@thevfmaddict
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I’m not sure that issuing masks and gels will be enough. It is now known that this virus hangs around in the air after an infected person sneezes or coughs such that you can be infected even after that spreader has left. Eyes are as vulnerable as the mouth and nose. Hence there is a need for goggles also. Perhaps this is why it still exploded in China even after masks were being used and hand hygiene practiced. Very few civilians wore goggles. Once it gets full blown here my outside wear will be hoodie, goggles and FFP3 mask. With one set rotating with another and sanitization between uses. Currently I’m just using a standard disposable non-valved mask of which I have 100 and I may still have a local retail source for more in 50 batches; although I’m not sure how long that will last despite them buying-in 1,000’s. They might already have run out as I’ve not spoke with them for a couple of days.
Returning to the Diamond Princess ship again we must remember lag-time between infection and symptoms; during which the evidence inclines to the conclusion that one is still contagious. That incubation period possibly varies up to 42 days it now seems. This might possibly be due to some folk’s immune systems fighting but slowing losing a holding action. The problem is that if one waits for symptoms to show before testing one can never catch-up because by then others have been infected and are already starting their incubation periods. And so it goes on.
What particularly concerns me is that unlike most of the coronavirus family it seems this one is not slowed by high temperatures and humidity. So the end of ‘the flu season’ will not give us a respite. In Hong Kong of 19 who attended a BBQ party 9 were subsequently found to be infected (47% WOW). This virus is damned infectious.
The MRC Unit at Imperial College London have completed modelling and calculate the likely CFR (death rate per infection) to be 1%. Note – That is per infection and not only 1% of those who are hospitalised. That’s will be around 670,000 deaths in the UK. To put that into perspective flu usually kills 600 a year in the UK on average and never more than 10,000 even in the worst of years in the modern era; and we know that even such, by comparison small numbers are enough to overwhelm our NHS. I do not think Imperial College looked at anything more than those killed specifically by the virus. But I would imagine many will additionally die of other causes simply because the NHS is to overloaded to treat those as well as normally.
Crazy as it is there is some logic in saying that the Sussex Super-Spreader won the Survival Lottery Jackpot. He has recovered and now has immunity. Perhaps it is better to get this virus early while you’ll still get intensive care from the NHS if you need it and before the ITU’s are mega swamped with 3 mile queues outside every A&E in the land.
Some experts now suggest that this virus cannot be stopped until the world has a vaccine or an anti-viral with >60% effectiveness. But the chances are that by the time they are available almost everyone will have had it and have either died of have survived it and have personal immunity anyway due to such.
The bad news for us Forumites, given that most of us are lads and are of the older generations, is that so far world-wide it seems 80% of those who do die are over 60 years old and 75% of that vulnerable subset are male.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
What the British government will do if coronavirus spreads. Its worth a read.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Just to really brighten our day the Chinese Government has admitted, well effectively admitted to being utter C#*ts. The squeamish should turn away now.
The Shanghai government just announced some terrible news – The virus IS airborne. It can be spread through the air even if the infected person isn’t present. Previously, many doctors advice was to maintain a 1-2m distance and not wear a mask. This advice is now useless!
Virus-containing droplets such as spray from a sneeze can remain airborne & stably suspended in air in effectively aerosol form like an air freshener. So walk where an infected person previously walked (assuming it has not rained) and collect your free prize.
That huge street spraying in China now makes total sense, doesn’t it ! Which means it is highly likely they have known this for some time but kept it quiet. Great, ‘king great!
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Richard, bacterial infections of the sinuses, middle ear and vagina are more common in those who are magnesium deficient. I’ll bet your serum Mg+ has never been checked; that none of the tablets you are taking are Mg and that a blood test will find you either magnesium deficient or at the very bottom of the normal range for serum Mg. The normal range is set far too low and folks at the bottom of it are deficient. Get your medics to ‘suck it and see’ it might educate them.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Not a bad thing about losing one’s sense of smell, Ed, because a lot of people are now with good cause s?#ting themselves.
News re 2019-nCoV is really moving fast and is often astounding.
China are now counting those with positive tests but no symptoms as unconfirmed cases. Can you believe that? No wonder the rate of growth in confirmed cases has slowed the last two days.
Meanwhile Hong Kong has acknowledged that tracking symptom-less carriers is vital to getting control of this pandemic which I suspect all in Europe agree with given the Brit “Super-Carrier”.
I think as far as the UK is concerned the phoney war is over or put differently the shout as of today is resoundedly – INCOMING !!! Its time to duck and take cover.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Ed, re your post if its not already rife in London now I’d be surprised as its certain to having ‘commuted’ in from Sussex Monday to Friday.
Zinc
I agree as regards the need to keep one’s zinc levels up. There’s no voodoo science about it. It is good science.
Zinc is actually a strange one in that it doesn’t increase one’s immune response but rather tempers it such that it doesn’t do more harm than good by over reacting. Very often it is the over reaction of the immune system and the inflammation that such causes that does the damage. In most cases of pneumonia for example it’s the pulmonary inflammation that causes the inability of the lungs to effectively oxygenate one’s blood. Zinc can modulate this over reaction and supplementation should help if one is to any degree deficient. Its potential significance in respect of the current threat is obvious. This is worth a read if you are really interested.
The over 60’s are more likely to be Zinc deficient than the young. So supplementation cannot hurt and might genuinely be of life saving benefit for some infected by 2019-nCoV because it is the pulmonary inflammation that does the main damage. One rider though – If you supplement just be careful not to take more than 25mg a day because such excessive supplementation can itself cause anaemia.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
My use of the word ‘ominous’, Richard, was due to the random nature of the power. The power is not that only those ‘diagnosed’ may be detained it requires only that it be suspected that an individual might pose a risk.
In the early days of the forthcoming spread I have no doubts that the decisions as to who poses a risk will be taken reasonably by those qualified to undertake a rational assessment of probability. However, very rapidly indeed such capacity for reasoned decisions will be totally overwhelmed. Then if Mr Plod or other empowered minor official sees you have a cough or scan as having a high temperature you will be carted off to be banged up in over crowded quarantine centres that are even higher risk hot beds of infection than is the Diamond Princess at present. So even if all you had was merely a bad cold or normal flu and you only popped out for the first time in a week to get food supplies or medicines, which you could not avoid doing, you’ll find yourself fast-tracked to acquiring 2019-nCoV. This is the ominous reality of these powers in circumstances as we will face. Call them a shoot first ask questions later policy if you wish.
Rule 1 within a week or two will be don’t go out if you have a temperature. But some folks, and my other half is within that group, always have a temperature a degree or so above the norm due to her mix of chronic conditions even in the absence of any infection. Try explaining that to Mr Plod and him having enough medical knowledge to understand and believe you.
So I agree, Richard, the powers are not themselves ominous but inevitably the practical consequences of them are damn ominous. The scenes you can see on the web occurring in China with folks being dragged off the streets with medical assessments being made by unqualified Police or minor officials (re-purposed Traffic Wardens for example) will soon be replicated here.
Ed, I think also made that point in his last post and far more concisely and humorously than I can.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
While I was writing the above post the Government hit the sirens. Note ominous powers of compulsory isolation are being put in place. People can be forcibly quarantined or sent into isolation and will not be free to leave.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I have decided to begin active coronavirus precautions from today.
What has influenced my decision is increasing evidence that the virus is far more contagious than previously thought.
The number of suspected cases on the Diamond Princess has doubled in the last 24 hours – now at 130. This has occurred despite the majority being confined to cabins and all standard precautions being taken. The Japanese are now considering testing all 3,700 passengers and crew. I will be surprised if such does not find the number of infections to far exceed 300. Remember – The 1918/19 Spanish Flu infected a third of the world’s populations and had a R0 (onward infection rate) equal to or less than this coronavirus.
The guy who infected the Brits in the French Ski Chalet did not have symptoms until after he was out of contact with them. So it is now clear that infected individuals are contagious even before symptoms present. Any infected individual that has entered the UK is therefore likely to have infected large numbers of others before being detected and who in turn will…………. It is far from remote that infected numbers in the UK are already in the thousands but who are not yet suffering symptoms are therefore undetected but infecting others. For information – Studies have shown that coronaviruses can survive, especially in cool conditions, up to 9 days on inanimate items. So how could spread be leveraged by items such as supermarket trolleys or baskets alone or escalator handrails?
Death rates among diagnosed patients on the current data are likely to be in excess of 4%. Comparing current numbers of deaths to current identified cases is misleading due to the lag-time from diagnosis to death if it eventually occurs. Allowing for the lag we must look at deaths so far against the number that were proven to be infected about 7 days ago. Do that with today’s death total against detected cases a week ago and we are well above 4% death rate among diagnosed patients who present with significant symptoms. Working the figures still further we find that 39K cases have not yet reached any outcome (where outcome is death or recovery) so even 4% is likely to be an underestimate. A similar situation occurred with SARS – the death rate initially being declared to be around half that of which it turned out to be because lag time was not accommodated for in initial calculations. Are such initial underestimations wilful by the authorities for fear of precipitating panic?
Considering all of the above we almost certainly have a situation where we are facing a virus every bit as lethal as SARS (possibly even more so) but which is far, far more contagious. This is consistent with China’s degree of reaction. It is probably to some significant degree already in the UK but this reality is being played down somewhat. Note – That is not a conspiracy theory rather an understandable desire on the part of the authorities to give the NHS time to fully prepare before the overwhelming rush of panic begins in earnest.
Short of buying a full NBC suit….lol….I’m as prepared as anyone can be. It is, as I see it, surely time to actively seek to mitigate as far as is possible most risks. Wait longer and it is now far from remote that one will be infected before actively trying not to be.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I guess, Bob, that in the current circumstances it will always be debatable where the response is reasonable and where it is over the top irrational panic.
WW2
My maternal grandfather was on searchlight duty not long after Dunkirk. There was great fear of an assault by German Parachutists or sabotage by 5th columnists. On perimeter patrol one night down by the bushes that bordered the searchlight site in Kent he heard a sound. He issued a friend or foe challenge. No response. He reissued the challenge. Still no response and he put one up the spout as loudly as he could such that whoever it was would hear his bolt being worked. A slight rustling followed which sounded to him like someone crawling after having heard the bolt. He challenged one more time making clear that he would fire if there was no response. There was no response but instead now an even louder sound consistent with a person or two now moving fast through the bushes towards him. He fired towards the sound. This was met by a screech that sounded like a cow crying out after taking a hit. It was not a cow. It was in fact the adjoining farm’s prize bull which had taken what became a fatal hit. Question – Did my grandfather panic or act entirely rationally given circumstances in which it was wholly conceivable that there had been a genuine threat? The farmer kicked up one hell of a storm but my grandfather’s CO in the main stood by him; although to appease the farmer he did put my grandfather on minimal token jankers. He also told my grandfather that was the only reason for the jankers and that had he himself been in such a situation he would have fired even sooner. Moreover he told my grandfather that if my grandfather was ever in such a position again he would expect him also to fire sooner, saying “Two challenges are enough, laddie, we are at war”.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
That’s the problem in a nutshell, Ed. Any cold or flu like symptoms and people will wonder, “Could it be………….”. So I suspect that an extra burden on the NHS is already developing via 111. I am also starting to think that we must assume that n-CoV is already in the UK by one route or another and that its probably only the lag time of the incubation period before that becomes totally clear. The pattern seen in the the quarantined ships is probably playing out already somewhere in the UK. The question is at what point at a personal level to go actively into all possible precautions mode? However, whenever that point is I expect to be in it by the end of this week at the latest if not sooner due to developments.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Forget the icing sugar because you’d have been taken out by the flour dust explosion when making the cake…………. Flour mills have long been danger zones and that’s even without the presence of concentrated oxygen.
You are right of course though, Ed. I should have mentioned need to learn about good safety practices and come to think of it the need to religiously sanitize the kit daily to avoid turning that kit into a highly efficient bacterial or fungal pneumonia generator.
On a different tack I hope the Brit today diagnosed in Majorca with the virus was not a Club’er or the spread will be out of control instantly.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Richard, as I said earlier I do not see this as likely to be a conspiracy. But a cover-up, yes. So in part we agree. Experimenting with viruses to further medical knowledge and seek cures is relatively common place. It is not implausible that such a construction may escape. It’s a bit like the old IRA adage. The virus only needs to get lucky once to escape captivity. But it remains that whether this is or is not man-made is now purely academic, is it not? It’s in the community despite its origins. That is what we must deal with.
Practicalities and Realities
With the NHS already being stretched to the point of failure during the normal flu season I think all of us here know that if the coronavirus breaks fully in the UK one’s chances of ever receiving effective medical care will diminish very rapidly indeed as the numbers grow. The NHS will be overwhelmed almost instantly. Therefore it is surely prudent not merely to consider the best steps to avoid getting infected but to also consider to what extent self-care is possible if one does become infected and suffers significant symptoms at the point where there are miles of queues at all A&E’s; that is to say when self-care has become pretty much the only available option.
In hospital the universal mainstay of supportive therapy for 2019-nCoV patients is Oxygen. Because once one is hypoxic all organs are increasingly threatened and one’s own immune system’s capacity to put up a fight falls rapidly and dramatically. It follows that when looking at ways to provide supportive care at home in the event that the NHS capacity is entirely overwhelmed supplying Oxygen is paramount.
These days home oxygen is not usually ‘bottled’. Rather, what are called Oxygen Concentrators are used. These selectively remove nitrogen from ambient air to provide an oxygen enriched gas steam as high as 90% oxygen and approach the practical effectiveness of ‘bottled’ oxygen which in any event is almost never used much above 95% in any event.
Oxygen Concentrators that can run 24/7 and can supply up to 6L a minute can be purchased from UK stockists for about £150-£200. Search ebay. But here’s the rub. Most of the affordable devices are produced in China. Hence current UK stocks will I suspect dry up very soon with little prospect of re-supply in the near future. True, buying a concentrator now which may never be used or indeed may not be sufficient to sustain life even if it has to be used could be a total waste of money. However, I view such expenditure as insurance when we are facing a genuine threat to life. One thing self evident; better to have one unused in a cupboard with the only hit being to one’s bank account than get to the point of desperately needing one but none being source able. YMMV but my mind is made up. Ordering today.
If you don’t already have one a Pulsoximeter is a useful ‘canary’ to monitor blood oxygen saturation. Below 90 sats is of concern and below 88 you do need oxygen.
I am now truly in full preparedness mode not least because the head of the WHO is now telling states to prepare for a pandemic. Hardly surprising now that aerosol transmission seems verified. While direct contact was thought required this was perhaps containable. Now not a chance in hell. BTW most experts now believe that once lag time between infection and death is accommodated in calculations the fatality rate is well in excess of 4% of formally diagnosed patients. Today’s fatalities to date are a reflection of the number of cases diagnosed six or seven days ago. It simply took a week to kill them. So its 813 deaths from 19.7K. Younger fitter patients who eventually succumb have far longer lag times. Dr Li put up one hell of a fight 26 days from confirmed diagnosis to death.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
For those getting prepared aerosol transmission means goggles as well as masks. But they can of course be sanatized/washed each day.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
OH SHIT – Now we know why they are scared and spraying.
Confirmed transmission routes of the novel coronavirus include direct transmission, contact transmission and aerosol transmission, a Shanghai official said on Saturday.
“Aerosol transmission refers to the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols, which causes infection after inhalation, according to medical experts,” said Zeng Qun, deputy head of the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau.
See here.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
@Bob and Richard
I guess it depends on how you define a Conspiracy. For me inherent in its definition is a plot or plan enacted with forethought. I certainly do not think all of what is occurring fits such a definition and was planned by anyone. Things that occur by accident and which folks or states then desire to circumvent any accountability for, I myself term a Cover-Up. Here the indicators I believe hinge towards such being a real probability. I have heard two UK based medical Professors on two different radio channels say today in similar words that most virologists and epidemiologists believe there are things that the Chinese are not currently telling us. Another Professor from Imperial College London was explicit in an interview broadcast on the web that he feels the true number of infected in China is likely to be ten times the number published and outside China four times the current figures through non-detection. Certainly it seems likely that the infected numbers in China, a state of over 1.4 billion are likely to be far higher than the published 35K; given that there have been over 61 infected on a ship of 3,700 passengers in Tokyo.
The apparent linear growth in newly diagnosed cases over the last four days rather than the exponential growth seen previously is likely to be because testing capacity is currently at full capacity; hence there can never be more than a finite number of ‘diagnosed’ new cases each day.
As I said earlier China’s actions are wholly inconsistent with being a reaction to a flu family virus, which from what they are saying, is killing less numbers than are killed in road accidents there every week. The Chinese reaction suggests to me that those at the top of that state are very scared by this virus and if that’s so then I for one am more than willing to join them.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
The thing I posted above about it knocking out one’s immune system troubled me. Then I recalled seeing this earlier today. I’m finding what at first seems to be a crazy conspiracy theory more and plausible by the day and by the hour. China’s reaction is far too over the top, crippling is own economy with multiple city lock-downs, spraying streets on such a scale and all for the number of deaths they say are occurring which are less than China would expect from a normal flu outbreak. Me thinks China knows more than its saying.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Should have added that the article also provides good info on the progression of the virus in those who need substantive care and also details the routes by which it kills the unlucky ones. It seems that rather than it being simply intractable respiratory distress that leads to death there is often a total war of attrition between the virus and one’s immune system. In simple terms rather than one’s immune system at that point simply being ineffective against the virus at that stage one’s immune system totally dies on its feet from exhaustion and multiple organ failure follows.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Just read this. It makes you feel what its like to be there in a hospital at the heart of this crisis. It made me shudder. Especially the comments about another local hospital where 40% of the staff are infected and those that are now don’t bother any longer to wear protective gear in the segregated coronavirus ICU; quite rational really because both they and patients in the unit are already infected.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Yes, I was thinking along those lines.
As an aside I’ve always been fascinated by name structuring and protocols in different races in respect of what we consider to be surnames. The Indian name Patel, for example, originated not as a name but a title for a head, leader or lord. In parts of India it remains a title being used as such to be respectful. At the same time all Sikh men strictly speaking take the surname Singh as most folks know. However, all Sikh females strictly speaking take the surname Kaur; although the rule is sometimes not followed in the west as generations progress. The Icelandic system is even stranger yet incredibly simple. Male surnames are simply the father’s first name plus the suffix “son”. So Magnus Magnuson’s father we know instantly was also called Magnus as a first name but his second name could have been anything depending on what his father’s first name was. Icelandic women follow the same methodology but this time based on their mother’s first name and adding “dóttir” as the suffix, which is Icelandic for daughter. So for example Freda Gretadóttir would be Freda the daughter of Greta. This must all be a nightmare when it comes to plotting family lines because there is no family surname as such and only siblings of the same gender are ever certain to have the same last name.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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