[Ed P]

On the BBC South East news tonight they featured covid-19  (crap name), Most of those interviewed complained at the drip-feed of official information and local health officials revealed that they had been gagged and prevented from releasing statements or advice by Matt Hancock’s Dept of Health. (Mushroom Matt).

What was drip fed this evening was that the superspreader did not feel at all unwell until his flight landed at Gatwick on 28th January. This means of the eleven or so people he infected that seven or eight had occurred in the week before he felt any symptoms.

It is going to be very difficult to contain this virus.

[Richard]

I have no objection to carrying a stock of Paracetamol, or any other medication of choice, (I took my wheel barrow to the pharmacy today). My quoting of the news report alluding to self treatment medications in China was not an exhaustive listing but an indication of what was quoted and of course it is limited by what China previously sold as over the country medicines, that I do not know. However, the objective was stated as being to make a clearer count of those suffering by apparently forcing them into medical centres. That is a risky strategy, how many will just take to their beds at home and go without any treatment? How many will simply clutter up the hospitals or medical centres because they had a routine or random headache.

I suggest that Bob’s reckoning is correct. China’s mega cities are not only have high concentrations of people, but they are also often crammed into high rises with large number of residents. Note I am not suggesting there are too many people per dwelling, I have no reason to think that let alone suggest such a problem. The rise of an educated class in China has been marked and I doubt that overcrowding would fly well with any of them. Their  anything-goes-markets and bizarre beliefs about of animal-parts appear an anomaly.

VFM, if your statistics are the state of play in China, at least 82% of their population should be fine with self medication. It is the percentages outside of China that are of greater concern to those not in China. For the moment in a highly dynamic situation, death rates and serious illness appear far lower away from China. This could be due to a self selected population of fit, generally healthy dynamic people being the first to make contact. However, this is treading close to pure speculation, it is not evidence based so needs a discount.

I understand the concerns about seriously ill people taking up huge amounts of resources compared with their fitter cohort, I suspect that some of them are already absorbing considerable medical effort already. I find it impossible to believe that a bug of any sort has hatched a battle plan based on the idea of sinking medical services by overloading them. Yes, it could be that becomes a side effect, yes that could mean a huge increase in death duties boosting the treasury and yes, medical demands might, just might be briskly reduced at some future date due to a reduction in the not quite well. It might even help to persuade some to adopt a more considered approach to their life before it is too late.

In many ways I have some skin in the game. I’m in my mid seventies with a catalogue of issues, most though not all are ‘mechanical’ rather than purely ‘medical’. We have  a few limited trips scheduled, but are already almost self quarantined. Almost 100% of our shopping is done on line, on days like today we are very pleased about that.

What  really terrible days we are having, hibernation has a lot to offer.

[Richard]

Ed, are you complaining that Covid-19 meets the TOR of the WHO or that it was not your choice. I fully understand their rational.

No doubt the antisocial network brigade are searching for reasons against as I write.

[Ed P]

Richard, the average Chinese citizen would eschew going to a pharmacy, but instead go to their local herbalist.

I’d hesitate to say what they would get, but I’d guess at herbs like willow bark (aspirin). Many of their herbs are unknown in the West but some such as their anti-malarial remedies were much more effective than those obtainable from big Pharma (The artemesin tea anti-malarial for example).

Whenever my secretary came down with a cold she would drink a ‘tea’ made from ingredients supplied by the local herbalist. She had no idea what she was drinking but she said that it worked for her. Incidentally the herbalist would act a bit like a doctor in questioning and examining her before supplying anything. Sometimes however it would be pure voodoo medicine such as ‘cupping therapy’ for tendon pain.

btw I dislike covid-19 as a name as it does not roll off the tongue in the same way as MERS or SARS

[The VFM Addict]

It is not going to be very difficult to contain this virus it is going to be impossible.   But given the twitter news feeds from China I can understand why our Government, indeed any government would hesitate to tell our populous that it is coming here.    It would be almost as likely to cause panic as would saying Russia had launched ICBMs at us and that they were incoming.    Few politicians would have such balls and even Churchill didn’t tell the population the full truth post Dunkirk and how had we not very marginally had air superiority over our own skies the Third Reich could have waltzed across the channel meeting little resistance other than at guerrilla levels.

The big difference is while Churchill kept the facts from the populous he also made sure the populous was told how to prepare in a way that did not cause panic.  This government has not done such and in the main the media neither have to any real extent; at least not square and centre, only in tucked away places.

Right now, right away they (i.e. the Government and the MSM) should be pushing preparedness; even if they temper it with adding that it is just to be on the safe side and probably will not be needed.   Do that and there will not be last minute panic when the reality arrives.   It is rather like training.   Knowing what to do when the bovine excrement actually hits the rotary cooling device is far, far better that being hit by the excrement out of the blue while having no cleaning products ready to hand or having no idea how to use them.

I’ve spoken to several folk today upon whom it is dawning what is about to happen.   These are folks I advised a week or more ago to buy masks, etc., but are now saying that can’t find any in the shops.    To an extent the media are guilty of causing this apathy.   They overplayed the threat that SARS and MERS were.   So folks assumed this too would be something that would fizzle out.   Even a pharmacist I know well was still apathetic re Covid-19 just 5 days ago but is today in OMG mode as she can at last see the lights of this juggernaut coming at us.   Tell you one thing outside of a hospital the local Pharmacy will be the worst environment to work in when this hits.    Talk about high volume exposure as folks, many already infected, come looking for masks and self-meds.

I’ve certainly been banging the preparedness drum; I never did with SARS or MERS.   But this time the writing was on the wall in sufficiently large letters early enough to allow for preparation.   I will be in a “I told you so” position, which not only will I never voice but which I will hate to the nth degree being in.   I’ll just get angry with myself for not having found a way to convince them to prepare.   I felt like that today speaking with two folk that I truly doubt will survive given both their general medical status and failure to prepare in any way at all.   I felt like I was talking to the soon to be dead and it was emotionally traumatic once I was out of their company.   I can see what’s coming.  It is no hard to do and for me therefore the pain of it is already here.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Well at least the WHO Chief has at last stopped pulling his punches.   He warns COVID-19, is ‘public enemy number 1’ and more powerful than terrorism attack.    That is something the public can relate to.

Share the link because the advice sections down the righthand side of the page are all valuable.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Two Names which in reality mean much the same !

I suspect there may be some confusion regarding the names used over the next few weeks.    I was certainly confused reading various articles this evening.    I’ve just learned that the virus has actually been given the name SARSCov2 and its the disease which it causes that has been named Covid-19.    The relationship it seems is exactly the same as that of HIV (the virus) to the disease  it causes which is AIDS.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Just reviewed all newspaper front pages (for Thursday).   Yet again most don’t even mention Covid-19.     Pretty much universal head in the sand down-playing as if what is about to occur is not the most important news story around – Which it is !!!     HS2 far bigger news than SARSCov2 – yeah right @&#$ !!!    The Daily Mail excels itself with a fpage that is dedicated to holding that our ageing population is a health crisis.   Not a mention of Covid-19 as a health crisis.   Oh well certainly Covid-19 will soon mitigate the threat to the NHS caused by our ageing population because we are surely on the brink of the now inevitable greatest cull ever seen and which will be more comprehensive than it should be due the lack of preparedness education.  Or is that the idea!

The Times majors about No 10 being fearful that dangerous criminals will be out in days forgetting it seems that a major criminal – Covid-19 – which the WHO says is more dangerous than the worst of terrorists attacks, will be with us just as soon.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Last night on BBC4 they screened a program made in 2018 in which a pandemic hit the UK (starting in Hastlemere and not a million miles from Hove). This was accurately simulated using a phone app given out in 2018 to ~30000 people of all ages and backgrounds spread over the UK.

The results of the experiment were fed to the Imperial College London team, the same ones who issued the recent Covid estimate. Given the present situation any intelligent person watching the program Contagion will have their pants severely soiled.

Unfortunately I did not jot down the assumptions the ICL team used but it appeared that they could easily adjust them. IIRC they used an R0 of 1.8 (down a bit from the Wuhan 2.2) and a similar CFR (much higher than their latest estimate of 1%). This simulation resulted in about 900000 deaths over a three month period starting in the South East and ending in Scotland.  I guess on the recent ICL numbers that equates to around half a million deaths in the UK.

They did however come out with some recommendations to cut down on the numbers of Social SuperSpreaders namely closing places of gathering, e.g. pubs, coffee shops, schools. Also other measures such as work from home etc. They could also identify those people who should be immunised (read wear nbc suits or similar) e.g. shop keepers, pub landlords etc.

Unfortunately they did not simulate mask wearing by everyone, but I think they should be easily able to put that into their program.

The Mushroom Man – Matt Hancock has nowhere to hide, and no excuses can be made.

[The VFM Addict]

Should have added that the smiling face of the Super-Spreader adorns many front pages.   That is the most disgusting factor of all.    Because inevitably the uninformed folks will see him smiling and fully recovered and think – Well if even he survived it obviously can’t be that bad.    To me it looks like the majority of the UK population due to a total lack of forethought by the media is being set up for a truly brutal sucker punch

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Now now don’t chastise Measly Matt, Ed, he has at least said that this is going to get worse before it gets better.    So he is telling the truth.    Although its like having said in the mid 1930’s that the coming problems Hitler would cause would get worse before they got better.    That statement by Measly Matt might one day be viewed as akin to peace in our time or at the very least a deadly Micheal Fish moment.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

More bad news from the Diamond Princes !!! 

Fuller Story here.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

You should send the full story to Mushroom Matt:

“One reason why a panic has not occurred among passengers is the captain’s leadership. Regular announcements of information,”

[Ed P]

IF the timeline shown by the Beeb is accurate we should be extremely worried. The induction time between being infected and being able to infect others is between 1 and 4 days, and the time to display any symptoms of illness is up to a week after being infected, and being confirmed as a covid victim takes up to a week after contacting health officials with an infection rationale.

As said before we are being drip fed info by Mushroom Matt, and this is a BIG mistake.

They are apparently tracing (note present tense) the patients treated by the doctors. Given they know exactly who they are that comment should have been in the past tense, but obviously Mushroom Matt is interfering again. Given my interpretation of the infection timelines, early release of information is vital even at the risk of inaccuracy.

Still maybe Mushroom Matt has a cunning secret plan to cut down future Health and Pension costs as well as freeing up housing in the South and all within six months! 👿

[Richard]

There are 12 patients who were seen by the doctors according to the report I read. How naughty of them not to all stand still and wait for someone to find them, rather than going ahead and leading their lives. Even in China’s Police state, tracing contacts still takes time.

Frankly, I find the scaremongering less than helpful. Perhaps you would like to club together and send Matt a nice magnifying glass, and expect him to rush round like Inspector Jacques Clouseau? Somehow I doubt that he would fall for that silliness. Perhaps a touch of I have a rhetoric that I need to use drives the convention of silly names.

If you ever worked for any large organisation you’d know that, only the organisation’s mouth pieces speak out on matters affecting such as policy, public safety and similar matters.

The recent storms have killed more in the UK than the Covid-19 bug. More people are currently flooded out of their homes long term, than are in temporary isolation. You are more likely to die in an accident in the home than on the road and far less likely to die from Covid-19. Watch out for normal ‘flu, the ‘flu season is currently in full swing, though this year will likely only see it cause a few thousand deaths.

Just for good measure another storm is incoming, so more deaths and flooding to come.

This ends the good news.

[The VFM Addict]

Richard wrote:

………….. You are more likely to die in an accident in the home than on the road and far less likely to die from Covid-19. ………………

This month probably so.  Next month possibly so.   April, May, June, July………not a chance in hell.   The WHO say that 60-80% of the world’s population will be infected.    Imperial College London say at least 1% of those will die.   That’s at least 400,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 even before we include those who die due to the NHS not being able  to care as well for all over illnesses due to overload.

Flu in it worst years kills no more than 10,000.    Total Avoidable Deaths from all accidental causes and suicide have not passed 160,000 in England and Wales during any year this century and are usually half that.   So let’s just tell it like it is.    It is going to be hell of a kind that none of  of us here have ever experienced; unless we lived through WW2.    Those are the facts, Richard, from wholly reputable sources.   But if you think that stating them is scaremongering then that’s your prerogative; and frankly I kind of wish I too could put of facing up to this guaranteed catastrophe for a little longer but I can’t.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Ed P]

Richard you obviously live in an area where an unknown person can wander in as they feel fit and be seen by a doctor. In the South East you have to book an appointment a week in advance with your NHS doctor and provide full NHS contact details (including mobile phone) all of which is checked in advance. Those remarks were of course pure sarcasm, and there is no need to respond to them.

The official statement was obvious bull crap put out by Mushroom Matt. They know exactly who the patients are and they have contacted them days ago. The problem is that Mushroom Matt does not know whether he should now be chasing THEIR 8+ contacts and in turn the 50 contacts they generated etc until he gets the test results in a day or two from now.(figures based roughly on the average per person contacts in the Contagion programme)

This is all pure Government ‘need to know’ in order to stop panic rather than to solve the problem. They should instead have been honest with the population and just asked contacted people to go into voluntary quarantine until the test results are out and told everyone that is what they are doing.

[The VFM Addict]

As I said before, Ed, SARS and MERS, which in the end amounted to nothing for the UK, have left folks thinking this will be no different.    The rapid recovery of the Super Spreader only reinforces that misconception.

I’m not sure therefore that everyone would have disrupted their lives by 14 days self-quarantine. And truly, would that work because their families would probably still go out taking gifts from the ‘contact’ with them.    I think the Government would have had to go in very heavy on this one for it to ever work – forced Chinese Style.    But they are too weak and hesitant to ever do that.   So, just as it often is in the UK, it will be a case of the three D’s.    Dither, dither, disaster.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

FFS !!!    The Evening Standard website reports –

The Department for Education has written to schools ahead of the half-term break signposting them to public health advice.

The letter says: “You should not be unduly worried about the possibility of your children catching the coronavirus.

“There is no reason why your children should not continue to attend their early years, school or further education setting as normal.”

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Now I’m beginning to think the Government are not only dithering they truly may be plain stupid.   Yet another Michael Fish moment but with far greater consequences.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[Richard]

I can see you are badly worried, however nothing I have read from the WHO or anyone else, in the past half hour justifies even 1/100th of the panic you appear to feel. The WHO are putting out recommendations which the UK government appears to reproduce almost word for word. A University of East Anglia professor suggested that pathways rife with ‘could’ and ‘maybe’ would increase risks. However, they rated the reality far lower, with projected deaths of 0.02%. Tough, if you are one of the 0.02% but there are other risks rated higher. I know that we do have a proportion of loonies and mischief-makers who, might well catch something and wish to pass it on. There have been cases of idiots doing that with AIDS.

The idea that we should all become hermits, shut schools after half-term and shun all contacts is not supported anywhere. Rather, avoiding hugging and kissing, suspending handshaking and self isolation for anyone with doubtful symptoms, is promoted and agreed by the majority of WHO members.

I see that to date nearly 2,000 focused UK tests, have produced 8 hits to date. Already, once confirmed positive cases are being prepared for discharge. There is simply no reason for any other action.

The major risk is ill-judged travellers from suspect areas. This may trigger xenophobia outbreaks such as those already being seen in schools against anyone of Asian appearance.

So, my tin-foil helmet, biocide spray and ultraviolet sanitiser will remain unworried and not called into existence. For me, there is simply no reason to worry beyond careful attention to personal hygiene and attention to detail.

[Author]

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