@thevfmaddict
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Twaddle Dave ? Have a look at the European council foreign relations website. That is also where I got the more europe bit Ed.
If you had bothered to inspect the link I used you would have seen https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_more_europe_core_four Maybe you are right about May and what might have happened but she was the choice of the Conservative Party. If she had not been virtually forced by these same people to hold an election then maybe she would not be held to ransome by the DUP. Maybe — but also maybe if BoJo had not dissembled on the economic impacts of Brexit the referendum might have gone the other way! I will not get into the immigration debate other than to say that I do know that there were a sizeable number of voters trying to stop a totally different kind of immigrant, and Merkel holds a lot of responsibility for Brexit.
There in your last sentence you have it. Germany and to a lesser degree France direct the EU. Merkel is the one who drove through policies that were not in essence agreed with universally by other states re migration and allocation quotas. One simply cannot hold that the EU is an organisation of equals and write the last sentence that you did.
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I wonder if May has seen today’s YouGov Survey. The writing is on the wall yet again, revealing that Immigration Control is still a HUGE issue. Folks rarely voice it up front because of fear of being called racist. But polls show it.
If May fails to retake FULL control of immigration in whatever deal she eventually agrees then the Tories will be slaughtered at the next GE. There is no question whatsoever about that. Like it or not polls have shown that the only Tory with any chance of beating Corbyn is BoJo. Gove, Javid and Hunt have been shown in polls to fall far behind Corbyn.
Paradoxically, although I am a staunch Brexiteer, I do not agree with the sentiments of either of the two paragraphs above although I acknowledge the reality of them. I am very pro-immigration albeit with a level playing field that gives non-EU citizens equal opportunity with EU citizens. My reason for leaving was always identical to that of Tony Benn; which was that the EU is inherently non-democratic. Such is surely so given that the EU (the institution not the 27 other member states) is committed to ensuring we don’t get a good deal for fear other member states may leave. Give that some thought. Is that not the ‘institution’ putting its needs and desires first before those of its individual members’ right of self-determination?
As regards BoJo, I am not convinced that he is generally the ideal Tory Leader. But I do acknowledge the fact that he is the only Tory with realistic prospect of beating Corbyn. He would drive for a true Brexit rather than Brino. Therefore he may well be the right man for the moment. In this respect (although only in that respect) he might indeed be somewhat like his hero Churchill in that he will get the current job done only to be booted out (as was WC in 1946) after the battles were won. I spoke to two Tory activists last night who also hold this view and tell me it is pretty much the growing consensus among party members. They’ll fight for BoJo because he has a chance of winning but have little appetite for fighting for any of those who have pledged allegiance to what they see as the Chequers Sell-Out. Gove’s currency in particular is nose-diving with the party grassroots.
One of those local association members said not to rule out an outsider. She told me that if Penny Mordaunt abandon’s May fairly soon she might well become Tory leader. She is liked both by Tory MP’s and by grassroot Tories. This being so she could become one of the final two candidates that the Tory MPs put to the party. Carrying little past baggage Penny could well beat BoJo or anyone else she was up against. I wasn’t so sure. But the more I think about it today the more I realise that it could indeed happen. I think I’ll check out the betting odds because she could be a very good outside bet if one gets one’s money on early enough.
EDIT – 33/1. Had to be worth a small punt. £20 on instantly.
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What a load of twaddle EU facts behind the claims: UK influence
Are you disagreeing with with all of Full Fact’s reports/studies or just the one you link to, Dave?
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I can sympathise with Bob’s sentiment. We are just treading the very same ground as pre the referendum. All we have learnt conclusively is that if one has a Remainer as PM then Brexit negotiations will go bad, very bad. The Italian Deputy Prime Minister, himself a former MEP, pretty much summed up what a foolish appeaser Theresa May has been – See here
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@ Spedley
I think in a funny sort of way you have highlighted common ground right there. While I do not share your position on Brexit I can relate to your feeling of being dragged along with something you had not consented to.
Those of us on the other side feel just the same of the period from Maastricht, when the Trading bloc morphed into a political union, to the ref vote in 2016. Major took us in without us even being given a vote. So matey, while we have different opinions re Brexit we probably have identical experiences of the feelings of being dragged along with something to which we were steadfastly opposed. Its a funny old world.
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Brexit can’t work, pretty much by definition. The EU stated that the UK cannot be better out of the EU than in it. Not in a nasty way but if we have a great time after we leave then it would undermine the EU and it could fall apart. I’m sure you think that is great but from the EU’s equally valid viewpoint it isn’t. The EU is between 6 and 10 times the size of the UK so, we WILL lose.
Errmm….. I’m sure there were very similar arguments put forward in 1939 and again after Dunkirk. Oh and because, ‘The EU stated that the UK cannot be better out of the EU than in it’, it must be right. Of course the EU even were it right would be talking purely financially. I tend to value some things above money. Just as Tony Benn did.
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Bob, it was Heath who gave us the Common Market vote from what I recall not Thatcher.
@ Dave,
Pre the Brexit Ref most experts were saying Sterling was over valued by around 13%. So it has now corrected. Not sure that one can put that correction down to Brexit.
I did not say we would be forced to join the Euro rather that such could happen down the road. ‘Twas the same with my other comments. I agree about Westminster but we can lead a protest march there if we disagree rather than have to march to Brussels !!! As for fake news the fake news is to suggest that the EU is somehow the known quantity and Brexit is a leap in the dark. Both are unknowns but rarely do Remainers admit such. That was all I was trying to highlight.
As for our interests not being the same as France and Germany that surely must be so or our Economies and Main Industries would be identical which they are not. The last time I looked wine production was not one our main industries, for example.
As I said earlier we are just back at the primary battle grounds of 2016 again, are we not? Nothing has changed, passions are the same or perhaps even heightened. May has a far bigger problem than Major had because its not just a few Eurosceptic MPs she is faced with its close to the entire Tory grassroots. Even her own constituency association chairman has stuck the boot in and said not one concession more. And, we all know that the EU will demand more.
How many times must I stress the obvious which is that the ‘war’ within the UK will continue until the core question is factually answered – Will a full Brexit work or not? The only way that can be factually resolved is, ‘suck it and see’.
Finally, while I do believe there is very little in the EU that is good I would not say there was nothing good. In rejecting the EU I come fundamentally from the same position as was held by Tony Benn; which was that the EU is most definitely not democratic. Call me old fashion but I like democracy and agree with Churchill that while democracy isn’t perfect its way ahead of whatever is in second place. Frankly I don’t think that the EU even gets to that silver medal position.
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You may discount my view because I’m a remainer but I just can’t see any real benefit from Brexit. From human rights to sovereignty to trade, I just can’t see anything that will make any tangible difference to mine or most other peoples lives. Brexit on the other hand is looming large cloud of great uncertainty. Are we going to be so much better off … highly unlikely. Is it going to be worth the hardship in the long term … unlikely. Is it possible it could really turn out bad … yes. It just doesn’t make sense?
Can I paraphrase much of last paragraph. The EU is a looming large cloud of uncertainty. Where is it heading? Especially now that most votes are by qualified majority. Will it be heading in a direction that favours our interests which are not the same as those of the French, the Germans or the Eastern Europeans? If we stay in now thereby making it clear that we will never leave could we be taken for granted and abused? Are we going to be better off where the EU ends up? Probably not because the other members best interests are no always ours. Take a look at Greece to see how that works. Personally, I don’t like boarding trains that I have no idea of where they are heading and where I have next to zero control over it.
Let me put the ball in your court. Tell us where the EU is heading; what its future rules will be; whether members will be forced to join the Euro; whether members will eventually be obliged to join the EU Army? Just explain to me that you are certain what you are voting for by explaining exactly what it is. Because as I currently see it membership of the EU is every bit as much taking a leap in the dark as is Brexit. Indeed more so because now we have triggered Art 50, if we back out we flag that we are weak.
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Aren’t we just back where we always were? Remainers saying it will be disaster and Leavers saying no it won’t. The truth is that there is no hard data either way. We’ve been here before with disaster being forecast if we didn’t join the Euro. We were told that all big corporates would leave the UK because they needed to be inside the Eurozone. It didn’t happen did it.
Returning to the divisions in the UK, they will fester further until they cause an even greater infection unless the question of whether Brexit does or doesn’t work is answered finally and conclusively by the reality of a true Brexit not a Brino. To think otherwise is to ignore the reality which is that there is no other way to answer the question conclusively. Is there?
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Remainers all too often say that a new referendum would yield a stronger mandate because the public are now better informed. But in what way are they better informed?
From what I see all we have learnt is that if you put someone who doesn’t really want to Brexit in charge then you get a crap exit deal. It simply does not follows that because May could not negotiate a good deal one was impossible to negotiate. That’s like saying that because May didn’t get a grip of law and order while Home Secretary a grip in law and order can never be achieved by anyone. Utter nonsense.
Let’s get real. May is a manager and not a leader. She relies on advisers and civil servants too much. Just look what that did to the majority she inherited. Is it hardly surprising that she’s ended up with either no deal or a crap deal given that she made exactly the same mistake again and had an even stauncher Remainer than her (Olly Robbins) handle the negotiations on her behalf.. Hands up those here who would appoint someone to negotiate their next salary increase who passionately believed that they should not get an increase. No sane person would.
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Sorry for all the typos in the above post. I would have corrected them but the edit button vanishes far too quickly.
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I do not refute the factual aspects of negotiating with the EU, however what the pro-Brexit politicians and others are overlooking are the simple dynamics of negotiation. Negotiators (on BOTH sides) have to have a firm vision of what they are willing to seek as a compromise point. Neither the UK or the EU seem to have a tenable negotiating vision. That alone is worrying, but when you add in that each EU member state has to sign off on the final deal, the prospect of drifting into an ill-tempered hard Brexit that hurts everyone for decades becomes highly likely. As no-one voted for such an appalling situation, a second referendum is the only way of reconciling a highly divided UK populace behind whatever is the final outcome.
I have difficulty accepting that you even believe that yourself? A second referendum would surely cause even more division and probably only heightened animosity on both sides; adding the extra argument that democracy had been thwarted.
I do accept that there were almost as many people who voted stay as voted leave. But how different is that from marginal seats during GE’s? Should all those be re-run.
Ed, you know as well as I do that if Remain had won by even a single vote Cameron would have taken that as a mandate and stuck to it. Remember – He made very clear that this was a once in a lifetime vote. Indeed, it is that which is the common ground. Both Remainers and Leavers voted knowing it was a once in a life time vote and that the result, no matter the margin was the result.
I also accept that what has been achieved is not what was on ‘the leave ticket’. But as the negotiations have been run by a Remainer PM one can hardly blame the Leave side for that. Who knows what the outcome would have been if we had played hard ball from the start rather than conceding this, that and the other, over and over.
I think there is more chance of another GE than another Ref. But that won’t sort things out either because what Corbyn wants to do would not be accepted by the EU either.
I am an ardent Brexiteer, but even were I softer in my view I would still at this point decide that it has to be a hard Brexit because that it the only route by which the rifts can ever truly be healed in the UK. Try it and once we know its effects in the medium term only then is there ever likely to be a true consensus. I say again, because I believe it to be totally patent, al this has been caused by John Major, who committed us to such deep entanglement with the EU without our permission. It was always a recipe for huge internal conflict sooner or later. Had we vote in or out back then we would not be were we are today because the mandate would have been clear one way or the other.
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I have three Irish neighbours two of whom go home regularly at least once a year on holidays and for weddings, etc. Both share your view and surprisingly have told be before that a lot of their relatives back home think the same. As one of them, who is always a great humorist said to me, “Varadkar is a qualified doctor. So perhaps the fact that he gave up medicine and went into politics has saved one hell of a lot of lives”. LOL
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The GFA does not require that there be no border. Already the VAT rate is different north and south as so are numerous other taxes. Its a problem that can be solved if there is a will and there appears no appetite on either side of the N.I. divisions to return to the troubles. TBH the onus is more on Leo V. to come up with a solution than on us. The EU pressurise him on to hold firm on the border issue in the EU’s best interests but in reality his domestic interests are far greater because if he doesn’t help solve the problem a no deal Brexit will crush his economy. Eire has very little trade that is not with us or the EU. At least for us 60% of our trade is already outside the EU and has been growing year on year for three decades, while our trade with the EU has fallen in percentage terms year on year for three decades (as has the EU’s share of the global economy). As I said earlier, it is this ‘rock and a hard place’ for Leo V. that has made him so irritable/aggressive. His choice if he doesn’t find a compromise is Ruin his economy or anger Brussels? I envy his position far less than I envy May’s and that’s bad enough.
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In fact I am of the opinion that the more the EU manderins looked into the situation the more s**t they found themselves in. Their solution is to stick their heads in the sand and pretend its not happening.
Spot on. Ireland in particular would be hit for six by a no deal Brexit. Most projections I have seen have it losing north of 4% GDP. That’s why LV was getting quite aggressive talking about shutting his airspace to us. I don’t think he realised that we would have to reciprocate meaning the only way he or his exports could fly to mainland EU would be via the long way round north or south.
I suppose the big question is whether the heads of the other EU states will, when push comes to shove, place EU dogma before their own economies? My bet is they will not.
The soundings from the grass roots of the Tory party, and increasingly from Tory MP’s, are that May must now stand her ground very firmly indeed and leave the EU in no doubt that the UK will not cave in at the last minute and therefore if they will not play ball we will choose a WTO rules Brexit.
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Take heart, matey. Japan’s trade with the EU is miniscule compared to its trade with us. Yet they did a free trade deal with them. Don’t underestimate how much the EU needs a trade deal with us. Its a double whammy we hold. The main EU economies and Ireland cannot afford to have no trade deal with us; especially given that no deal means no £39B to plug the gap in its budget with us gone. Certainly Merkel could not survive losing exports to us and having to have her electorate yet again fund holes in the EU coffers. IF we hold our nerve political pragmatism WILL win out in the EU over its dogmatic rules. I say again they did a free trade deal with Japan without Japan joining the customs union or single market and without the ECJ having jurisdiction over disputes. The same with us IS possible even under EU rules.
How hard a no deal brexit would hit the EU is well argued here.
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Whatever happens there will have to be a final settlement of what we owe. If we refuse to pay it won’t look good to those we want to trade with if out first action is to renege on our debts. It’s all posturing and I think will get worse before a deal is done. Both sides need a deal so there will be one, the question is how badly will we be affected because it can’t be as good as we have now. Hopefully the answer is hardly at all but that will mean hardline Brexiteers making compromises I just can’t see them making on pure ideological grounds.
Dave, you appear misinformed or unaware that legally we owe nothing to the EU. The various treaties are clear in that respect. In reality such is a win-win situation for both sides. We owe the EU nothing and likewise the EU owes us nothing in respect the considerable equity we have in the shared assets of the EU.
No state could consider us to have reneged on a debt which the treaties are clear did not even exist.
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Tory party leadership rules require parliament to be sitting for a leadership election to take place. So no matter how many letters are handed in
I didn’t say a leadership election, I said a general election. The polls are showing the Tory’s losing ground rapidly, and with the clusterf@ck that they are making of brexit (meanwhile, ignoring the fact that they are supposed to govern the country, probably because they are too busy fighting with themselves), the rail crisis (and as a regular rail user, I believe that crisis is an apt word), suddenly trying to buy public servants with a pay rise that can only be paid for by more cuts in their respective employments (no new money). Let’s not forget, possible new taxes (so that they can claim to adherence to their manifesto of no tax increases – simply invent new ones), and particularly those aimed specifically at over 50s (which means the so called silver voters in many cases – possibly some of their best support) whilst continuing cutting taxes for corporates, and letting internationals off almost completely – and this is my field of expertise – will not get them any extra support other than perhaps financial from those same corporate backers. Don’t even get me started on the £1Bn cash for votes deal, paid for by those same taxpayers. But at a GE, it’s votes that count, and it’s votes they are sacrificing. And it’s a GE this country needs. To hell with bad timing, we need this government gone. EDIT: Full disclosure – I voted leave – but not like this.
Yep, I recognised that you were talking a GE. That was exactly my point. May cannot call a GE (always assuming she was mad enough to want one while Lab are ahead in the polls) without Parliament being in session. Due to the Fixed Term Parliament Act, the HoC has to vote for another election before the end of the current fixed term or there can be no GE before the fixed term ends. So as I said she is safe as houses until the end of the summer recess. Likewise, while a new Tory Leader might recall Parliament before the end of the summer recess and call for a GE, which obviously Lab would support, that too cannot happen because there can be no Tory leadership election until Parliament is re-sitting. Now consider the following.
If Tory MP’s want to oust May they get only one shot a year under the Tory rules. If there’s a Leadership election and May wins she is totally fire proof for a year with not even her own party would be able to shift her. This is why many Eurosceptics and many MP’s in marginal seats are holding back on handing letters into the Chair of the 1922. There is no point in triggering a leadership election until it is clear there are enough who want May out such that she would lose a leadership race.
The summer recess will be critical in every area. How much extra will May have to concede to the EU? Will that be too much for the remaining Brexiteers in her cabinet? Will MP’s come under so much pressure from their local associations that they realise May has to go? Or will May’s tour of local associations during the recess win those associations over? Plus what will the voting intention polls show during the recess? Will Lab strengthen? Will the UKIP recovery strengthen? Or will Tory support strengthen? This is the Summer of Tory Discontent and its damn hard to tell which way it will go. I don’t ever recall a Parliamentary Recess which was as politically charged as this one.
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I’m honestly surprised she’s managed to last until now without another GE, and I’m not convinced that she will last through the summer recess.
She can’t help but make it through the recess. Tory party leadership rules require parliament to be sitting for a leadership election to take place. So no matter how many letters are handed in, be it 48 or 98, nothing happens until parliament re-sits. That leaves her with a whole summer to do her dirty dealings with Merkel, Junker and Tusk.
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Come to think of it perhaps May might like to take heed of another of his lines and follow its advice – “Would it save you a lot of time if I just gave up and went mad now?”
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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