[The VFM Addict]

Given the R0 (onward infection rate) of this virus is assessed to be somewhere between 2.3 and 2.6 others being infected by each case then the total daily figures for new cases should only begin to fall off once between 60% and 70% of the population is infected; because only then will the virus begin to have difficulty finding fresh victims with no developed immunity.

It follows that either 60%+ of China’s population has already been infected (something not totally beyond the realms of possibility) or China is feeding us a load of bovine excrement about the increased number of new cases each day.     I suspect it’s the latter and that such spin about new cases now being close to non–existent is not for our benefit but instead to persuade China’s own workforce that it is now safe to go back to work.    China cannot really afford for its industrial output to remain as low as it has been of late for very much longer.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Although local officials have a well established track record of lying to Central Government, I think the fate of the Wuhan mayor has probably brought a strong measure of honesty to this particular party. I think that those unfamiliar with China are unaware of the barriers that the Chinese can and do place on freedom of movement, and the relative ease with which they can isolate regions, towns and even villages. I think we may be seeing localised burnout and that is slowing the overall rate of infection.

This article may shed a little light on how the Chinese  ‘hukou’ system works when things were ‘easy’.  I can well remember the difficulties my translator had to deal with to accompany me from Beijing to Urumqui in the far west despite that being a semi-official visit. Twenty years ago the Chinese could make travel ‘easy’ as they did into Shenzhen (the Silicon Valley of China), or extremely difficult as they did for visits into or out of sensitive Uyghur areas such as Urumqui.  They could switch areas on and off seemingly at will.

[Bob Williams]

Great link Ed, explains China, the CCP and how it has such a grip on its people. You have had some great experiences.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[Bob Williams]

At last the BEEB have woken up and begun reporting something approaching the truth:

https://tinyurl.com/vq5eetn

Hope it continues.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

There it is again in the link that Bob posted.   The soldiers in Milan have masks but no goggles.   When will folks wise up.   The virus can enter nose, mouth and eyes.     Plus one is also more likely to unintentionally rub one’s eyes if one is not wearing goggles thereby increasing still further the chances of infection via that route.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

The Beeb ‘medical/health’ correspondent is slowly unwinding his position as a Government shill, but we are still in the ‘lets not frighten the horses’ phase and he continues to downplay the risks.

I maintain that there is a lot this inept Government could do/have done to reduce risks e.g. gel stations, but it still seems to have its head up its nether end and is denying the reality of the situation.

In days gone by, during previous threats to the Nation,  the Government of the day convened meetings of affected industries to ensure that they had a comprehensive Plan B. For example the major Supermarkets would have been asked to examine their distribution systems to ensure that they had backup plans if a depot was put into quarantine, and if that happened that Industry sharing plans could be put into effect without incurring the wrath of the Monopolies Commission. I fear that this inept bunch of *ankers have done nothing as that involves too much imagination, detail and information sharing.

As Bob said — We are doomed!

[Ed P]

Just to add to the inanity of our Government’s head in the nether end, Imperial College London have just stated in their latest Report 6 that two thirds of exported Covid-19 cases have been undetected and will have resulted in multiple chains of infection that are still waiting to be identified.

Given the <28 day incubation period of covid-19 we still have a couple of weeks to go before we can say that we are over that particular hurdle, or looking on the pessimistic side we could get a huge rash of infections within the next few weeks.

[Les.]

I have been opening the link to the john Hopkins university site with the coroavirus statistics daily since VFM linked it here about one month ago. Did the same this morning as usual, no problem. This afternoon my pal visited (not been here for a couple of weeks with the cold and windy weather and his asthma). I showed him the site with all its numbers and graphs, then said that I would update it to see what changes since this morning. It would not load. i tried leaving it, and again later. I just tried again, and got a log in request. It looks as if it is now closed off to us simple folk.

[Ed P]

The WHO site has all that you will need, just go to the latest report.

WHO link

[Les.]

A different question, so I thought a separate message. What happened to the Spanish flu after 2019. Did it just die out, or did we all develop immunity so that it is no longer a problem.

I had wondered about this, but yesterday talking to Tamara she reminded me that her grandfather died from that epidemic. He was (or had been) a General in the Russian Navy. When the flu’s chaos  started to spread, and the red Army came to Odessa, many of the aristocracy left the area for sanctuary abroad. He however caught it and died as a result, Feb 1920. He was 67 at the time, so I guess it took older ones first like the present pandemic.

Les

[Ed P]

I think it petered out once it had infected >60% of the population. If anything that flu was a lot worse as it preferentially killed the under 25s by over-stimulating their immune system, old pharts only had a mild illness by comparison. Covid-19 knocks off the other end and preferentially kills old pharts.

[The VFM Addict]

HMG says the NHS is well prepared.   Well then it must have more than quadrupled its number of staff this last month and bought in at least 40 thousand ventilators machines over the last month.  Because two out of three critical patients (3% of confirmed Covid-19 patients) require intubation for at least a week and often up to 4 weeks.

Crude calculations establish that allowing for a bell shaped distribution of presenting Covid-19 patients which peaks at three times the average number of cases per day during the epidemic; then at peak a minimum of 50K patients will need to be on a ventilator at any one time.     Normally, the NHS has far less than 2K patients on ventilators on any given day.   I would therefore hazard a guess that it probably has far less than 10K ventilators in its inventory.    This means that preparedness would require it to have bought in at least another 40K machines.     I’ll bet it hasn’t.

Again crude calculations  – It appears that if you become infected and progress to severe/critical then you are likely to have only a one in five chance of getting the ventilation you need in order to survive.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Doesn’t add up does it?

Our gates have been wide open and people have been arriving in the UK from China, HK, South Korea, Singapore, Iran, etc. etc since this all began with effectively no checking.   Folks are infectious even before they have any symptoms so are invisible and cannot be clinically diagnosed at time of arrival.

Yet to date we are told there have been only 13 cases in the UK – Those originating from the Alps Super Spreader plus one solitary incoming female Chinese National that self-presented for testing and then finally the four cases of those repatriated from the Diamond Princess.    This just doesn’t add up.   Unless the virus has heard of the Windrush scandal and refuses to enter such a hostile environment…………LOL

It simply must be that either HMG is aware of others cases and has kept it quiet (which is possible but I doubt to be the situation) – or – infected individuals have been entering and acting as viral time bombs infecting others unknowingly and which will suddenly explode and become visible only once incubation fuses burn out.

Will we soon mimic Italy’s sudden explosion of cases?    To me it seems certain that we will; probably some time this week.   Does anyone rationally expect anything different?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

How do you know whether you have Winter Flu or SARS-Covid-19?

An analysis of 50000+ confirmed Covid cases gives the answer:  link

91% of patients had a fever

71% had a cough

41% Had muscle aches or weaknesses

15% Had acute difficulty with breathing

A CT scan is the clincher as 96% had an abnormal scan

Bottom line, if you have a cough and fever then SARS-Covid-19 is the probable cause. (Make sure that you have a thermometer in the house)

Of the Covid cases, 21% were severe enough to require hospitalisation, and 5% of all cases died. Put differently, roughly 25% of people hospitalised subsequently died.

I guess one can also infer from the statistics that roughly 10% of people are symptomless Covid-19 carriers!

[Ed P]

Covid-19 will save the Black Rhino, Tigers and Pangolins from extinction as China has just banned the sale and consumption of wild animals. Unlike earlier bans this one looks permanent as Covid-19 and the Wuhan wet market has caused too much economic damage to China. (In passing, it also puts another nail into the bio-weapon theory)

link

All we need now is to export covid-19 to Africa which will hopefully give rise to similar restrictions on Bush Meat.  If this happens, David Attenborough and the WWF will become redundant.🙄

[Richard]

I took heed of the comments about Magnesium and after finding a supply I started a short while back. I have also adjusted my seating arrangements with the PC. Recently, I have noticed an improvement in both my nasal situation and a slight, though welcome reduction leg pain. This has been handy as due to NHS ‘efficiency’, my appointment with the spinal surgeon as cancelled last Friday… It is now set for early March.

Returning to the subject of Covid-19, I find it interesting that so far there are reports of almost endemic levels in China and Hong Kong, then hot-spots in Korea and Italy and suspicions of widespread infections in Iran, with random travellers going to other locations. It is noticeable the Singapore conference delegate apparently become an efficient spreader when in close proximity to others, e.g. while in a chalet on his alpine holiday, but evidently less so when more distant.

The Korean outbreak appears tightly connected with a funeral, a cult and subsequent hospital confinements.

Likewise, I understand the Italian waves centred on a hospital and an old person’s facility with some outward ripples. Tracing the sources is said to be finding no obvious leads.

The Japanese authorities’ use of the ship for quarantine failed. Since even Japanese infection control staff fell ill, it reinforces the idea that something was drastically wrong in their application in a tight proximity community, such as those on a ship.

Could the spread factor be tied into proximity, i.e. the degree of communal living and perhaps general health?

Current news reports provide insufficient information to draw informed understanding of the susceptibility of the general populace and the best ways to limit spread. Post event studies might fill in some of those gaps.

For the moment my life will go on as normally as it can.

[Richard]

Ed, a wee bit cynical but I understand and perhaps share some of that feeling. Sometimes it takes a major upset to correct wrongs and limitations.

[Ed P]

Returning to the flu versus covid-19 diagnosis problem. Without the CT scan and genetic evidence it is going to be difficult for anyone to make the call between the two without further testing.This is going to make things really difficult for the NHS once covid-19 becomes epidemic in the UK.

I hope (but with little confidence) that once Covid-19 is seen to be epidemic that the Government will publish some guidelines on when to call on the NHS 111 Covid-19 hotline, otherwise seasonal colds and flu will overwhelm the system.

Based on published stats it appears that unless the person has pre-existing coronary or respiratory ailments then no one under the age of 50 should call on the hotline unless they have flu symptoms plus acute breathing problems. For those over 50, two days fever plus coughing should be the signal to hit the NHS 111 hotline pdq as progression into breathing difficulties could bring the kiss of death.

[The VFM Addict]

Richard, you are of course correct; closer proximity and longer duration of exposure to an infected individual will result in far higher likelihood of becoming infected.   As I understand it how much of a “shedder” the infected person is also comes into play.  Because it seems some people shed more of the virus than do others.    I presume therefore that 5 minutes around a very heavy shedder is probably as bad as 15 around a low volume shedder.   All in all there are too many variables to really know what contact causes the most risk.   I would rather move the odds as far as possible in my direction.   Limit contact with others to only that which is totally unavoidable and even then wear all possible PPE short of a full hazmat suit.   YMMV.   Its an individual call we must all make personally.

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Ed, I agree that HMG will need to issue guidelines of when to call 111; and when to present to a medical establishment if 111 lines are overloaded, etc.    However, generally and especially in situations such as this, many (possibly the majority) won’t follow them and of human nature will desire at the very least some spoken reassurance and guidance from a human being.   I am absolutely certain therefore that 111 will be the first NHS sub-system to be totally overwhelmed.

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Breaking Points

I’ve been playing with some maths to try to determine the likely burden at which the  NHS would be overwhelmed.    The NHS has just south of 168K beds spread across approx. 1,250 hospitals.    The average period of necessary hospitalisation for Covid-19 patients when hospitalisation is required is 21 days.   This means that at any point during the UK epidemic, beds will be required not merely for patients who present on any given day but also beds will still be required for patients that presented during the previous 20 days.    Those figures are very frightening when fully considered.

They mean that hospitals on average currently have 135 beds capacity for all needs.   Even were every single bed suddenly allocated solely to Covid-19 patients then a new patient rate of just 7 Covid-19 patients presenting per hospital a day for 21 days would fill 147 beds (i.e. 7 x21) in each hospital.   But of course they only have 135 beds.    The breakpoint is therefore, just 7 new Covid-19 patients per hospital per day for 21 days, even if every single hospital bed the NHS currently has could be allocated to Covid-19.    Of course the breakpoint will be far, far sooner because the NHS could not allocate even half of its bed stock to Covid-19; and that assumes only 7 new Covid-19 patients a day.

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The Impact of Human Nature on Death Rates

It is true that more older folks with co-morbidities have died in China.   But we have no idea as to the standard of care they were receiving up to and at point of death.   If there was a shortage of medications and ventilators, which there must have been in China, who would medics have allocated those limited resources to?    If you were a medic with three patients before you all requiring a ventilator but only one was available who would you allocate it to?   Old pharts A & B who, Covid-19 aside, have in any event only a few years ahead of them due to their other conditions, or young mother C who, Covid-19 aside, would have many decades ahead of her?

The point I seek to make is that once resources are critically limited a degree of god-like selection has to be made by medics as to who is given the best chance of surviving.   The degree to which this selection may have reduced or inflated death rates in certain sub-groups is often impossible to dissect from the total figures.   In raw terms I find myself wondering if more old men died, yes, because they had co-existing morbidities but not directly due to such but indirectly because medics quite rationally allocated to them less of the very limited life saving resources that were available.

What would you do?   Only one ventilator available; two old pharts one with cancer the other in the early stages of terminal heart failure plus a younger individual who is healthy but for Covid-19.   The call is obvious, isn’t it?   Bottom line – What really killed the two old pharts? Was it sub-optimal care or truly intractable Covid-19?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

How long is the fuse on infection time bombs?     The fact that 82% plus do not suffer a serious infection surely means it is far longer than we imagine.    Infected ‘A’ infects a number of ‘Bs’.    The time bomb fuse therefore seems to be one incubation period.    However, it is quite possible that none of the few that A infected ever had the condition severely enough for it to be detected/confirmed.   Nonetheless those Bs infect others.    The time bomb fuse is now two incubation periods before the bomb noticeably explodes.   If the Bs only infected a couple of folk each it becomes still quite possible that none of those they infected were in the 18% that suffer a severe infection.   Hence the bomb continues undetected.    The time bomb fuse is now 3 incubation periods before the bomb explodes.

I think it will be several months before we can be really confident that any confirmed case did not commence an as yet invisible chain.     Especially when A might have infected B or B infected C not in person but instead by leaving presents around and which can in certain circumstances remain potent for 9 days meaning they might not have been delivered for that period; adding still further to the duration of the fuse.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Author]

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