@thevfmaddict
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The problem is that Remaining in the EU is an even greater leap in the dark than a No deal Brexit. The EU is morphing rapidly. Realistically we had very little influence while we were in anyway that’s how Drunker got elected so we would have even less say now.
If we were to stay now the EU could do with us as they please because they would know we would never leave. If leaving on May’s deal is vassalage then staying is deep into terrified, battered wife territory. We are where we are – The Rubicon has been crossed.
I think its time to dump the, Dad’s Army, “We’re doooomed, we’re dooooomed” mantra. We can survive well in the world on our own. To my eye’s it’s a sad day when Italy is standing up to the EU with far more backbone than the UK. I’m truly embarrassed by it.
I’m a greater believer in the old saying that if you say you can you possibly can but if you say you can’t then you’re right. Stay where we are and we’re stuffed. Leave totally and yes we might be stuffed but we’ll have a fighting chance and a chance that we are in control of. Why have we all become so negative as a nation with such little self-belief I truly don’t understand it.
As for what was said above about Farage he would have bitten May’s hand off if he had been offered a role in the negotiations. The truth is, like him or not, we have no-one who knows how to play hardball with the EU better than him.
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Zilch minus 5. Frankly although not intending to she’s selling “No deal” really well. I’ll bet she’s converting more MP’s to “No deal” than to her deal at present.
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I think May fell into the trap warned of by Kipling (and I don’t mean cherry cakes). In Kipling’s words: “if once you have paid him the Dane-geld, you never get rid of the Dane”. She thought each concession would be enough and of course it wasn’t; until all was gone.
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Anyone read the deal? I’ve read most of it. So we have back control of our laws do we?
- Art 101 – UK agree never to prosecute EU employees who may be criminals now or in the future.
- Art 104 – EU bankers and EU officials in London to be exempt from British law.
Theresa May is I believe utterly insane.
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To a degree I can but what of the EU? The problem I see with Remainers is that they perceive the EU to be the land of milk and honey for our exports. Go look at the figures. Fewer and fewer and fewer of our total exports go to Europe year on year. The fall in percentage is even increasing. There has been a steady and constant decline for 30 years despite the increase in cars being built here for export to the EU. Plainly our future relies on exports to the rest of the world not to the EU. Yet we cannot take full advantage of such by striking trade deals with those countries. I say again go look at the figures.
That’s the economic picture and heaven knows what the political picture will be? The EU is federalising at an alarming rate. Yet the internal rifts and conflicts are increasing. The number of groups pushing their states to leave although currently small are growing rapidly. No-one can argue with that because it is clearly there to see. Currently Merkel with the help of Macron keeps the bloc together but even the Germans are becoming more Eurosceptic with the rise of AfD. I simply do not see the next Chancellor being able to carry the German population into supporting the bloc financially, often at Germany’s cost, in the way Merkel has.
So is the EU future really any clearer than a Brexit future? If so then certainly not by much. It remains a huge unknown quantity even today. The argument about the EEC/EU being the reason there have been no more wars in Europe is plain silly to me. Do you really think Germany or France or Italy would have gone to war these last fifty years were it not for the EEC/EU? Other factors than the EEC/EU have been the reason for peace.
The question which I think focuses the mind best of all is this – If we were not today a member of the EU and looking at it as it is today along with where it appears to be heading, would you really vote to join? When I ask myself that question the answer is a resounding, ‘No’. And if that is the case then Leave, despite its difficulties remains for me the right decision.
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I think there is something of an additional paradox also, Bob. Most of us oldies didn’t vote for ‘us’ we voted for what we believe/believed was in the best interests of the young. I know I did. Certainly the main benefits of Brexit will not occur in my life time. Quite the reverse. My life will be spent in the hard hit years before the benefits come to fruition. I therefore do not believe ‘oldies’ voted for themselves, for what was in it for them; quite the reverse.
I’m also not sure ‘today’s oldies’ really remember the days of empire. That was the generation before. Empire was gone even before WW2 and certainly during and after it. What we do have though is experience and knowledge. No giant federalised state has ever succeeded except the USA. But that’s because the USA was never the coming together of already existent long standing states; it was an amalgam of folks who had all come looking for a new country. I’m just not sure that is so of European peoples. The reverse is true. Just look at the Balkans, Scotland, Catalonia, etc. Not to mention the states of the former USSR.
Across the existing EU states the far right is growing. Why is that? To me it derives of what many see as unfair treatment. Its that that always fuels the far right. Hitler motivated Germany initially and in the main against the unfair reparations it had been forced to pay post WW1. I’m not likening the EU to the Nazi’s. Rather I’m saying it is the nature of the EU that gives life blood to the far right. The feeling of distant control or control by others over whom one has no real and direct say. I have never been against European states co-operating and working together. But the EU bureaucracy has long since taken on a life of its own with a hunger for more and more power. It is not run by the member states, it increasingly runs the member states. As always, power corrupts and more and more power becomes the end that is sought more than anything. Do you remember how Mugabe was once the saviour of Rhodesia? Its not just individuals who can distort that way. So can anything with a life of its own and to me the EU bureaucracy is beginning to show the early signs of such madness. Its becoming the Hotel California…….You can check in any time you want but you can never leave. I genuinely find it unfathomable why more folks do not recognise that the tail is increasingly wagging the dog. Who really thinks the EU states control Junker and Tusk, etc. God, Junker even visibly acts like a Caesar indulging in drunken orgies of wine and food; and nominating his side-kicks to senior positions.
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Had to share this, it cracked me up…
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I’m afraid VFM that all this talk of trade omits the one major factor. You have to have a product that people want to buy. Germany has about four times the export trade to China that we do, In 2016 Germany exported $1.25T, making it the 3rd largest exporter in the world, and I seem to remember that Germany is in the EU! We would be a lot better off if the Rees Moggs of the Tory party invested in Britain instead of off-shore.
Correct in part. Most of those Germany exports are to other EU states. Indeed Germany exports more to us than to China and more to the Netherlands than to China. This German dependence on EU states for most of its exports is why Germany desires that its trading partners be locked into the EU and thereby disincentivised by tariffs from sourcing their purchases elsewhere.
As for us, our largest export market by state is the USA but that is declining. This is why we need to do our own free trade deal with the USA. Our main exports are machinery and pharmaceuticals and of course financial services; all are exactly what the developing countries of Africa and South America need. Plus we need their farm produce which free of EU tariffs would be much less expensive that what we pay for similar from the EU. Of course if you like sandwiches then North American wheat when free of EU tariffs is a fraction of the cost of EU wheat; and more nutritious because many centuries of over-farming in EU countries leaves EU wheat deficient in many minerals such as selenium.
The EU is entirely protectionist and overwhelmingly protectionist of France and Germany. Indeed, the CAP benefits few states other than France.
If you want to talk about exports the percentage of our exports going to the EU has been in decline for decades despite the size of the EU growing very significantly throughout that period. The figures are very clear that the EU’s significance to us as a trading partner is increasingly in decline. We need to look to the future.
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I know a few folks will baulk at the site this article appeared on but nonetheless it is an interesting consideration of Thatcher’s position on Free Trade and the EU.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I heard a good rebuttal of the no-one can know forecasting. I cannot predict the outcome of the Premiership fixtures on Saturday, if I did I’d be down Ladbrokes now. But what I can do is look at the league and especially with past performance in mind have a good stab at it. Will West Ham beat Chelsea? I suspect I will be more pessimistic than BL. Everyone knew that Osbornes predictions of gloom were as ridiculous as the over optimistic ones on the other side. Ignore the extremes, common sense tells you that we will lose, it’s just a question of buy how much. We are going to have to run quickly just to catch up with what we have, never mind improve on it. It will be super easy to piss off the supply chain businesses. We are losing already, I’ve just had another CCTV price rise to pass on due to the performance of sterling. Laptops are up by about 10% too.
Can’t argue that you’ve had price increases due to the performance of sterling. I’m not sure you can put that all down to Brexit and am totally certain that even if it were all down to Brexit it would still be a tiny swing. Tell me, Dave, do you put the fall in sterling from 1974 to 1985 a drop from around $2.40 to $1.07 down to us joining the EEC (as the EU was then) in 1974? Either way joining the EEC in 1974 certainly did sterling no favours. August 1992 we were back up to $1.99 and six months later by Feb 1993 we were back down to $1.42. So Maastricht also appears not to have helped sterling. Take a look here and run your mouse over the chart to see the rates at each point.
The reality is that swings since the Brexit vote are tiny compared to most historical swings, especially the massive drop we suffered in the first ten years of joining the EEC. $2.40 to $1.07 is a big drop. The drop we’ve seen since the Brexit is nothing given that before the vote most economists were saying that sterling was about 13% to 15% overvalued and no-one was even expecting a Leave result. I say again look here it puts the swing since the Brexit vote into perspective.
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So, please tell me, just what is the Brexiteers plan for the future of the country? Not some airy fairy sunny uplands crap, detail is what is required now. And what will the ramifications of those plans be? Again, detail. How long will it take to put these plans into action? Who is actually be doing the planning? Last weeks economic expert reckoned that the country would be better off with a fall in the pound. He also thought that we’d be better off if Sterling rose. So no downside economically then? Will Steve need an international driving licence next summer, will his insurance be valid? What about medical treatment? Will he need a visa? Should be be buying his Euros now? That what we mere mortals need to know just to plan our next holiday.
I share your criticisms of what May has done. No clear plan. Pathetic negotiation skills, etc. The only logical route was to go ‘No Deal’ from the day Art50 was triggered and then negotiate back from that if the EU wanted a deal. This half-in, half-out, let the EU take the lead approach is what has caused the chaos not the Leave Vote. Actually the ERG has published its plan. So its there to see if you want.
The simple approach for ‘mortals’ is to get an International Driving Permit; its £5.50 from selected Post Office branches. As for whether or not to buy Euro’s now; that has always been a question long before Brexit because currency markets have always been in a state of constant flux. Moving on, strangely, even while we were an EU member the advice was still to get Medical Insurance when travelling so nothing has changed there either. The only new unknown is whether or not Visas will be required. I can’t answer that for certain but I suspect it is remote given that many non-EU countries have Visa-free access to EU states. The reality for all ‘mortals’ is that the world is always changing and mortals must face up to such and not expect things to stay the same forever.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Brussels has shafted Gove’s reason for backing the Chequers Deal (i.e. that it could be varied in future). Let’s see of he has any danglers and walks. But perhaps more importantly could May ever agree to shacking all future PM’s? I suspect she too knows that would be a bridge too far. Perhaps even Dominic Grieve who has always held that he is all about maintaining the sovereignty of Parliament may baulk also. Because how could any PM ever agree to shackle the sovereignty of all future Parliaments? This all gets more interesting by the day. It might be, albeit remotely, that this new EU position is an affront that will sway even a significant number of Remainers to say enough is enough and finally boot the EU into touch.
Those who like conspiracy theories may wonder if Gove’s comments were lodged on Marr with the specific purpose of provoking such a response from the EU. Because sure as hell it gives May an ‘out’ re Chequers.
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What you are talking about, Dave, is Confirmation Bias (sometimes call MySide Bias) where one is only receptive to evidence which supports one’s own position or preconceptions and is blinded to all that contradicts it. Its is one of the known subconscious cognitive biases and by chance I am about to challenge two judges concerning errors of law by them; which the evidence compellingly suggests both erred due to preconceptions that in reality were contradicted by the evidence they were considering.
Returning to the Beeb, you again missed the point. Correct I could simply not read the Beeb news pages. But why should I given that I have been forced to ‘buy’ them. I say again if the UK is forced to buy the Beeb then there is inherently an obligation not to be biased. Like I said earlier, do you hold that Dominic Grieve is a “Tory soft Brexiteer”?
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I think you both miss the point (Dave and Ed). Do you buy the Daily Mail? Are you legally obliged to buy the Daily Mail if you want to read the Independent or Guardian? No, of course you are not. The Beeb is in an entirely different position from any newspaper, isn’t it? Because even if we want to watch alternative live TV, such as ITV, Channel 4 or Channel 5 one must ‘buy’ the Beeb (i.e. pay the licence fee). It is this obligation to purchase which inherently demands of the Beeb unbiased reporting. Given your views, how would you feel if you were legally obliged to buy the Daily Mail every day because if you didn’t you could not read any other newspaper? So what I mean?
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So we all agree with the Beeb then. Dominic Grieve is a “Tory soft Brexiteer”……………..ROFL What next? Farage is an “Independent soft Remainer”…………….?
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Well actually VFM i’m rather glad that Major didn’t call for a vote back then. You see we would have been told that it was just another minor tweek to the treaty and that this vote thing was just a legal formality. The nation would have fallen for it too. Voting in then would have denied us the vote we just had.
I’m not sure that that is what would have happened. The Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party was just anti-EU then as now and a referendum campaign back then would have been fought as hard as it was in 2016. It was only that there had just been a GE that the Tories had just scraped through which gave Major the chance to threaten the Eurosceptics with making the Maastricht vote a vote of confidence suppressing them and strong-arming them into supporting the ratification. But as always if one suppresses a problem rather than addressing it then sure as hell it will blow open again sooner or later; after all it didn’t go away, did it?
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On a slightly different issue a lot of folks have said around the Net that there has been biased and manipulative broadcasting by the BBC since Brexit favouring the Remain side. I had never fully subscribed to that opinion myself. However, today I almost puked into my breakfast cereal when I read a BBC News page of a couple of days ago but which I had missed. Now I would say YES the BBC is being manipulative. It held Dominic Grieve to be a, I quote, “Tory soft Brexiteer”. As if him and his gang are Brexiteers (!!!). So now DG is being forwarded by the BBC as a Brexiteer who is the nice cosy face of soft Brexit. For heavens sake he is as rabid a Remainer as Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry. I think even the Remainers in this thread would have to agree that describing DG as a “Tory soft Brexiteer” is quite plainly manipulative reporting. ?
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It doesn’t help now re Brexit but I would be very interested to hear folk’s views as regards John Major’s culpability for where we are today. To get things started my thoughts are as follows.
Maastricht was the point of fundamental change from trading bloc to full scale political block. As I see it that was the point at which a referendum was vital. Instead Major strong-armed ratification through Parliament never resolving the two sides of his party; nor the two different opinions that would equally have existed in the country if asked.
Had there been a referendum at that time then extracting ourselves from the bloc, if that was the decision of the people, would have been a hundred or perhaps even a thousand times easier than trying to do it a quarter of a century later. Moreover, we probably would have been able to retain the trading benefits; which are what we had already signed up to and been part of at that time. On the flipside if we had, as a people, agreed to be part of the EU then it would have been the will of the people, one might say that there would have been the informed consent of the people to the political as well as the trading union that would be the EU.
To me the true culprit for all that has happened is not Cameron for calling a referendum but Major for not calling one re Maastricht. Simply putting a sticking plaster on an infected wound rather than cleansing it will almost always result in sepsis or gangrene. My firm belief it that Major’s unwillingness or cowardice in not purging the infection one way or the other before ratifying Maastricht is the true cause of why we are where we are today. He committed us to political union without the consent of the people; and the changes that Maastricht brought about were so fundamental that the peoples consent one way or the other was vital.
Discuss.
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@ ricedg
I agree with you 100% that democracy requires that the electorate can change their minds. The question is of course how long between each polling of opinion?
Plainly the electorate could change its mind re an elected Government the month after a GE. It would be preposterous to have another GE monthly if the electorate changed its mind. Therefore there have to be defined Terms of office.
It was made thoroughly clear to the electorate that the EU referendum was a ‘once in a generation’ vote. Cameron and others stressed such repeatedly. No-one was in any doubt about that. And you know as well as I do that if Remain had won then that ‘Term’ would have been stuck to; with no second vote to see if the electorate had changed its mind sooner.
Unless one wants to decent into the anarchy of giving the public universally the right to change its mind soon after all decisions, such as a GE’s, then one has to allow each verdict to runs its course before re-polling. Without such one does not reinforce democracy, quite the reverse, one makes a mockery of it. Why can’t you see that?
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I think you missed the point. Of course politicians lie, its what they do for a living. The point was that a second vote will change very little because if politicians won’t honour the first result then there are no grounds for believing they would honour a second. And before you accuse me of being one-sided or biased, I will say that such is the case for either and both sides. It mattered not which side won the war would have gone on.
I do think that the EU parliament gave Leavers a boost yesterday if there was a second ref. Triggering Article 7 against Hungary, which will take away their voting rights and cease all EU funding for Hungary, is an act of oppression. To the UK Conservative MEPs’ credit they voted to a man against that triggering along with UKIP, AfD and the Italian right wing MEPs. etc. If Brexit were reversed, showing that we would never walk then the EU would be even more likely to trigger it re us if we ever did not do what they wanted. It is increasingly likely that Hungary will follow us out of the door.
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I think this video is a real eye-opener as to the level of integrity one can expect from Major, Clegg and Ashdown.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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