[The VFM Addict]

Richard, normal flu and colds are communicable via the airborne route.    It is far from remote that SARS2CoV will also be.   Yes, the other routes are more likely to be the infection vector for any given individual shown to have Covid-19, just as you are more likely to die of a heart attack than a road accident; but does that mean, the law aside, no need to wear a seat belt?

This epidemic will blossom in part because folks think it can’t be Covid-19 I have.   Its just normal flu.   So they carry on as normal and for them it self resolves.   However they infect others.    Of the generations they spawn not all will be as lucky.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Richard, the quarantined cruise liner was well named as a floating petri dish as it gives a well constructed experimental chamber. The residents (experimental subjects) are heavily constrained and are allowed outside for a limited period in a limited space, with alcohol wash facilities provided.. All food/drink is apparently delivered to them as there are numerous complaints about having to pay for room service. Link

Despite this, new cases still arise outside the assumed 14 day period induction period. It looks like the common air-con system may be the infection pathway to their cabins as this is the only place where they are not wearing N95 masks. Airborne infection certainly appears to be one route for the virus to disseminate.

The Chinese say both respiratory and hand contact are involved in its transmission. They also say that the induction period for the disease is up to 24 days which is a bit worrying for the newly released Wuhan refugees! link

[Richard]

Please remind me, which learned medical journal used the term Petri dish and for which learned purpose other than rabble-rousing?

Yes, the Diamond Princess was an initial attempt to limit the spread of the illness, when very little was known about its nature.

As I understand it, their separation and quarantine expires on the 19th of February, i.e 5 days time. The original Hong Kong resident left the ship on the 25th January it is true, but he left a legacy for others to enjoy/suffer* (delete according to your judgement). Thus, the incubation clock was reset several times as people fell ill. Happily almost 300 souls are being, or have been treated and are not spreading their viral load worldwide. I understand that the evacuation of tested, virus free elderly passengers to shoreside Japanese isolation accommodation should have started by now. It is said that the food choices may discourage some from leaving shipboard isolation.

Some crew have fallen victim and been evacuated for treatment.

I had heard that the cruise line stated that all passengers will be fully refunded and given a complimentary ticket for a future cruise

Nothing about the disgraced one-time-doctor Andrew Wakefield and his impact on the infection rates for Measles, Mumps and Rubella, currently at a ten year high. Are you happy that mumps is a current epidemic in the UK?

I am now concerned that the Corvid-19 hoo-ha is taking centre stage and drowning other vital, medical news.

[Ed P]

Why should I post about Mumps is there a vaccine for Covid-19.? I’m afraid Richard your sniping is getting well off target.

btw The BBC were responsible for resurrecting a comment equating all cruise ships to floating Petri Dishes, and Prof Sanjaya Senanayake, an infectious diseases specialist at the Australian National University. says it is true.

[Richard]

Yes, there is a mumps vaccine, but there is also antisocial-media trying to block vaccination use. As a result, we are in a ten year high for mumps. As a result would enough even accept up a Covid-19 vaccine should one appear?

However, I also answered your snipping over Covid-19, cruises, payments, refunds, quarantine  and isolation. I think you should have noticed your claims were all at sea.

Clearly Petri dishes was used for BBC reporter effect. However, unless infection control is top-notch, Norovirus is a constant threat. Ships I was on years back had 24 hour cleaning and sanitising solutions everywhere.

All holidays travellers are bad for illness and dangerous for infection control as can currently observe.

[Ed P]

If you want to sound off in a new thread about anti-vacs then I’m 100% in support. Frankly I don’t understand an attitude that says vaccination is all some Big Pharma conspiracy. That said, Pharma takes a tiny bit of historical blame for using fairly harmful adjuvants such as mineral oil and mercury salts in the early 20th century. Although these have not been used for many decades they still give the anti-vaccsers a stick to beat with which to beat big Pharma. Added to this of course is the vegan/animal rights lobby who do not like the egg adjuvant in flu vaccines.

Back on topic this week’s New Scientist has some scary Covid-19 data for old pharts. Approximately 80% of the deaths in China are in the 60+ age bracket. As this age bracket accounts for roughly 17% of the Chinese population then my arithmetic says that an overall CFR of 1% equates to an age 60+ CFR of very roughly 50%. In turn it means the CFR for the younger age group is quite low, and nowhere near as scary.

Now we know why the Government is talking down covid-19, it nicely balances a lot of budget books.🙄

[Bob Williams]

Ed that is very much in line with my own thinking.

UK has an ageing population and the problem appears to be exponential.

There is a shortfall in funding for adult Social Care, specifically for those of us in retirement.

There are so many issues, medical and ageing, that funding support for the elderly has become a large drain upon government finances and consequently, the taxpayer. Government has been reducing funding for this to Councils for years.

A disease that appears to have a proportionately more significant effect upon the elderly, might be seen as “useful” in reducing this expenditure.

I do not however, imagine that the semi-conscious inhabitants of the House of Lords would support this point of view.

When the Thought Police arrive at your door, think -
I'm out.

[The VFM Addict]

Yep, Ed, 80% of deaths have been in the 60+ age group but for us chaps the news is even worse because 75% of that group have been male !!!    While a cull of the old might help the public finances I’m not sure that the Tories would desire it because it would vastly disproportionately kill more of their voters than Labour voters.

Moving to Covid-19 epidemic progressions directly the doubling rate seems consistently to be in the 4 to 6 day range.    So 5 days is par for the course.    This being so, two un-tracked cases in the UK today would not result in over 100 cases for 30 days and even many of that number may have such mild symptoms they never seek help.   However, even deaths that do occur do not occur the second one is infected.   Deaths lag a week or more behind.    So given that the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is 1% only by about day 37 would the first death in the UK be mathematically more likely than not to have occurred.

I think Richard expects that were Covid-19 a serious threat then we would be seeing lots of diagnosed cases and deaths here already.    That is simply not so.    Of course even by day 30 and with 100 confirmed cases but with as yet not a single death some folks will still say Covid-19 is less of a problem than normal flu or RTA’s.

Less though will hang on to that flawed logic by day 60 by which time there will be over 8,200 cases and hence by day 67 (approx) will have been about 82 deaths.    However, the doubling will continue such that by day 90 there will have been over 500,000 infected in the UK and hence by about day 97 over 5,000 deaths.   I don’t see anyone leaving their heads in the sand at that point; unless literally because they are of the mind set that such is the best available face mask.    Of course just 10 days after that (i.e. two further doublings) we are up to over 2 million infected and a week after that there will have been so far over 20,000 deaths.   That will be a wake-up call nobody will have been able to ignore.

The UK epidemic, given the R0 of 2.6 (approx) which SAR2Cov has, will mean it will only finally run out of steam when there are too few susceptible patients for it to attack due to most having been infected and survived hence having developed immunity.    This would occur once around 60% to 65% of the UK population had been infected.   Hitting that number will take around 5 months and the 1% of that number (i.e. the number of souls that will have perished) will be well over 400,000.     Certainly a significant cull of the House of Lords will have occurred within such

Many medical experts you hear on the airways or read in other MSM seem at first glance to be quite delusional appearing to believe we can maintain Fortress UK against this threat and identify/contain all infected individuals the second they arrive in the UK such as to thwart any real outbreak.    That’s nuts and I can’t see that they truly believe such.    Many infected from around the world will not even be clearly infected on entry, just as the London woman was not.   Not all of the infected will even seek help as quickly as she did.    Coming from China she had cause to suspect her ills were Covid-19 but would someone from France, Spain or Germany automatically assume they had Covid-19?    Moreover once it gets into the illegal immigrant populations in Europe things become even worse.    I can’t see them running rapidly to medics, can you.    It is hence simply inevitable, as any rational person must surely see, that we will suffer an epidemic because it is certain to breach our perimeter often initially unseen.

You have hit the nail on the head, Ed, many times.   Currently too many in the Government and frankly also in the medical profession are more frightened of carrying the can for having started a panic to ever sufficiently inform the public such that they will adequately prepare.    Right now people and businesses should all be preparing highly detailed plans to reduce person to person contact the very second the first un-trackable and hence uncontained outbreak gives even the slightest glimpse of itself.    Waiting until it occurs before planning will be too late.   And with no plans already in place the panic at that point will be ten times worse.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

There was one other scary bit of data (but I have unfortunately lost the link). IIRC this stated that the German and Japanese between them have tested for or five hundred people that they evacuated from China. Not many reacted positive to a covid-19 test, but the scary bit was that half of the positive results were completely without symptoms and did not even feel ill. (bit like our own ‘super-spreader’.

To be fair to PHE they have now set out their main objectives one of which is to delay the onset of the storm in the hope that someone can quickly develop a vaccine or an antibody jab. However, I can see them having to quickly move to the sorts of measures that ICL came up with in the ‘Contagion’ documentary in the near future. (If you have not seen it, I thoroughly recommend it.). The Chinese have pretty much copied that play book, but doing that in our society is going to require that our Government exhibits an unprecedented amount of intestinal fortitude. They might just do that, given the demography of the MPs, if someone points out a 50% death-rate looms for a third of them.

 

[The VFM Addict]

That was exactly the point I made above – Stealth Outbreaks.   The asymptomatic infected each starting cascades which will only be picked up on once someone in a cascade (and it could be more than one generation before it happens) is ill enough to seek help.

This makes this virus very dangerous.  Because identification before there is significant duplication will quite often be unlikely.   Heaven knows now we don’t just need to check incomers from the Far East.   Infected individuals can now come from France, Spain, Germany, Finland, the USA, Egypt, etc.   Anyone who thinks that there are not already or will not soon be multiple cascades in the UK has surely lost the plot.   China has seeded the world with this one and it is beginning to proliferate exponentially just like bindweed in every direction.

I would direct Richard to the date of opening post in this thread – 23 January.   Right then there were only 239 cases and I said I felt it would get a lot worse.    Of course to Richard I am, as he titled me, “Paranoid VFM”.    But here we are three weeks or so later with over 70K cases spread across 30 countries.   Clearly there is an embryonic pandemic here getting stronger by the day and with no chance it can be contained because many spreaders will be invisible.

We are a group here that is highly vulnerable to this nasty little thing due to our age, gender and/or pre-existing co-morbidities.    All I have been trying to do is make sure fellow Forumites recognise that this is for real and start preparing to give themselves and those close to them the best chance of surviving until a vaccine or effective treatment is found.   Waiting until the mass panic begins will make preparations far harder if not impossible.    Those of us here who are retired can with a little thought and preparation ensure we have all we need such that we will only need to leave home once or at most twice a week and if we source good PPE (masks, goggles, gloves, etc.) and adopt best practices when using them and when returning home we can ensure that such trips are relatively low risk.    True, risk cannot be totally eliminated but this girl’s story regarding Ebola, even without proper PPE, is surely inspiring.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

BTW this is a terrific one-stop resource for information about numbers, latest assessments re incubation periods, age of victims, deaths data, etc.

The Updates towards the bottom of the page also keep one up to date.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

In the West the main problem with Covid-19 is that for the most part it is either benign or hidden. I’m certain the powers that be are receiving excellent advice from LSE and the WHO on the best measures to contain the virus. Unfortunately the most effective ones are draconian and politically unacceptable until death rates start to become more perceptible. If we thought that Wuhan had political problems in closing off the city, we have the same with brass knobs on, as the politicians are damned if they take necessary action too early (before it is palatable to the populace) and thrice damned if they take action too late.

Mushroom Matt has made his future job much harder and lined himself up for a huge pratt fall by underplaying the impacts of covid-19. Teflon Bojo will certainly heap any problems/deaths on his head, and take all the credit for any successes!

[The VFM Addict]

Pretty much cast iron proof today that the BBC are now suppressing bad Covid-19 news.     There were almost 70 new cases on the Diamond Princess over night but not a mention of it on the BBC news website.   That still reports 218 cases when the current count is well over 280.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The Duke]

I’ve been using this site to follow the stats and info

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Ed P]

I agree that it looks like the Government has been manipulating the scale of the problem for  the popular media. However, it would not surprise me to see massive increases in cases/deaths being stored up to enable a propaganda release of large-scale problems that in turn enables the introduction of necessary Chinese-style draconian measures.

[The VFM Addict]

We are almost certainly over two months behind Wuhan/China in our exponential curve, although with infected feeds likely to flow in from numerous states we might reach the same levels as China has reached a little more quickly.    That said I can’t see numbers even if manipulated by HMG being of sufficient volume to allow the introduction of draconian measures for at least a month.    So we all have time to prepare before panic buying etc gets into full flow; although FFP2 and FFP3 masks are increasing getting harder to source and more expensive.    All outlets I know of are reporting very high demand already.

Tests have shown that in practice filtration by valved, FFP2 and FFP3 masks varies little even though FFP3 is meant to be better.    Selco, the (mainly) trade builders supplier appear to have stocks while the mainly domestic B&Q seem to be running low very rapidly.   At least that’s the state of play in both my local stores.    If one wants to go full blown half face dual cartridge masks rated P2 (good enough) will cost about £25 with extras cartridge pairs about £14.    If I had to keep on working and go out most days during this I’d go for those delivering the filtration needed but with less breathing resistance than with basic valved, FFP2 or FFP3 masks; so more comfortable for long term use.   However, to my mind no point using a mask if one leaves one’s eyes open to invasion so goggles I personally believe are a must or if preferred a full visor.   For the paranoid, and I am cautious but not paranoid, disposable coveralls are reasonably priced at Selco.   But as they breath might not offer much more protection that a hoodie that is hot washed after each use. Those suits are mainly designed to protect from the likes of asbestos which are far, far larger particles than we are talking about here.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Oh as regards draconian measures I think the big difference between London, the likely site of the first major and I stress major outbreak, and Wuhan is that London relies for its life blood on the main arteries that are its underground lines.    Draconian measures would be pointless if that hotbed of infection remained in action sharing infections inwards in the mornings and distributing them to the suburbs and south east in the evenings.    So in essence any draconian measures would have to close the Underground to work but closing it would hence effectively close London.     There are not many countries that are as reliant as we are on one single city.   London is the essential heart of our financial services reliant economy.    Shut it then to all intents and purposes you totally shut down the economy.   So HMG would be in a real fix.   Damned if it did, damned if it didn’t.    Not sure I can see an easy way out.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Wuhan has a fairly modern Metro, however iirc it is of the modern US Westinghouse style which separates track and stations by a glass screen with sliding doors.which would tend to reduce the amount of air being pumped into stations from elsewhere. So I agree, London has a better virus distribution system.

Incidentally the Beeb quietly updated the Diamond Princess numbers on the 6pm news. However I still think that information releases are being managed so as not to frighten the masses.

Maybe I’m wrong but since TBLiar I have seen no reason to have faith in our politicians, especially with potentially difficult news releases. The election of a PM who even outdoes the great Blair dissembler, gives me even less basis for trust. Add in control freak Cummings and it becomes hard not to question everything in our media. (Private Eye excepted!)

[The VFM Addict]

Another 70 cases on the Diamond Princess overnight !!!   But again the BBC News Website still not even mentioning the day before’s 67 let alone this new 70.    HMG pressure ???

Action Required

The Sunday Telegraph (“ST”) reports that the NHS’s Covid-19 daily testing capacity is already heading towards full stretch.    The NHS can conduct 1,000 tests a day and on Thursday alone tested 763.    It seems plans are to not really bother to test once there are over 100 cases in the UK with no clear link to a known source.

The ST also reports that self-isolation will be the dicta/demand from HMG after that 100 case limit is breached.   So folks – Make sure you have at the very least a couple of weeks of supplies.    Sainsbury’s have own brand good old powered milk at very low prices and I’d grab plenty if I were you before it starts going into v.short supply; so at least your good old cuppa will be protected. Now is the time to act.   I expect panic buying to slowly begin at all venues near you from this weekend; and that will only exponentially accelerate over the coming weeks.    Pasta, Noodles and good old powdered mashed potatoes are not that expensive and are well worth having.   Tesco’s powdered mash is very inexpensive.  But you’ll need milk to make it so don’t forget the powdered milk.

Remember that as this develops everything may go into short supply because many supply chain workers will have self-isolated – Even fuel tanker drivers.   So don’t forget to try to keep the tanks in your vehicles at least half full if there’s any chance you will or may need to travel.  Think all your preparations through carefully from today and start actioning then pdq.    Surely it is starting to dawn on all that this is not a drill !!!

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

You can’t beat a bit of black humour now and then.   A round of applause to the Sunday Times for this banner headline.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Author]

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