@thevfmaddict
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Another myth debunked. Should we decide not to leave we don’t have to go back cap in hand to the EU 27 who will squeeze us until the pips squeak, make us join the Euro, annex Gibraltar, nick all the fish, etc. We just say we’re not leaving and that’s that.
I suggest you read the actual judgement that was handed down. It is well crafted to allow the ECJ to jump either way at a later stage when push comes to shove. It is nowhere near as clear as you imply, Dave. Go read it, folks.
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Duke, the one point you seem to be missing is that the percentage of our exports going to the EU is falling year on year and our imports rising. Our growth has been in countries outside the EU and usually with states were no EU trade deal even exists yet. The EU also is set on a plan to hamper our biggest markets – Financial Services – by instituting s new FS tax. It is untrue to paint the financial future within the EU as utopian.
The big issue is really Federalisation. It cannot be ignored. I do not believe that the majority of the UK are up for the Euro, up for a unified fiscal policy, up for a unified Foreign Policy, up for a Euro Army, etc., etc. I’m absolutely certain that Corbyn would not be no matter what he says. The supposed ‘fantastic deal’ we have as a member (i.e. a veto, exception from the obligation to closer political union, a big rebate, etc.) must and will be eroded by the EU given its ultimate goal. Remain therefore is NOT a vote for ‘that fantastic deal’ it is a vote for a deal that is absolutely certain to worsen, is it not? But of course, Remainers have not the honesty to admit such. They talk of the current terms of membership ignoring that they will worsen month on month and year on year.
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I voted leave, and my reasons have not gone away. In fact, if anything, the reasons I voted leave (and they are not the reasons Government seems to think that they can divine) have increased having watched, closely, the events of the last two years. However, if anything has been proven, it’s that whoever drafted Article 50 had no clue what they were doing and never expected or hoped it would be used. The fact of the matter is, having never been asked if we wanted to join the EU, the legal position is so tied up with bad draftsmanship and bad intentions that, I believe, no country will ever be allowed to leave. And so to my reasons, I don’t like dictatorships. It seems TM is also a dictator, simply refusing to accept what anyone tells her that doesn’t support her own vision, no matter how sensible the argument against her, and how bad her response (“I don’t agree with the UN report, so we’ll continue to cripple the poor, the disabled” being typical of her type of response). Now, despite my own, strongly held views, in a second referendum now, I’m not sure I’d vote leave again, but rather vote remain until the damned legislation can be made more robust and fair.
What legislation are you referring to?
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If we get caught in the backstop such gives third countries who have trade deals with the EU tariff-free access to the UK market, but the UK does not enjoy reciprocal rights of access to those third country markets. In other words, the UK domestic market becomes the EU’s to bestow at its pleasure, with tariffs set by the EU to suit the EU27.
The extent to which May (aided by Robbins) has been acting treacherously is only now becoming totally clear. Oh and Dave, what do you call the above if that is not vassalage? Our internal market becomes theirs to sell as they see fit.
Perhaps we should stay in the EU on our current terms and use our veto 100% of the time to freeze the EU totally and then see what they’ll pay us to leave and to be rid of us.
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Except all we get from the Brexiteers is wishful thinking. If you truly support Brexit then please explain just how and why the UK will be able to cut better trade deals than a bloc that currently has a larger GDP than the US. As a simple example, we already know the trade deal the EU has with Japan, how will we better that?
I wanted to reply specifically to this earlier post. It is not a case of getting a better deal although often that would be possible. Rather its getting more deals, more quickly.
The problem with the EU is that each member state has its own interests. For example, France would veto any trade deal on agricultural produce to protect its advantage in the EU. Therefore, we are far more flexible and can be faster of foot because we are not trying to balance 27 often conflicting interests. Its the advantage smaller ‘organisations’ always have. Also we would do trade deals with countries that the EU might not be bothered to. Honestly, who thinks it would have taken us, had we been out of the EU, 8 years to reach a trade deal with Canada? It is the need to get 27 different heads, most with different needs and desires, all nodding at the same time that causes the EU to take so long to get trade deals.
And, there you go. That’s also why we would be certain to be trapped in May’s backstop for many decades.
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Let’s get real. If we Remain and given the known general direction of the EU, Federalisation; then patently the EU can never let our ‘special terms’, a veto, no closer political union, big rebate, etc., stand for very long. It’s the same argument as currently. We cannot be seen to be getting better than the rest. This was one of the things I meant when saying no-one can be sure what Remain actually means. How long will our ‘special terms’ last?
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Errrmmm…. So each side picks its experts and publishes forecasts that back its own case. Not much change from the status quo really. I truly can’t see that healing the splits. Moreover why a 5 year forecast rather than a 10 year or 20 year given that all sides are thinking of the consequences for their children and grandchildren?
I’m not sure how a hard Brexit would break off Northern Ireland. It is a fallacy that WTO imposes a hard border it does not and in any event Good Friday makes no mention re hard borders. Scotland is a different matter because that has always been a possibility for other reasons and its hard to say how things will play out due to dynamics like fishing.
I still think that only the “suck it and see” method will ever resolve the public split.
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Well I think we can all agree that the divisions in the country over Brexit are as alive and well as they have been since pre-Maastricht. I suspect they will remain so festering until a complete Brexit occurs and its viability is fully tested such as to settle the matter one way or the other. Until either that occurs – or – the EU itself collapses or morphs beyond recognition, I simply cannot ever see this country being united ever again. Does anyone disagree?
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That’s not an unreasonable position to hold, Dave. But even the consensus is at times wrong. It was surely so about what would happen if we did not join the Euro a few years back.
However, as I have said over and over Financial considerations alone were not what drove the Leave vote. The question of full sovereignty and the direction of travel of the EU were factors also. I recall Clegg saying it was a fantasy to suggest that there would be an EU army on the horizon. But it was not was it? The reality is that it is impossible to predict where the EU will be heading to achieve its objective of a US of E. Or to predict its financial stability or to predict its disunity on route to that collective end. I say again the best interests of the whole are not identical to the best interests of individual states. I would not cite Greece which fiscally is a basket case but I would cite Italy.
The one bizarre anomaly is that here in the UK it is in major part the young that are Europhiles. Yet in every other EU state, without exception, it is the young that are leading the Eurosceptic charge which now is beginning in Spain also given the current regional election results. I have found no credible explanation of why our young are so different from all others in how they view the EU. What I am sure of is that in or out it is not the UK that poses an existential threat to the EU it is the other states’ own young.
If I had to take a guess at why UK young differs from the rest of the EU young, though I stress it is just a guess, I would say it is the inevitable urge of the young to kick against the mainstream or what they perceive to be the mainstream view of the generations older than them.
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Yes, and some predictions are rubbish. The University of Cambridge Business School has just trashed the Treasury Predictions. Take a look.
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Your interpretation of my statement is your interpretation of my statement. It is your spin to twist things in your own direction and assign to me a view that I don’t hold. ……
Dave, the last line of my post to which you refer was explicit that I was not assigning to you a view you do not hold. It read: “Dave, I fully accept that such was not your intent but intended or not such was unquestionably the effect of your words.” You can’t get clearer than that. I stated I fully accepted that such was not your view so how on Earth was I assigning to you a view you did not hold?
BTW has anyone noticed that Mervyn King has now come out to thrash May’s Deal in Bloomberg saying that if passed and signed with the EU we would sooner or later end up unilaterally ditching it no matter the legal position. Its an interesting read.
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Did I call them stupid? No I did not and I never have. That is just another example of what is happening, words being put into other peoples mouths. Everyone that voted the same way you did wants exactly what you want etc. etc. Trying to pit the south vs the north, urban “elites” vs good old country folk. London vs the rest. Try and pigeon hole someone and then attack that pigeon hole, don’t actually worry about whether it’s true or not. I think it just shows how poor the justification for Brexit is. When anything negative is pointed out divert attention, go on the attack in some other area. Speculate wildly on subjects you know no-one can actually predict with 100% accuracy, after all your outcome is possible in theory. No-one can accurately predict the future in the same way no-one can accurately predict next weeks football results. However those that know more about football will do better than me, especially when it comes to wins or loses vs 100% accuracy on goals scored. I don’t call them out as knowing nothing just because they can’t predict everything, especially for my favourite team.
Do you truly not see it that you are calling them out as knowing nothing? When you say they will be hit hardest you are obviously saying your vision of the future is correct and there’s is not. You’re saying that you can predict and they cannot or you can tell which expert predictions are correct and they cannot.
My background is in sales, marketing and business development. One of the golden rules is never knock an opposition’s product that a client is currently using because in doing so you insult that client’s ability to make good decisions. That is exactly what you have done here. In saying they’ll be hit hardest you are saying “You made the wrong decision, you don’t know how to chose correctly and I do.” Of course its an insult. Dave, I fully accept that such was not your intent but intended or not such was unquestionably the effect of your words.
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Yes, Dave, all the areas that voted heavily for leave will be the most heaviest hit. All those areas full of people too stupid to know what they were voting for………………………… I wouldn’t say that in a North East Pub if I were you, matey. They are sick and tired of being told they are stupid by Remainers and I don’t think you even know how furious they are.
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The EU is committed to increasing the GDP of the member states and contributions to the EU budget are based on national GNP. There is absolutely no incentive for the EU as a body to reduce the wealth of any member state.
The statement while true EU wide is non sequitur at individual state level. Redistribution of wealth is incentivised by the EU’s design and would suit the EU quite nicely. The EU’s income would change not one iota. We would pay less contributions but the smaller states pay more.
We are a richer state than most states in the EU. Redistribute our wealth and you would have one less than happy state (i.e. us) and several smaller very happy states.
It benefits the EU politically to do such. Because Degressive Proportionality, the way in which MEP seats are allocated per state, leaves no question re such. Smaller EU states, population-wise, get more seats than larger states. The shift of wealth to smaller states therefore increases the percentage of MEPs who are happy and hence pro-EU. So there is always a strong incentive to redistribute wealth. Every move of business from us to a poorer state is always in the EU’s best interests whether we are in the EU or out of it.
So tell me again, Ed and Dave, what does Remain actually mean, what would be the terms? By the way, no-one ever told me the above I worked it out for myself from the facts of the way the EU is designed and structured. Its not rocket science.
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If we accept May’s deal or Remain in the EU we are at the mercy of the EU which will cherry pick this country dry. Why would they not do so in their own best interests? Plainly we either could never leave (i.e. May’s Deal) or would never leave (i.e. we Remained) no matter what they did. Tell me, if we chose to Remain what would be the terms of that? There’s no guarantee they would be as now. The chances are we’d be forced either immediately or soon after into the Euro and be in a position like either Greece or Italy. Why would the EU not do that? They would see Sterling joining as a big boost to their weakened currency and a cosh to beat Italy with. As everyone says the EU is doing only what’s in its own best interests, which patently are not always in our best interests in or out of membership.
So tell me lads what does Remain actually mean? Truly lads post what Remain means or would be. Then we can look back after things have panned out. To me its a far greater and more dangerous unknown than simply trading with the EU on the same terms that we currently deal with most of the world including the USA by far our biggest single state trading partner.
As for us becoming a cheap labour house economy if we were outside the EU the reverse is surely true. Remember with May’s deal or Remaining, the EU could take the best of the UK talents and resources for their own because we would have proved we would never leave. We have demonstrated ourselves to be the weakest willed of the 28.
I say again before saying that Remaining is best, please tell me what the Remain terms would be. It seems to me that if we bottle out of leaving absolutely then the EU could make the Remain terms whatever they want – No veto, No rebates and perhaps even Euro membership. “Battered wife, too frightened to leave because doing so would be uncomfortable in the short term”, here we come, remaining for batterings. How can anyone with any experience of life not see that? I find it staggering that so many cannot. We had no real say in Europe when we were fully in but now we would have even less say. Still if folks want a battered future UK for their offspring (and it seems those offspring in general have not enough experience of life to recognise for themselves that May’s deal or remaining would be) then so be it. All I ask is that folks on here stand back, remember their experience of life and look at Macron’s threats re the backstop and fishing then tell me I am wrong.
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I think what got my goat is that Mark Carney said he was not making predictions but looking at scenarios. If that was so he’d have included models of various best scenarios too, but those didn’t get a look in. He looked only at Doom and a little less Doom. No consideration of the trade potential from various countries looking to do trade deals with us asap. America is an example. That country is already our biggest (single state) trading partner and the potential remains massive with a trade deal. The figures are clear that the percentage of our exports going to the EU is markedly falling year on and has been for 30 years despite the growth in the size of the EU (!). World trade growth is all outside the EU. We need to take full advantage of that and we could set up trade deals with countries outside the EU far faster than the EU can because there are too many conflicting interest in the EU that don’t want this deal because of X and don’t want that one because of Y. Boy oh boy is that lesson we are going to be taught us if May’s deal passes. France will veto unless it gets our fish for example. Germany will want more of our Financial services or the EU impose a big financial services tax knowing that such sucks for far more money from us than anyone else. And what of the Euro crash which is inevitable. How many EU states will then have plenty of money to spend buying from us. The writing is on the wall. I truly believe that we sell our children into vassalage unless we leave completely now. Let me ask you all – Who truly believes that if May’s deal passes we won’t end up it in the perpetual and crippling backstop? And for what? May’s deal breaches Good Friday more than a N.I. hard border would. Good Friday says nothing re a hard border. But it does guarantee the right of N.I. to self determination re its relationship with Eire and the UK. May’s deal breaches that. That’s why the DUP are up in arms. I personally think they should have been using their very capable loud voices to stress how May’s deal breaches Good Friday. Then the peoples of the rest of the UK would have realised how the N.I. issue was always a con.
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It’s pointless trying to saying anything against Project Hopeless Optimism. Let’s not forget that there wasn’t a Brexiteer good enough to lead the Conservative Party when the time came. It doesn’t stop them whinging about it now though. A fine piece of democracy that was too, it was a Coronation reached behind closed doors. Just what the EU is accused of by the very same people.
That argument doesn’t hold water. May was elected by a predominantly Remainer party and not by the less number of Eurosceptics MPs. That is why a Remainer (i.e. May) was crowned. No point in any Brexiteer standing because the Remainer MPs would never have let that person onto the last two list for party members to elect. If BoJo had stood then up would have popped another Remainer candidate alongside May and Voila! only those two would have made the last two list.
So the ones who elected May (the Remainer MPs) are NOT the ones who accuse the EU of doing things behind closed doors.
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I class the Bank’s forecast as a lot better than BoJo et als forecast of what we could obtain from all the Brexit negotiations. These negotiations were if you recall led for 95% of the time by ardent Brexiteers such the Brexit Bulldog Davis and the smarmy guy with the foreign name Dominic Raab..
Come on now. You know that May gave Davis and Raab no power and had Olly Robbins negotiating behind their backs. Naturally Davis got nowhere because the EU knew he had no power because May was working through Robbins. And shame on you because surely you know you’ll always get massacred in any negotiation if the other side can see you do not have the courage to walk away.
We had a good enough hand to get a win if played well. Ann Widdecombe and David Mellor have both explained how it could and should have been done. May blew it not the Brexiteers.
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Vassalage is just such a loaded and totally incorrect statement. It’s typical of the language being used however. If that is the only way to promote your argument it just shows how bad it is. ………..
Vassalage is an emotive term but in this case reasonably accurate. Do not confuse it with slavery. The terms have totally different meanings.
I had a chat with two young couples the night before last that had bought into May’s charade. So, OK, they weren’t Remainers, they just wanted Brexit to be finished and stop dominating everything. I asked if they’d take out a mobile contract where the provider network could vary the terms whenever they wanted and at the end of the two year contract they could only leave if the network provider agreed they could. All said “No” they would not. Then I explained May’s back-stop to them. By the end not one was keen on May’s deal.
Then I explained that while the vote on the Withdrawal deal was by qualified majority vote, when it comes to the negotiating trade deal (i.e. the Political Declaration) that was not by QMV. Regarding the trade deal every one of the 27 has a veto. So unless each one gets what they want from the new trade deal there will not be one. Hence, Macron’s threat re fishing. One veto and we are in the back-stop.
Lastly I explained that once in the back-stop the EU has no incentive to agree to us leaving it. Why would they let us leave? They have full access to our markets to which they sell more than buy. Moreover, when they try to negotiate trade deals with other states they will be selling access to an extra 68 million consumers (us) without even having to worry if the trade deal is to our benefit. That sounds like vassalage to me. The penny dropped finally when I said that if we were to redo the referendum and the vote was Remain the EU could still pretty much ignore our opinions because plainly we would never leave no matter what happened. Both couples decided we must Leave and not using May’s deal.
I have to admit I was shocked at the conviction of the converted. Two were very agree at May when they realised the facts. I’m sure it was the phone contract analogy that made them think. Younger folks can relate to that.
By the way have you all noticed how many Economists and Bankers are coming out rubbishing the Government’s forecasts and Carney’s statements?
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The bank of England’s assessment isn’t as healthy looking as yours VFM growth reduction for 8%, 25% hit on the pound plus high inflation. All the good stuff needed for nosediving an economy. One that would take a mirricle to pull up from. Though it will all be pushed aside as project fear, just like the rest was, untill it became project reality. …….
Would that be the same BoE that didn’t see the crash of 2008 coming and the same one that predicted a massive crash immediately after the June 2016 vote which never materialised?
The model they used it seems was the most remote model used to test if the banking system would survive. God even former BoE heads have condemned it as preposterously OTT. Go check. Heck Zombie Movies must scare the hell out of you………LOL
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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