise have done.    To my mind there will be much blood on the hands of all those who have touted this virus as being little more dangerous than normal flu and hence only the very old have anything to fear.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Although I cannot dispute those numbers, the world has to keep going. Someone has to man the hospitals, run the delivery trucks, or the factories. We cannot all self isolate. We therefore need to find a compromise way of coping that minimises the spread of the virus. Panic does no-one any good, and because the majority of people are of average intelligence to some extent the truth needs to be sugar coated. However Mushroom Matt Hancock went far too far by burying the reality of the situation in pabulum.

The Government now has the very tricky task of managing public perceptions and changing habits to reduce the rate of spread. There are simple measures that they should be encouraging e.g. work from home or super-flex time for City Workers. Encourage people to use home delivery of food via Internet Shopping (stores would need to shift check out staff onto picking). There are a whole variety of simple measures such as *encouraging face mask use that could be taken that would cut down actual transmission rates.

• Although surgical face masks do little to stop viruses they do discourage people touching their mouth/eyes.

Unfortunately this bunch of Government incompetents are not even making noises about such moves, and are even discouraging the wearing of masks.

[Ed P]

Our useless Government had better start taking proactive action quickly. I see that South Korea has hit the tipping point with 813 new cases. It seems to take only a short time to go from a handful of cases to thousands.

[RSB]

I am guessing when it gets really bad in north korea they will blame south korea or trump and send of some nukes. Or secondly they will be on there knees and trump will come to the rescue demanding this, that or the other.

Americans: Over Sexed, Over Payed and Over here, Wat Wat!

[The VFM Addict]

I do feel the term ‘Panic’ is in general currently being over used or rather misused.   Panic is the state of being ‘overwhelmed’ by fear and anxiety.   Seeking to generate a level of fear proportionate to the threat is not counterproductive.    Fear is a vital component to ensuring that humans respond sufficiently to a threat.   Note that a typical debt chasing letter seeks to cause one to take action one might not otherwise have taken (i.e. pay up) by seeking to instill fear of a CCJ impacting one’s credit ratings and incurring increased debt due having to repay also the creditors court costs.   It is typically impossible to motivate any human to take inconvenient action without instilling in them fear of the consequences of not acting.   This principle of human nature is currently forgotten by HMG.    The HMG message is in effect you should do this or do that but even if you don’t there will be no consequences for you worth truly worrying out.

Seeking to instil an appropriate level of fear is not the same as seeking to scaremonger or cause panic.   Returning to the debt analogy – The raison d’etre of threatening court action is not to cause panic.   Rather it is to identify the grievous consequences of inaction, generate fear of them, and make clear the action required to negate that adverse outcome (i.e. pay up).

The format and rationale of message re this virus should to my mind be to communicate the message in similar fashion to that used in debt recovery.  In essence – Look folks there is something substantial here to truly fear but if and only if you take these actions the threat can be reduced to negligible.   This will both fully motivate people to act immediately and tell them exactly what those actions should be.

Unless the truly grievous consequences of inaction and the true magnitude of those consequences is made absolutely clear then almost invariably inaction is all that will occur.     Right now the HMG/MSM message is almost universally catastrophically under-weighted.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

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