@thevfmaddict
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Doesn’t add up does it?
Our gates have been wide open and people have been arriving in the UK from China, HK, South Korea, Singapore, Iran, etc. etc since this all began with effectively no checking. Folks are infectious even before they have any symptoms so are invisible and cannot be clinically diagnosed at time of arrival.
Yet to date we are told there have been only 13 cases in the UK – Those originating from the Alps Super Spreader plus one solitary incoming female Chinese National that self-presented for testing and then finally the four cases of those repatriated from the Diamond Princess. This just doesn’t add up. Unless the virus has heard of the Windrush scandal and refuses to enter such a hostile environment…………LOL
It simply must be that either HMG is aware of others cases and has kept it quiet (which is possible but I doubt to be the situation) – or – infected individuals have been entering and acting as viral time bombs infecting others unknowingly and which will suddenly explode and become visible only once incubation fuses burn out.
Will we soon mimic Italy’s sudden explosion of cases? To me it seems certain that we will; probably some time this week. Does anyone rationally expect anything different?
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
HMG says the NHS is well prepared. Well then it must have more than quadrupled its number of staff this last month and bought in at least 40 thousand ventilators machines over the last month. Because two out of three critical patients (3% of confirmed Covid-19 patients) require intubation for at least a week and often up to 4 weeks.
Crude calculations establish that allowing for a bell shaped distribution of presenting Covid-19 patients which peaks at three times the average number of cases per day during the epidemic; then at peak a minimum of 50K patients will need to be on a ventilator at any one time. Normally, the NHS has far less than 2K patients on ventilators on any given day. I would therefore hazard a guess that it probably has far less than 10K ventilators in its inventory. This means that preparedness would require it to have bought in at least another 40K machines. I’ll bet it hasn’t.
Again crude calculations – It appears that if you become infected and progress to severe/critical then you are likely to have only a one in five chance of getting the ventilation you need in order to survive.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
There it is again in the link that Bob posted. The soldiers in Milan have masks but no goggles. When will folks wise up. The virus can enter nose, mouth and eyes. Plus one is also more likely to unintentionally rub one’s eyes if one is not wearing goggles thereby increasing still further the chances of infection via that route.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Given the R0 (onward infection rate) of this virus is assessed to be somewhere between 2.3 and 2.6 others being infected by each case then the total daily figures for new cases should only begin to fall off once between 60% and 70% of the population is infected; because only then will the virus begin to have difficulty finding fresh victims with no developed immunity.
It follows that either 60%+ of China’s population has already been infected (something not totally beyond the realms of possibility) or China is feeding us a load of bovine excrement about the increased number of new cases each day. I suspect it’s the latter and that such spin about new cases now being close to non–existent is not for our benefit but instead to persuade China’s own workforce that it is now safe to go back to work. China cannot really afford for its industrial output to remain as low as it has been of late for very much longer.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Well, Les, probably no need to worry greatly about contact with that single customer at this time although washing his cup thoroughly obviously makes sense. Even were there 10,000 infected in the UK today it would still be remote that he was one of them. Two or three months down the road when there could be 10, 20 or 30 million infected individuals in the country and the situation will be very different.
Once this virus is established in the UK then the odds will be greater that not that we will catch it at some point sooner or later. However, there are huge advantages from catching it much later rather than being ‘an early adopter’….LOL. Catching it later means that medics will know better what does and does not improve outcomes so that is then on one’s side. Plus and it is a very big plus, once the huge growth spurt in infections has come and gone there will be a far better chance there will be beds, equipment and medics free to care for one. Whereas during the earlier peak it will be too much of a lottery as to whether there are and prized best possible care will be by no means guaranteed. For example, hospitals have a finite number of ventilators and many patients will need a period on one to get through this. This is truly one occasion where the later one gets to the party the better. So let’s all do everything we can to be as late as possible getting there, folks.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
ROFL ……….. Sky News get a political analyst with no medical training whatsoever to comment on how well South Korea will control this virus. From what I recall this guy couldn’t even arrange for his own children to be kept out of the room when he was broadcasting during the North Korean crisis. You couldn’t make this up. Funny isn’t it. Put the title Professor before a person’s name and some idiots believe that qualifies that person to be an expert on everything. Bizarre …………. and foolhardy.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
The link I posted earlier set out very well what should have been done to prepare the public and mitigate the effects on people psychologically and on businesses logistically. It made clear how the vital time bought by the initial attempts at containment should have been spend. But instead most of that breathing time has been squandered; and it wouldn’t surprise me if HMG doubles down and wastes most of what is left also.
Ed, perhaps I was mistaken and the BBC did not post re the Drive Thru’s. Your search seems to suggest I did. Perhaps it was the papers I first read about it in. I always check all front pages just before midnight, so that could be the case.
Anyway, as I’ve been saying for some time now we should all have been making our own preparations as far as is possible; not least by ensuring we have sufficient food supplies to last a very sustained lock-down. Plus have sourced at the very least some basic Personal Protective Equipment in case we have no option but to go out.
I consider such basic PPE to include masks, googles, gloves, pocket sized sanitizer gel and hooded wear. You can usually pick up clear plastic ponchos designed for emergency rainwear use in discount or pound stores and of course they can be rinsed off and wiped down with sanitizer gel on returning home and therefore allowing re-use. Alternatively normal hoodies can be hot washed.
As yet I am seeing no clear signs in the shops that more than a tiny number are stocking up for a lock-down. Truly no real sign real of extra food being brought so HMG has clearly done a good job instilling relative apathy. That means that when the panicdoes start it will be last minute and frantic with folks buying whatever they can buy (in volume) rather than merely what they have rationally worked out that they will need. In other words by ensuring that there will be last minute panic rather than an earlier considered response. HMG has guaranteed that shortages in the shops will be even worse. Once the virus takes off in earnest here and given how infectious this virus is I can well imagine that if the likes of Tesco, Sainsbury’s or Iceland have an asymptomatic infected driver at one of their distribution centres that whole centre could rapidly be non-operational because everyone self-isolates. With companies pretty much universally working JIT models the supermarkets would be empty of most items especially non-perishables and perishables within 48 to 72 hours. This is pretty much what happened in Hong Kong.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
South Korea overnight went to ‘Red’ Alert Level as cases passed 500. President Moon says next few days critical. Since then cases have risen to 606 as I post.
Turkey has not officially declared any cases but lots of videos being shared on the net from Turkey over the last day or so which make it highly likely it has reached there significantly.
Over here HMG has at least come up with a good idea for limiting hospital congestion. Drive-through testing points where a nurse in full PPE will take swabs. A brilliant idea meaning there will be less chance of A&E dept’s being clogged up by those who have symptoms but which in reality are caused merely by a cold, normal flu or a low grade upper respiratory tract infection which is not this virus. WOW someone in government with a brain. Who would ever have expected that? But I also note that the BBC news website earlier this morning had a full page about it that amazingly has now been pulled or put in some hard to find place. Errrrmmmm……..
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
This page I believe is an absolute MUST read. Please, please read it in full. Please take it on-board and please share it widely. Doing so will save lives. It will also in the long term reduce panic and help people cope psychologically by positive action.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Yes, Bob, there are early reports that the strain in Iran is somewhat different from the original strain. So mutation does seem to be occurring. But if this is so then past recoverees might not inform us as well as they might otherwise have done. The jury is still out.
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This thread by Kai Kupferschmidt is being lauded by many experts and by many lay journalists. All concur that that this German journalist has it pretty much right. The world’s governments must switch right now from a false reliance on the forlorn hope of containment, and which realistically is now impossible for the reasons he states, to preparing to logistically deal with this inevitable pandemic and its consequences; and prepare their populations (psychologically?) for what is to come.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
The virus is also beginning to bloom in Italy. Officials have ordered mass closures including public buildings, schools, restaurants and coffee shops in Lombardy region, Northern Italy, after cases quadrupled. How many Italians I wonder will decide instead to take advantage of Schengen and attempt to distance themselves from the problem by taking a long holiday elsewhere in the EU? Such is far easier from Northern Italy than the South.
Meanwhile back in Wuhan the ‘recovered’ are now upon discharge from hospital required to self-isolate for a further 14 days and designate where that will be.
South Korea has gone from this morning’s (GMT) 346 cases to 433. There’s still a lot of the day left during which to hit at least 500.
That folks are infectious before symptoms (which is now considered by all experts to be the case) means isolating folks once symptoms present is shutting the gate long after the horse has bolted
The WHO still believes there is a possibility that the virus can be contained (and probably also that the Easter Bunny and Santa are real). Anyone here agree with them and any longer believe that this virus is containable? When the likelihood is that South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Iran as well as Singapore have been seeding the world for weeks while pretty much states fixated solely on travelers incoming from China.
The time for folks in the UK to prepare before the panic rush begins is surely very rapidly running out.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
A few quick questions:
- When the virus gets to the UK and takes off do we have sufficient numbers of Police to cope with the public disorder that inevitably develops during the initial panic phase?
- As the number of infected individuals rises do we have enough Police to enforce isolation of the infected be that home isolation or by transportation to hospital/government facilities?
- Is law and order likely to break down far more in the UK than in other states which have high numbers of law enforcement officers (and that are armed)?
I am not scaremongering but rather seeking to raise issues that I believe we must all consider when developing our own preparedness. Going out once the virus hits could very well pose more dangers than from the virus alone.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
A very sobering thought is that South Korea’s rate of the growth in cases is far greater than the rate of growth see even on the Diamond Princess. In the last twelve hours alone 137 new cases bringing SK’s total to 346. 72 hours ago its total was only 31. Heaven help them.
The only upside is that we are likely to get the full data on what is occurring in SK whereas China’s data has been, to be generously polite, a little dubious. We will learn a lot of valuable information from SK’s bad luck. They are inadvertently taking one for the team.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I have said earlier in this thread that I doubt this was a bioweapon launched with a vengeance. But I am not totally closed to the remote possibility that it might have been engineered as such or for research purposes; because such simply cannot be 100% excluded.
I think that Bob highlights and I agree with him that, there exists an eternal truth. That truth is that a risk always exists when one keeps an open mind that one’s brains might drop out of that opening. But there is equally the eternal truth that unless one remains open to a possibility when plainly one still exists one can also fall into error.
From discussions with many senior clinicians over the years during my working life I learned that most medical misdiagnosis which does not derive of clear negligence on the part of physicians derives entirely of physicians excluding too early that which while extremely remote still remains a possibility.
Is this an man engineered virus produced for some purpose be it malevolent or benign which then inadvertently found its way beyond a lab? Almost, but only almost, certainly not.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Iran now admitting the ‘kin obvious. They are raked with the virus. Admitting it could be all over Iran. Iran’s population is north of 82 million. Its borders are porous. Here goes the middle east !!!
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Chloroquine Phosphate manufacturing gearing up at a pace.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
WTF is going on. See this. I’ve heard nothing about it. Has anyone else? Might be as the rider posts suggest nothing of concern but any Wuhan links surely raise questions.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Oh the irony if this were a bioweapon developed by China which for some racial difference only severely impacted those of far east decent. Only joking really.
However, despite cases all across Europe there has been no numbers explosion in any EU (or past EU) state. Therefore it must to be one of three things. Either all of Europe has been incredibly lucky – or – there is some ethic variable that impedes transmission/severity – or – the whole of Europe’s political masters are keeping ‘kin quiet about the real numbers. I’m truly not sure which it is? Come to think of it there is another variable – the mainstay’s of each region’s diet. I’ll leave that hanging as I’m not an expert re such.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
South Korea now knee-deep in this sh1te. Now up to 204 positive cases. So gone from 31 to 204 in 48 hours. Getting knee-deep that quick leads me to suspect they’ll by neck-deep within another 48 hours. Crikey, this virus is so damned infectious.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
For those wanting to boost magnesium (and some other vitamins and minerals) this page is a terrific quick swat tool and actually very readable/interesting. A few pumpkin seeds in with a dates and nuts mix works well and pumpkin seeds are also very high in magnesium. Adding a few small bits of dark chocolate enhances the mix even further both in taste and magnesium content.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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