@thevfmaddict
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……… If PHE had given out details of the journey time and whether he was in the front, middle or back of the train, together with a request for such people to dial 111 that would at least have been helpful. Luckily it appears that such precautions were unnecessary, but there seems to be a gaping hole in PHE procedures when it comes to potentially multiple contacts.
We can’t know that.
Some folks suffer this mildly and don’t even know it is what they have so never contact medics. But those people are still infectious. This cycle may repeat. This ‘chain’ is only picked up when the virus ends up in someone who suffers severely enough to suspect Covid-19 and contacts either 111/a medical centre/hospital. There may of course often be more than one undiagnosed generation before this happens because 82% of folks do not suffer a severe infection. That can take several incubation periods.
The Government and media are aiding such covert progressions telling people so often that currently they are most unlikely to have caught this hence folks will not contact medic for fear of appearing paranoid.
We simply cannot know as yet if Super Spreader spawned any currently invisible chains and most probably never will. It is Covid-19’s sharp bipolar profile as regards its effect on those infected that adds to its danger. Chains can grow significantly before first being detected.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Reported in the Evening Standard –
Speaking about the woman with coronavirus who took an Uber to Lewisham hospital, Rachel Thorn Heathcock, a consultant at Public Health England, said: “We are in contact with Uber to ensure the driver receives advice and information on what to do should they feel unwell in the coming days.”
“As the journey was less than 15 minutes, the driver did not have close sustained contact with the individual and are not considered high risk.”
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Would this Rachel Thorn Heathcock be happy then to sit with this infected and symptomatic lady in a cab for 14 minutes without any PPE; provided that she could leave the cab before the 15 minutes expired?
I personally would have thought the location and circumstances of a contact are far more critical than its duration. A cab is close confinement, especially in this weather when all windows are likely to have been closed in the car. Surely 10 minutes contact in a cab is far, far greater risk than 20 minutes chatting to someone on a bus stop bench out in the open? Especially if one is luckily sitting upwind of the infected person.
I truly don’t see the logic of the 15 minute rule. It seems too arbitrary to me and ignores circumstances. It also implies one can spent one’s day with dozens of infected people but not be high risk provided you spend less than 15 minutes with each of them (just being sarcastic there).
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Your words suggest that she contacted 111 almost immediately after her return but all reports say it was a couple of days after arriving before symptoms presented. It seems she traveled home on the London Underground from Heathrow. Heaven knows how you identify all the passengers she was close to for more than 15 minutes during that journey from Heathrow or for that matter stood close to milling around the baggage carousels at Heathrow and who would not all be from her flight.
All the Epidemiologists I have heard speaking are of the opinion there will almost certainly already be three times the number of infected individuals in the UK right now as we are aware of. So that’s two out of three spreading without tracking. Of course as it takes root in other countries plane landing from any country may have an infected individual on them. It will get in; if not now next week or next month. It will then bloom. The big difference ‘tween this, SARS and MERS is its R0. It is far more infectious than the other two even though it causes less fatalities per infected individual. The high rate of reproduction (i.e. its R0, the new cases generated per case) means it will not die back until there is approx, 65% herd immunity in the world population. This is why ICL estimate that 60% of the world population at least will ultimately become infected before this is over. Its all good known science and proven modelling techniques. ICL also calculates 1% fatalities. Normal flu on average kills 0.01%.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
44 more confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess as I post. This data was released 3 hrs ago but still nothing about in on BBC News website. Is the MSM being told to delay or drip feed bad news? I said in an earlier post I expected a final ship total over 300. I think now that that’s a gross underestimation. Japan enough is enough – Evacuate that ship TODAY !!!
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
CT scans (far better at looking at what’s happening in lungs than X-Rays) are now being used by China as the mainstay of diagnosis. I must say I personally prefer this clinical approach to diagnosis essentially because it is instant. Although there will, I assume, be a very slight potential for mistaking multi-lobe bacterial pneumonia not associated with Covid-19 for Covid-19 in patients. However, that risk is likely to be no greater than the risk of a false negative or false positive lab test.
Using this approach new cases in China have sky rocketed in the last 24 hours. I would also suspect that we can be certain that these are relatively severe if there is clear CT evidence of significant pulmonary inflammation. The finite limit on the availability of testing kits removed we can now begin to see the true growth in cases. But today’s figures versus yesterday’s really only define the difference between the two method’s of diagnosis. Until we have several days of the new approach we can’t begin to see whether the trend in China is towards a declining or accelerating growth rate. My personal suspicion is that as folks slowly return to employment in China rather than hiding at home this virus will seize the opportunity to capture new victims. Yet I’ve not seen any expert voice an opinion about that dynamic.
In other somewhat obscure news China seem to be partially waking up to the ramifications of this virus being airborne. In Beijing area, “The operation of the air-conditioning and ventilation system in offices and public places should be halted once a suspected or confirmed case of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus is identified there, according to a circular issued by a State Council joint task force.”
I’m personally convinced that airborne transmission via unprotected eyes is a vector heavily implicated in the high infection rate of this virus. All official workers in China appear to be wearing goggles but almost all of the public are wearing only masks. Someone needs to look at infection rates in these two groups. Logically the official workers who are dealing with many infected individuals should have a far higher infection rate than the average China Joe. If they have not or the difference in rates is small this would go a long way to supporting the eye transmission theory. Note I am not suggesting that we compare those in full hazmat suits with China Joe; just those where the only difference in PPE between Chinese Joe and Chinese official is goggles. To me, who had many discussions with doctors during my time in the pharmaceutical industry about pollen affecting eyes in the hayfever season, this vulnerability and transmission vector is ‘kin obvious. Folks who severely suffer runny eyes during the hayfever season find it is solved pretty much completely by wearing goggles when out.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Almost 5% of the people on my estate work at Heathrow. Heathrow is in my Borough. As for those on her plane how many used the Underground to get back into central London before the balloon went up. Sorry, Richard, but I’d be an idiot not to think it possible I’m now in a viral war zone.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Personally I’d trust Imperial College London more than the Uni of East Anglia. They are square and centre at 1% which is 50 times higher than what East Anglia seem to be saying. Never known ICL get anything far wrong. And that MRC at ICL is the WHO Collaborating Centre for infectious disease modelling.
As for what WHO are saying well their Chief is square and centre that this is public enemy No 1 and a greater threat to the world than terrorism. Hear him say it if you wish.
Anyway matey it seems you are convinced China was shut down because of something that is little more dangerous than normal flu which kills 0.01%. A lot of fuss about nothing then.
Oh boy how I wish you were right but the evidence, good robust evidence overwhelms that you are not. By the way I don’t think that tin-foil helmet will be worth buying when it eventually dawns on you what we are facing. A face mask and googles will probably be better. I think its the goggles that were China’s big mistake. We now know that this virus is airborne and of the three main entry routes – Mouth, Nose and Eyes – masks, which all in China were wearing, only cover the first two.
One last thing to ponder. Do you think that the terrified passengers on the Diamond Princess have not been practicing good hand hygiene? Yet the numbers continue to grow even of those who don’t leave their cabins. To me that also makes clear how this is must almost certainly be airborne transmission. Or do you think that despite all that has happened the passengers on that ship still can’t be bothered to wash their hands?
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
FFS !!! The Evening Standard website reports –
The Department for Education has written to schools ahead of the half-term break signposting them to public health advice.
The letter says: “You should not be unduly worried about the possibility of your children catching the coronavirus.
“There is no reason why your children should not continue to attend their early years, school or further education setting as normal.”
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Now I’m beginning to think the Government are not only dithering they truly may be plain stupid. Yet another Michael Fish moment but with far greater consequences.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
As I said before, Ed, SARS and MERS, which in the end amounted to nothing for the UK, have left folks thinking this will be no different. The rapid recovery of the Super Spreader only reinforces that misconception.
I’m not sure therefore that everyone would have disrupted their lives by 14 days self-quarantine. And truly, would that work because their families would probably still go out taking gifts from the ‘contact’ with them. I think the Government would have had to go in very heavy on this one for it to ever work – forced Chinese Style. But they are too weak and hesitant to ever do that. So, just as it often is in the UK, it will be a case of the three D’s. Dither, dither, disaster.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
………….. You are more likely to die in an accident in the home than on the road and far less likely to die from Covid-19. ………………
This month probably so. Next month possibly so. April, May, June, July………not a chance in hell. The WHO say that 60-80% of the world’s population will be infected. Imperial College London say at least 1% of those will die. That’s at least 400,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 even before we include those who die due to the NHS not being able to care as well for all over illnesses due to overload.
Flu in it worst years kills no more than 10,000. Total Avoidable Deaths from all accidental causes and suicide have not passed 160,000 in England and Wales during any year this century and are usually half that. So let’s just tell it like it is. It is going to be hell of a kind that none of of us here have ever experienced; unless we lived through WW2. Those are the facts, Richard, from wholly reputable sources. But if you think that stating them is scaremongering then that’s your prerogative; and frankly I kind of wish I too could put of facing up to this guaranteed catastrophe for a little longer but I can’t.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
More bad news from the Diamond Princes !!!
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Now now don’t chastise Measly Matt, Ed, he has at least said that this is going to get worse before it gets better. So he is telling the truth. Although its like having said in the mid 1930’s that the coming problems Hitler would cause would get worse before they got better. That statement by Measly Matt might one day be viewed as akin to peace in our time or at the very least a deadly Micheal Fish moment.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Should have added that the smiling face of the Super-Spreader adorns many front pages. That is the most disgusting factor of all. Because inevitably the uninformed folks will see him smiling and fully recovered and think – Well if even he survived it obviously can’t be that bad. To me it looks like the majority of the UK population due to a total lack of forethought by the media is being set up for a truly brutal sucker punch
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Just reviewed all newspaper front pages (for Thursday). Yet again most don’t even mention Covid-19. Pretty much universal head in the sand down-playing as if what is about to occur is not the most important news story around – Which it is !!! HS2 far bigger news than SARSCov2 – yeah right @&#$ !!! The Daily Mail excels itself with a fpage that is dedicated to holding that our ageing population is a health crisis. Not a mention of Covid-19 as a health crisis. Oh well certainly Covid-19 will soon mitigate the threat to the NHS caused by our ageing population because we are surely on the brink of the now inevitable greatest cull ever seen and which will be more comprehensive than it should be due the lack of preparedness education. Or is that the idea!
The Times majors about No 10 being fearful that dangerous criminals will be out in days forgetting it seems that a major criminal – Covid-19 – which the WHO says is more dangerous than the worst of terrorists attacks, will be with us just as soon.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Two Names which in reality mean much the same !
I suspect there may be some confusion regarding the names used over the next few weeks. I was certainly confused reading various articles this evening. I’ve just learned that the virus has actually been given the name SARSCov2 and its the disease which it causes that has been named Covid-19. The relationship it seems is exactly the same as that of HIV (the virus) to the disease it causes which is AIDS.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Well at least the WHO Chief has at last stopped pulling his punches. He warns COVID-19, is ‘public enemy number 1’ and more powerful than terrorism attack. That is something the public can relate to.
Share the link because the advice sections down the righthand side of the page are all valuable.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
It is not going to be very difficult to contain this virus it is going to be impossible. But given the twitter news feeds from China I can understand why our Government, indeed any government would hesitate to tell our populous that it is coming here. It would be almost as likely to cause panic as would saying Russia had launched ICBMs at us and that they were incoming. Few politicians would have such balls and even Churchill didn’t tell the population the full truth post Dunkirk and how had we not very marginally had air superiority over our own skies the Third Reich could have waltzed across the channel meeting little resistance other than at guerrilla levels.
The big difference is while Churchill kept the facts from the populous he also made sure the populous was told how to prepare in a way that did not cause panic. This government has not done such and in the main the media neither have to any real extent; at least not square and centre, only in tucked away places.
Right now, right away they (i.e. the Government and the MSM) should be pushing preparedness; even if they temper it with adding that it is just to be on the safe side and probably will not be needed. Do that and there will not be last minute panic when the reality arrives. It is rather like training. Knowing what to do when the bovine excrement actually hits the rotary cooling device is far, far better that being hit by the excrement out of the blue while having no cleaning products ready to hand or having no idea how to use them.
I’ve spoken to several folk today upon whom it is dawning what is about to happen. These are folks I advised a week or more ago to buy masks, etc., but are now saying that can’t find any in the shops. To an extent the media are guilty of causing this apathy. They overplayed the threat that SARS and MERS were. So folks assumed this too would be something that would fizzle out. Even a pharmacist I know well was still apathetic re Covid-19 just 5 days ago but is today in OMG mode as she can at last see the lights of this juggernaut coming at us. Tell you one thing outside of a hospital the local Pharmacy will be the worst environment to work in when this hits. Talk about high volume exposure as folks, many already infected, come looking for masks and self-meds.
I’ve certainly been banging the preparedness drum; I never did with SARS or MERS. But this time the writing was on the wall in sufficiently large letters early enough to allow for preparation. I will be in a “I told you so” position, which not only will I never voice but which I will hate to the nth degree being in. I’ll just get angry with myself for not having found a way to convince them to prepare. I felt like that today speaking with two folk that I truly doubt will survive given both their general medical status and failure to prepare in any way at all. I felt like I was talking to the soon to be dead and it was emotionally traumatic once I was out of their company. I can see what’s coming. It is no hard to do and for me therefore the pain of it is already here.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
The evidence is that 82% of people will handle this virus little differently from normal flu. So for many what happened with the Super-Spreader would be the norm relatively rapid recovery without drama. However, 15% get it severely but are never critical. To what extend their passage to critical was thwarted by medical intervention or what that intervention was I do not know. The other 3% do progress to critical. Some survive some don’t but clearly that is often with good supportive care.
What is of great concern is that of those currently diagnosed very few have recovered yet; far less than 10%. This is not to say those who have not yet recovered will die. But, and here comes the rub, they are clearly taking up beds. So even were the death rate of those hospitalised in the UK to be low but recovery protracted, that only makes overload of the NHS even more likely. It is as if this virus has studied military doctrine and is following the practice that a wounded enemy who needs far more than simple first aid places far more drain on the enemy’s resources than killing that individual instantly. This virus is far more than anything like a highly dangerous but nonetheless short lived 5 day flu. The stats suggest it is more like on average a highly dangerous 3 to 4 week flu before recovery is typically likely to be achieved. The resource drain of even those who in the main survive will be fatal to the NHS’s capacity to deal with anything else. A full week’s wait for an ambulance perhaps? By which time the matter will already be settled one way or the other and either no ambulance or a hearse will be required. Bring out your dead !!!
As regards self-meds while Aspirin and Ibuprofen might be of use, Paracetamol, is by far the best for dealing with high temperatures. Perhaps not a bad idea to stock up on all now.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
The smoking issue will logically negatively affect survival rates s it does with an pneumonia. However, I suspect the difference is not such as to explain the difference between 1% of confirmed cases outside China but the 18% that is now being postulated for within China. Certainly there is a difference but not such a severe one in other pneumonias.
I suspect death rates will increase outside China as state’s health services become increasingly overwhelmed and are unable to any longer provide optimal supportive care for most of the infected. As my earlier post probably implied my gut feeling is that a 1% death rate in the UK will be highly unlikely especially once one includes incidental deaths due to overload. Heaven knows our NHS overloads even in heavy normal flu seasons with operations needing to be put off. One’s chances of getting optimal supportive care if you need it will surely fall as the number increase to the point of it being extremely unlikely you’ll get it. Then it will pretty much be solely the ability of one’s own immune system to win the war without back-up which decides one’s chances of surviving.
One thing I should have added re one’s own PPE is that if one has any cuts on one’s hands the virus can enter easily before one gets to washing one’s hands. Therefore disposable rubber gloves possibly two of the thin ones on each hand surely become essential to add to masks and goggles.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Breaking New this bugger now has a name – ‘Covid-19’. Can’t help but wonder if the covert nature of this virus given that it can spread pre-symptoms influenced that choice.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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