@thevfmaddict
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LOL…Ed….saw that elsewhere and thought how strange she doesn’t realise that its the EU that strips the UK bare.
@Dave
How strange that you seem to think I am making rock solid predictions. My words are simply my opinion. Is it equally true is it not that Remainers make ‘rock solid predictions’ that a No Deal Brexit would be Armageddon.
My own opinions derive in the main from seeing Project Fear myths falling apart all around me at the minute. There’s no exodus of financial institutions. They are advertising more UK jobs than EU jobs. Its the same in high tech. London is still the big draw. Folks say we have more to lose than the EU and that its is us that are not prepared for a No Deal. Yet its the EU businesses that are panicking. It is the CEO of the Irish Exporters Association, Simon McKeever, said that if a No Deal is the outcome, “We are, to put it bluntly, screwed.” Belgium Finance Minister Alexander De Croo meanwhile has revealed that 80% of Belgium companies aren’t prepared for a No Deal outcome. The UK is Belgium’s fourth-largest trading partner. In EU’s own growth forecasts for 2019 they have upgraded us at 1.3% and Germany at 1.1%. Plus Germany will have to bear the brunt of bailing out Eire if it comes to it and domestically can Merkel get support for doing so? These are the realities.
On top of that – It is not me saying the backstop breaches the GFA and EU law, it is top lawyers and the UK architects of the GFA. So tell me, Dave, given such why are the EU so currently dedicated to a backstop they hold will never be used?
Just to lighten the mood by moving sideways a bit, Brexit has shown in full technicolor that our political system in the UK needs dramatic change. About the only thing that you and I might agree on I suspect is that we have a Tory Leader who by trying to ride two horses at one time is destroying and splitting her own party at the exact moment that a Labour Leader is doing the very same to his. While to complicate matters still further Nigel Farage is running with the new Brexit Party that is now recruiting in earnest and which given the 17m Leave voters could well (even if not winning seats) make many more constituencies than is usually the case, marginals.
I say again I can’t call what will happen. But the above are my beliefs and opinions looking at the evidence. Of one thing though I believe there would be no disagreement from any post’er on this thread – We are in the main in this threat living Groundhog Day(s) in these exchanges.
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Not heard any Remainer explain why that isn’t the case WoF. Looks to me awfully like Stockholm syndrome. Having said that the events of late already leave me in no doubts whatsoever that the EU will fail within two or three years. In any event there will be a MASSIVE increase in Eurosceptic MEP’s this time from France, Italy and Germany at the very least. The latest French poll is 40% in favour of Frexit. Hardly surprising as Macron is so toxic and a Europhile. So we will be out in a year or two because there will be nothing to be in.
Looking at the legal situation it seems almost certain that the backstop breaks the GFA and EU law so the more the EU wants to keep it in the WA the more it flaws the whole WA. How ironic that will be for them. Crazy, days, WoF, crazy days.
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Sorry, Bob, I can’t work out which post you are referring to. I can’t see post numbering anywhere on screen can you post my link that you are referring to, please.
As for growth forecasts Carney and BoE just downgraded the UK’s predicted growth rate for the year while at the very same time the EU also published its predictions and upgraded us to 1.3% the same as France, Sweden and the EU average. Germany was down to 1.1% and poor Italy at 0.2%.
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@Dave
I did provide a video link. In the post right below the picture post. I think that establishes that Leo V. found it funny.
@Ed
I’ve not been changing subjects as such. I’m happy to continue any of the avenues of discussion that were opened. Which one do you think I’ve retreated from? And I think I answered the matters that you raised such as NZ and Oz being in a mini-EU or why EU legislation does often get rubber stamped with less scrutiny that home grown legislation. Do you now concede that or are you retreating from those matters?
I find it rascinating that folks seem to suggest I am intransigent when at the same time refusing to shift their positions one iota. Accepting May’s deal provided that the backstop is removed is a massive concession by we Brexiteers. So are you willing to meet us there or are you intransigent that Brexit is madness and only Remain will satisfy you?
Must mention this – I am not attempting to change the subject by doing so. I’d just like Remainers to read this piece from Alex Morton, a former member of David Cameron’s policy unit, and share their thoughts having done so. He articulates the key issues right now re sovereignty far, far better than I ever have or could.
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I note that Corbyn has written to the PM demanding a UK-wide customs union, close alignment with the single market, “dynamic alignment” on rights and protections, “clear commitments” on participation in EU agencies and funding programmes and “unambiguous agreements” on the detail of future security arrangements. That’s BRINO in reality leaving us with just about where we were with a ‘Frankenstein Empire’, his words not mine, which for so many decades he has held to be an empire totally against the man in the street’s best interests.
How does the old rhyme go – ‘The working class can kiss my rr’s, I’ve got the foreman’s job at last’. Seems about right to me given his seismic shift. The once highly Principled Politician is showing he is merely the latter of that class of individual. Oh for the likes of Lord Carrington and I don’t care which party such an individual stood for s/he would get my vote. We need politicians of enduring conviction to again come forward not, as recent events have shown, convicted politicians.
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I do not skirt the fact, Ed. I’ve posted regarding it several times above. The backstop that the EU and Eire demand breaches the GFA. That is why Lord Trimble and several others who were architects of it are taking it to law by route of seeking a judicial review. Also Herbert Smith Freehills one of the most respected international law firm say it does.
So, Ed, who is it taking us towards breaching that which has maintained the peace? I reject the idea that it is us because we want to Brexit. Brexit alone does not breach the GFA. It is the backstop that does. And it breaches EU law as it is something which only occurs after we have left. Therefore under EU law it cannot be agreed until after we have left. Here’s the link again to what Herbert Smith Freehills hold the position to be. And this leaves no doubts these are a top notch highly respected law firm.
If the EU bin that backstop and trust that we won’t set up a hard border because we are the one’s who will get bombed if we do then we, the EU and especially Eire have a deal. While there are things such as this card (which Junker had no obligation to in effect publish) suggesting that we consider such things as bombings merely be a ‘nuisance’ the EU states will never recognise that it is us that have by far the most incentive not to force a hard border or reignite the troubles. There is no need for a gun to one’s head backstop in order to avoid a hard border. We would not leave that arrangement until sure we could without there being a need for a hard border. The incentive of avoiding a pound of semtex in our high streets and shopping malls is more than enough, isn’t it?
Bin the ball and chain backstop and make it consensual and the WA deal goes through. It really is as ‘kin simple as that. Then neither the GFA nor EU law are breached by it either.
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Here a bit about ‘that card’ on youtube.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I’m sharing the below because it may not get that much coverage in the mainstream media. The BBC I doubt will even mention it. Take a look at this –
What does Leo find so funny?
Here’s the text that is inside the card shared on twitter by Bruno Waterfield of The Times –
The deaths of our squaddies who died in Ulster during the troubles; the bombings in Guildford, Aldershot, Birmingham and the Tory Party Conference; the assassination bombings of Mountbatten and Airey Neave and other atrocities on the UK mainland and in N.I. we apparently think of as just ‘nuisances’. OK it’s an ill-informed young Irish person writing but Leo Vileradkar and Drunker think that’s its funny – all at the same time that the RAF defends Vileradkar’s airspace because Eire has no Air Force.
I left out personal thing. The Harrod’s bombing. I wasn’t that far away from it and had been heading to Harrod’s for some Christmas shopping in ’83. I certainly didn’t think all that was just a ‘nuisance’. I’m real glad that Vileradkar thinks it funny. Real ‘kin glad !!!!!!!
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
“Also if you are a Remainer then by definition you are not in favour of the UK having a firm border status like Oz does.” You seem to think everything is black and white. It isn’t. . . .
It is also untrue – Kiwis can go into OZ, work and collect benefit (and vice versa). They effectively have a mini-EU! Allen in your follow-up post you did not add that many UK only laws are only outlined in parliament – the full detail is undemocratically (but quite practically) put together by appointed (unelected) bodies such as Accountants or the CAA. I really see no practical difference between our regulators and those of the EU.
Taking your two parts in turn I’m not sure I agree with your mini-EU analogy. Unless you consider that prior to both our memberships of the EU we had a “mini-EU” with Eire because freedom of movement and benefits with Eire far predates EU membership.
Moving to your second point I think you forget or are unaware of the involvement and scrutiny of Commons Select Committees. Again its a case of workload. Most UK legislation is at some point scrutinised by a committee tasked closely to the work of a specific Ministry or an ad-hoc committee set up for that particular piece of UK legislation. Hence there is quite a degree of detailed Parliamentary scrutiny. However, as regards scrutiny of EU legislation it all goes through a single committee. I certainly would not allege intentional bias because it is the Chair of a Committee that holds sway there and at least currently the Chair of the European Scrutiny Committee is Bill Cash. However, that committee’s workload is astounding. About 1,100 EU documents go through that single committee per parliamentary session . Just compare that to the number of UK Acts (i.e. Primary Legislation) and Statutory Instruments that need scrutiny during a parliamentary session and remember that those are spread across numerous Committees. There simply is no comparison. Comparing the volume of EU to UK legislation is like comparing normal tide to a Tsunami. So I think that it is true to say that much EU legislation, for purely practical reasons, gets nowhere near the scrutiny of UK legislation and to a large degree is just rubber stamped without anywhere near the consideration that UK Acts and S.I.’s get.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
“Also if you are a Remainer then by definition you are not in favour of the UK having a firm border status like Oz does.” You seem to think everything is black and white. It isn’t. It’s quite possible to have an issue with parts of an institution and still think the rough is over taken by the smooth. It explains why you keep telling us what we think.
Far from it. Dave. Anyone who knows me would tell you that if anything I am inclined to see everything in too many shades of grey. Far too many. You will often find me picking through Acts of Parliament and spotting ambiguities where others usually judges and lawyers see things as black and white.
You are correct that most things must be considered on balance or as you term it comparing the rough with the smooth. However, having adopted a position one must take ownership for the consequences of a decision. I note the sentence you quoted from one of my posts. Let me rephrase it such as to make its meaning clear for you – “Also if you are a Remainer then by definition you have or are willing to vote for the UK not having a firm border status like Oz does.” That’s what I mean by ownership, Dave. In law it is called Indirect or Oblique intent. If the consequences of your actions are both foreseeable and close to inevitable, and even if such an outcome was your desire, that the outcome was foreseeable and close to inevitable it is deemed you intended that outcome. I’m not sure if I explained that such that it makes sense. Let me give you the classic example.
A man places a bomb on a freight plane in order to secure an insurance payout for his goods in transit. He purpose is not to kill the aircrew and indeed he might hope and wholly desire that they survive. However, as the foreseeable and close to inevitable outcome was their deaths it is considered that in undertaking the act he intended (albeit indirectly or obliquely) to kill them. The charge is murder.
You, yes, Dave, as voting Remain means foreseeably and inevitably unlimited freedom of movement then in my eyes voters for Remain intended that outcome. Is my position clear now.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Nice link, Duke. But the ‘get out’ re almost all of them as regards individual member states being sovereign, is that EU states are often within that EU legislation given the ability to diverge somewhat from the core dicta of the EU legislation using local legislation. That is entirely true. Divergence is often allowed in the EU legislation. However, the devil is both in the detail aided and abetted by Old Father Time.
The EU produces such volume of often complex legislation that local states simply do not have the time for the local legislature to develop, debate and enshrine in local laws divergence. I suggest that at some point you consider a significant piece of UK Legislation, pick any Act you want, and then compare it to EU legislation. A good example is the Data Protection Act 1998. Compare that to the mammoth GDPR which the DPA 2018 adopted. Think a Newspapers versus War and Peace. The default position therefore becomes as with the DPA 2018 (i.e. the local legislation) to simply adopt in full the EU legislation (as with the GDPR). Such is not unusual. Significant variance all though legally possible is simply not possible in the time available. Christ, our own Governments rarely have enough time to get all their own intended legislation through the House without having to consider all EU legislation. This is one of the reasons that the EU is essentially non-democratic and why sovereignty is effectively and for practical reasons lost by membership. Put differently we are often ruled by laws that our own Parliament has never and will never have the time to fully consider and debate.
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@Bob
I think you actually said you now wish you had gone to Oz which suggests that today’s circumstances would impact the decision you once made. Also if you are a Remainer then by definition you are not in favour of the UK having a firm border status like Oz does. So, yes, your words do “appear to be in against such a firm stance in the UK.” Certainly not as firm as Oz.
Hold on matey to the argument you lodge re Oz being racially mixed. We do not disagree. But its treatment of the Aborigines shows a racist thread as bad as that we saw in the UK in the past. The reality is that both us and Oz have moved on. The UK and Oz are both today highly racially mixed and tolerant. The point that I was making but perhaps did not pad it out enough was that Oz feels that it has sufficient immigrants at present, even though, I might add, it has many, many times the free capacity, geographically, that we do. Had you moved to Oz you would be in a state today wishing to control its influx of immigrants extremely robustly. That is true, is it not? Yet here in the UK you appear to be a Remainer and Remaining would not give us the ability to control our influx of immigrants robustly. That is true is it not?
I have stressed here time and time again that I suspect I had an upbringing as racially diverse as anyone, probably far more so than most on this forum. London was and remains the most racially diverse city in the UK. I very nearly married an Indian Hindu in my youth and the reason I did not had nothing to do with race. It was my fault because I was still, albeit in my mid-twenties, adolescent with a roaming eye and roaming other parts of my anatomy. So, matey, you can bet that my problem with immigration is nothing to do with racism. It is merely to do with volume and speed of influx. We simply do not have the infrastructure, housing, social services, etc., to cope with the numbers that arrive no matter where they come from. Where they come from also warrants consideration. We are obliged by membership to allow EU nationals to pretty much walk in. That volume means we have no option but to limit influx from India, the Philippines, the West Indies, etc. You might call the EU institutionally racist on that basis. I myself do not differentiate between immigrants by nationality but EU dynamic do. OK !!!
I can see that you simply took my words the wrong way. Therefore I will not take offence at you accusing me of being in favour of “immigrant drowning” which nothing in my posts suggested. I would never condone such in a million years. Well…maybe if Tusk, Junker and Verhofstat or whatever his name is were trying to slip across the channel in a dinghy then I would be sorely tempted to make an exception for them………LOL
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Duke, I posted while you were posting. A legal issue has just hit the fan. The backstop looks to be unlawful under EU law. See my post just before yours.
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I am so annoyed with myself that I didn’t spot long ago what has just been noticed by lawyers. Its blooming obvious. Under Art.50 the EU cannot make arrangements regarding trade with a leaving EU country until it has left the EU. Under May’s WA with the backstop that backstop only comes into play after the end of the transition period. That is to say after we have totally left the EU. So in signing up to it before we have left the EU the EU would be in breach of EU law because it has no entitlement under Art.50 to commit to such before we have left..
Overview and skeleton arguments re such here. Its a short but very interesting piece.
BTW Herbert Smith Freehills who are arguing this are highly respect top tier lawyers. See here.
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Just spoke in the corner shop with a Pole that I’ve known for the best part of 10 years. He knows the British mentality well by now, obviously. He thinks Tusk is a total idiot if he doesn’t realise that his comments today will only harden Brexiteers and may even make a few Remainers become “pissed off” with the EU. The term “pissed off” was his not mine.
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The problem is March 29th but I cannot see how anything can be sorted by then. Forget the cliff edge, no reasonable Government could ever inflict that damage to their country – I’m not going to argue that point any more. Anyone who thinks it won’t isn’t going to listen to anything.
I think we would disagree though which ‘Government’ would be inflicting it on us. I’ve argued time and again that it is the UK not Eire not the EU that will bear the pain if the Troubles reignite in N.I. or on the UK mainland. WE have the greatest incentive not to have a hard border. We do not need to be threatened with the backstop to incentivise us.
I simply cannot see the logic in the EU sticking to the backstop. Doing so will make a No Deal Brexit more likely (perhaps inevitable). So what good is the backstop then? It seems to me it is the EU holding a gun to both our and its head but worst of all to Eire’s head because they get hit hardest of all by a No Deal. EU politicians are already threatening to kick Eire out of the customs union if it doesn’t enforce a hard border in the event of a No Deal. Can you really not see who are the bullies here. Yet they say they are doing so in major part because of a commitment to its member, Eire, and to the GFA. Their backstop violates the GFA as I’m certain the judicial review Lord Trimble and other architects of the GFA are seeking.
Frankly as a Brexiteer I’m rather spend eternity in that ‘special place in hell’ Tusk is now talking about that ever submit to the bullying of the EU Commission Elite. I think the true face of the EU will become visible if we No Deal from the way it will treat Eire. When that happens? Who do you think will be there for them? I’d tell you but I think you know.
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Talk about the PM not listening or losing the plot.. May now says in N.I. in response to a press question that when she goes to Brussels she is not looking to have the backstop removed just merely amended. Christ !!! The Graham Brady amendment which she had whipped last week and which passed, that is to say the very mandate that she has to revisit Brussels, required an ‘alternative’ to the backstop being put in place. Talk about losing the plot.
Turning May’s style of reasoning against her can I state clearly that I don’t want her removed from office I merely want an alternative PM put in place. Hands up (from either side of the Brexit divide) those that agree that May is more part of the problem than part of the solution.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Interesting that you suggest Oz, Bob, given that it now has close to a sink on sight policy re illegal immigrants and is totally against freedom of movement on economic grounds. Heck if it had the open door policy we have had the last decade half of South East Asia would be living in Sydney by now. Yet you appear to be in against such a firm stance in the UK. Frankly if we were more like Oz we wouldn’t be where we are today I strongly suspect. I can’t see Oz willing to trade even one iota of its sovereignty. None of the trade blocs it is in have the political ambitions (i.e. single currency, freedom of movement, commitment to a common army, etc.). Can you really not see that it is the political ambitions of the EU that cause our problems here today. And of course when we joined those long term political ambitions which our politicians were aware of were kept from us by them. That is the cause of where we are today. If you are fed up with the UK in essence it is those deceitful individuals and Major at a letter point who committed us without our say so that are more to blame than anyone today. Major by threats to his party put a sticking plaster over a boil that in reality needed lancing and sorting there and then before the toxins spread through the whole body such that sorting them out causes what we see today. A Ref back then no matter whether the decision was to join or not would have created a mandate that would endure today. With no original mandate where we are today was inevitable.
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Yes, I’m aware of the Vat fraud but to some degree that’s the way it is now because we have different Vat rates anyway. The BMW & VAG line was lighthearted.
I think shifting things down the road is about to end. If she delays Brexit by extending Art.50 things will kick-off unless there a firm end point such as another Ref or a GE. Labour are down in the polls, split on Brexit themselves to some degree, Starmer and Corbyn have internally different opinions re membership and ‘that video’ will sure as hell make a lot of younger voters lose trust in him. I actually think the Tories could trounce Labour right now and, as much as I dread it, May could do what she wants re a deal with the DUP losing significance. The only unknown though is if the currently severely disgruntled local Con Assoc’s will deselect Remain MPs big time. I doubt they will.
For May the big plus is that she said she’d stand-down before “the 2022 election”. Go for a snappie now and if she wins big she’s a hero with the Parliamentary Con Party and gets to stays in post longer. I think that, as she is rapidly heading for the rocks personally anyway she may well take the gamble to save herself and her deal. If she does then there’s one thing I’m sure of and that is that it will be the most ‘gloves off dirty’ campaign we have ever seen.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Nah…… We’re getting to the bit where one side or the other comes running out like at the end of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid and gets shot to pieces. We’re just not sure which side it will be yet………..LOL
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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