@thevfmaddict
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Just read a report here on the BBC. Jack Allen, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, told the BBC;
“US tariffs on EU car exports, which US President Donald Trump has threatened, could have a major impact on Germany, Mr Allen said, but even if these are avoided the slowdown in the global economy means Germany is still only expected to grow by about 1% this year, compared with about 1.5% in 2018.”
Now consider. The difference in German car exports to the USA and to the UK is very little; the USA 26.9 billion euros and the UK 25 billion euros.
It follows that if USA tariffs could have a major impact on Germany it is hard to argue that post Brexit tariffs in the case of No Deal would not also have a major impact on the German economy. This is surely the kind of thing Soros was warning of. If the EU sticks ideologically and dogmatically to the hard backstop resulting in a No Deal Brexit then the most dominant state in the EU; the very state which so often props up the EU financially, is going to get hammered. The type of thing Soros was inherently warning would lead to EU collapse. If dogma comes first in the EU then doom is inevitable. No least in that if dogma damages the German economy and loses 100,000 jobs then the likes of the AfD will have an easy job growing in strength.
I believe we will find out soon whether the Eurocrats of Brussels or Angela Merkel hold the real power in the EU. Because there is about to be a BIG clash of dogma versus pragmatism and that pretty much will be the only deciding factor of whether the hard backstop is softened or dropped.
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Hot off the press – The German economy dipped by -0.2% in the third quarter of 2018, and flatlined at 0.0% by the end of the year.
Responding to your post specifically though – We Leavers look at the proven 35 years trend of economic decline in the EU; the fact that there is no sign of it reversing; the fact that we are doing better than Germany; and to numerous other failings of the EU and end up concluding just much as you think that emigration from the UK might be best, that the UK emigrating from the failing EU bloc is best. I refer again to the Soros article as it was clear in his piece that he was not wholly convinced that the EU would )or could) change course to avoid its collapse. I personally prefer to be outside a house when it structurally fails and falls down.
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I think you missed half of the point, Ed. It was more about the past proven record of the EU. Since 2009 the EU has been failing. I’ll quote it again;
“Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.”
Let that comparison sink in. Indeed, the reality is that the EEC/EU share of world trade has been falling for around 35 years. With no sign it will improve. The EU is simply not delivering what it says on the tin. Its one size fits all approach does not allow states to leverage their own talents, skills and opportunities. For example, Italy is being hampered from taking the steps it needs to to appropriately steer its own economy. I think Soros was really trying to say that the overly ferocious commitment to an ideology of the EU bureaucrats is not dissimilar from the USSR. He was not saying that the ideology was the same.
If you re-read his article he is clearly saying that in the main emphasis must return to that primarily of a trading bloc. He was not saying bin all of the rest of the EU’s objectives rather it is to say get the horse before the cart or the EU is stuffed. I don’t agree with him in that I think many of the other objectives of the EU are also flawed but I do understand where he was coming from and why he is saying it. The EU’s economic trends of 35 years and the massive current rise of eurosceptism across the bloc mimics the trend of economic decline and growing dissatisfaction of the populous in the USSR that led to its collapse.
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For those who keep telling me that the EU cannot fail and that its a project that will succeed then perhaps I should not just quote Soros. How’s about the mighty Wall Street Journal’s opinion? Here’s what they say verbitim, including headline and sub-heading.
Incredible Shrinking Europe
The Continent’s grand unity project is failing, and its global influence is fading.Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs. As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.
More here.
Just take that in. Economic output lower in 2017 than in 2009 while the other major engines of the world economy have grown and grown. This is what a lot of us have been saying over and over. The EU project has not allowed Europe to increase its share of world trade. Its been in decline for 30 years and if anything that decline is accelerating. The UK still, for many reasons, has influence in the world. True its not as much as it once was. But to my mind we must work with that rather than be seen just as one part of a failing bloc.
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Soros actually started all the immigrant mess in the EU. He formulated a deliberate plan to flood the EU with Middle East migrants. One link of many possible ones. As a result I would not believe a word the man says – he has a CIA destabilising agenda.
Had to chuckle a bit re the link you posted. Had I posted a Breitbart link I do not doubt I would have been jumped all over. Although a Brexiteer, even I usually take Breitbart stories with a pinch of salt or at the very least allow for heavy editorial bias. That said now specifically to Soros.
I am aware of Soros’s background and activities. Its because of such his recent articles are of considerable import. Let me explain.
Soros is hugely in favour of WIDE OPEN Borders. He wants the Freedom of Movement that the EU brings and the migrant inflow on the scale Merkel has accepted for Germany to continue. The very last thing Soros wants is countries returning towards traditional nation states and restricting migrant inflow or leaving Schengen. I assume you agree with that. Now lets consider what that means.
His recent words, far from bolstering the EU’s strength do the exact reverse and give eurosceptics across the entire EU even more ammunition by holding that the EU hierarchy are ideologically obsessed out of self interest and often rule arbitrarily. It follows from all of such that his words can only possibly be meant by him to wake up the pro-EU community and, in the simplest of forms, SHOUT at it to sort things out PDQ or the EU is going to go the way of the Soviet Union.
In essence he is seeing what is happening across the EU with eurosceptism growing very rapidly and that growth being supported by and spurred on by the young (only the UK have a heavily pro-EU youth). Soros sees that MASSIVE change is needed in the EU pretty much immediately or the writing is on the wall. He seeks to get that message out to those who want the EU to survive. However, if you read his recent article, one can discern that he is not entirely certain that the EU will change. Perhaps that’s why he feels the need to shout the warning so very loudly.
It is not just me that interprets the Soros article in such fashion. The Independent read Soros exactly as I do. So do The Guardian. Both sources that are very pro-EU I think you’ll agree.
If you, Ed and Duke seek to read Soros differently from The Independent, The Guardian and me, as you appear to desire to do, then that is your prerogative; and I would follow Voltaire’s rule regarding that if you chose to.
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A very interesting piece here from George Soros.
He states unequivocally that Germany is the Dominant state in the EU. He accepts that the political battles are no longer left v right but pro v anti EU. He accepts that the EU could go the way of the old Soviet Bloc and collapse as that did in 1991.
What struck me most is that he clearly agrees with what many of us who are anti-EU have been saying. That being that the current EU hierarchy are effectively fanatics. Soros writes;
‘It is difficult to see how the pro-European parties can emerge victorious from the election in May unless they put Europe’s interests ahead of their own. One can still make a case for preserving the EU in order radically to reinvent it. But that would require a change of heart in the EU. The current leadership is reminiscent of the politburo when the Soviet Union collapsed – continuing to issue ukazes as if they were still relevant.’
For clarity, the word ukaze has entered the English language with the meaning of “any proclamation or decree; an order or regulation of a final or arbitrary nature”. For those unfamiliar with UK law; the UK Gov. and public authorities are not permitted to make arbitrary decisions, such are held to be unlawful. So it is clear that as a member of the EU we are vulnerable to arbitrary decisions and lose the protection that we have under UK law from arbitrary rule.
Perhaps if Soros can admit all of such then Remainers here will also accept that Brexiteers are not talking nonsense and have many valid arguments. Let’s hope the fanatics currently in EU power realise that by insisting on a fixed and biased backstop they are working contrary to the EU’s best interests in that a No Deal will place such financial and political burdens on the EU, especially Germany, that could be catastrophic. Having to financially bail out Eire in the case of No Deal could not inconceivably be the straw that politically and financially breaks to EU back.
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Plainly ‘close to’ is not the same as remaining in, is it?
No but it is one hell of a lot more accurate than saying that those votes should be counted as ‘leave’! Perhaps I should now stop tarring this Government as a bunch of inept Greylings. Even the Daily Express cannot gloss over the fact that the Department of Transport is being sued over the secretive way Greyling awarded the contract to the mysterious Seaborne freight Company. I’m afraid May cannot protect her friend very much longer – he has to go.
Ed, as I stressed in my post and proved by reference to their Manifesto Labour stood on a Leave the CU and SM platform. It is true they said that they would strive to keep the ‘benefits of’ such, but that was what the Brexit camp’s stated objective was also. You find it difficult, do you not, to accept the reality that 85% of the electorate voted in the 2017 GE for parties that were declaring they would leave the CU & SM, don’t you, even though its a fact.
Let me state one thing clearly – I am not demanding a No Deal Brexit; unlike some. I am willing to compromise. May’s WA either with no backstop or a time limited backstop I believe is the best compromise for all. Yet the EU, are in demanding a fixed backstop, something that is unacceptable to Parliament, forcing a No Deal which quite clearly has no backstop. Aren’t the EU shooting themselves in the foot and gambling with Eire’s prosperity in that No Deal will slaughter entirely the Irish economy. To coin a phrase, “Surely a softer backstop is better than No backstop at all.” That’s the message the PM should take to the EU next week.
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Following on from the above and to show Corbyn for his real self –
It wasn’t just in 2009 during the Irish Referendums that he was slagging off the EU. As recently as 2010 he was calling ferociously for the EU to be defeated. Have a listen for yourself. The video is here. So you can listen to him saying;
“They, the world’s bankers, International Monetary Fund, European Union, they are utterly united in what they want. Utterly united in deflation, suppressing the economy, and creating unemployment. Utterly united in that.”
“We will not be silenced by these people. We will win through. We will defeat them”
I guess he should have added – “but I could be silenced if I thought it might get me a stint at No.10″.
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Where did you obtain your facts? I cannot get even close to your quoted 85% figure. It must be another load of lies from Brexit HQ. This was the Labour manifesto in 2017. It’s attitude to a Hard Brexit is very clear: ““Labour recognises that leaving the EU with ‘no deal’ is the worst possible deal for Britain and that it would do damage to our economy and trade. We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option and if needs be negotiate transitional arrangements to avoid a ‘cliff-edge’ for the UK economy.“” “Labour is making a priority of retaining arrangements close to the status quo with the Single Market and Customs Union.”
What I said was 85% of voters voted for a party saying we would leave the CU & SM and that is factually 100% correct. Go check what I said if you disagree. I assume from your last sentence that you do agree with that premise. Plainly ‘close to’ is not the same as remaining in, is it?
The Labour Party Manifesto talked merely of retaining the ‘benefits of’ both the Cu and SM which frankly is no different from what the Leave lobby had said.
However, elsewhere in the Manifesto is irrefutable evidence that Labour were committing to leaving the CU and SM. The Manifesto includes this:
‘Labour will champion the export interests of SMEs, ensuring all new trade agreements include a commitment to support their market access needs.’
We, the UK could not commit to any trade agreements ourselves if we were still in the CU. Equally there is no way we could unilaterally ‘ensure’ that EU trade agreements included anything, let alone a commitment for our SMEs. Quite plainly Labour was talking of setting up trade agreements itself, which can only mean we would not be in the CU.
Now let’s consider the SM. The SM requires freedom of movement and identical EU citizens’ rights no matter the state they reside in. However, the Labour Manifesto, included:
‘A Labour government will immediately guarantee existing rights for all EU nationals living in Britain and secure reciprocal rights for UK citizens who have chosen to make their lives in EU countries.’
Plainly Labour were saying we would not be in the SM after Brexit because if we would remain in it then there would be no need for this sentence or commitment. Within the SM such would be automatic, no need to ‘secure’ anything. So plainly Labour were talking of being out of the SM.
So there you have it. Both Labour and Tory were saying we would be out of the CU and SM – and – 85% of those who voted in the 2017 GE voted for those parties.
BTW way I hope you will agree now that what I said was not ‘a load of lies’. I know all of the above because I’ve read the Labour 2017 Manifesto several times. As with all of what Corbyn has said re Brexit its a load of double speak meant to confuse and mislead and plainly he managed it with you in that Manifesto.
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BRINO as the Hard Brexiteers derisively call it actually yields everything the British Public voted for. You can only prove that it does not by quoting the paragraph in the non-existent Brexit Referendum Manifesto!
You are correct Ed but only provided we are not in a Customs Union or the Single Market.
That’s because the two major parties clarified what Leave meant by saying during the 2017 GE that they would honour the Ref result and leave the CU & SM. In 2017 85% of the electorate voted for parties that pledged such. That’s some overwhelming mandate is it not?
So BRINO only fulfills what voters voted for in 2016 confirming such in 2017 if it means we don’t end up in a CU or the SM.
On another theme – the Europe wide theme of growing dissatisfaction with the EU – a recent poll in Norway showed that 66% of their electorate do not want to join the EU. But at the same time, as Bloomberg report, anti-EEA sentiment is also rapidly growing. There is a desire to bin the EEA and go for a free trade and co-operation treaty instead. As I keep saying the EU is under siege in every direction. Latest predictions are also that a third of MEP seats are likely to go to Eurosceptic parties in the May elections. If Brexit is delayed and we have to elect new MEPs I’ll bet more than a third of those will be Eurosceptic, probably around 52%……LOL.
Oh dear, that’s another load of folks about to be consigned to Hell by Tusk I suspect. I reckon, Lucifer, is going to be faced with a housing crisis pretty soon at this rate.
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Me thinks that a lot of the public simply followed the age old and reliable rule – See what the majority of politicians want and pick the reverse. Fortunately, for us Brexiteers the current crop in Parliament and all ex-PM’s who are trying to put their oars in haven’t worked out that that’s the rule. All tongue in cheek of course (Errrmmm…….probably….LOL).
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Back on Thread
Well the cracks are really staring to show in the EU. Italy has not merely had enough of the EU seeking to impose fiscal controls on it, it is also seeking some autonomy re trade deals.
The Telegraph today reports that Italy is drawing up emergency plans to safeguard financial stability and keep trade with the UK flowing even if there is a No-deal Brexit, if necessary through a bilateral deal between Rome and London.
The country’s insurgent Lega-Five Star coalition is increasingly worried that a mishandling of the EU’s Brexit crisis could push Italy’s fragile economy into a dangerous downward slide and risk a funding crisis for its sovereign debt at a treacherous moment.
Well these Italian guys really know how to p the EU commission off, don’t they? I guess Tusk will book their reservation in Hell for them too.
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Funny you mention the Polish community. My Great Aunt, a Londoner, married a lorry driver from Bristol and they lived there. We visited them every now and then. One of their neighbours was Polish and had been a WW2 RAF Fighter Pilot. I never got to speak to him but saw him a couple of times. He walked with a limp and I was told he had broken a leg very badly when he had had to bail out. As a young lad in the 1950’s it was quite something to see a ‘Real WW2 Fighter Pilot’ and one who had had to ‘Hit the Silk’. It was all so like the WW2 movies that were about in those days.
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At a tangent and totally off thread the ‘West Country’ lost much of its appeal to me seven or eight years ago. I had reason to be in Bristol, its outlying hamlets and then over to Clevedon all for the first time is several decades. I was shocked. I heard not one of the West Country accents I recall from my childhood and teen years when I was often in Bristol because we had relatives there. Not hearing that accent once left me feeling something was missing that I had expected on the trip. Perhaps TV and the Net (i.e. youtube, etc.) have had a more severe suppressing effect on accent in your part of the world than they have in the Midlands and up North. Or maybe its too many South East types moving your way when retiring or others buying second homes there. It all left me quite sad.
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I had an interesting discussion in the pub at lunch time that brought to my mind something I knew but hadn’t really considered the consequences of. Let us assume we don’t end up with a No Deal Brexit but end up with May’s WA or some other fudged agreement. What then happens over the next two years? The WA just concerns withdrawal and the really big battles on trading commence. How p’d off will Joe Public become during that period? More ‘nothing but Brexit’ in the news and inevitably more concessions asnd some folks feeling the £39B was given away for nothing. How many folks will begin to think ‘sod it we should have just left No Deal’ for one or more of those reasons? I had forgotten this. But Bobby (an Ambulance Driver in his thirties who is a Remainer) argued that even the WA with a soft backstop, as he sees it, will still lead to the rise of another big New Brexit party for that very reason; which is not something I had given much thought to. He may be right. Perhaps it will be ‘Battle Brexit’ for the rest of our lives.
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I understand where you are coming from, Ed, but that means a Customs Union which in turn means a Brexit Party resurgence on an even bigger scale than 2015 UKIP and then we will be well and truly into Groundhog Day.
I truly, quite apart from by personal belief in Brexit, find that entirely objectively I can see nothing that will prevent even more division in the country and perpetual ‘Battle Brexit’ for years to come, other than – (i) a suck it and see No Deal Brexit – or – (ii) a WA with softer backstop. I can no longer see a Cooper style amendment passing in the house because many Tory and Labour MPs will fear the rise of UKIP2.
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Oh…. I forgot. The EU position is that the WA cannot be altered. Corbyn’s position seems to be that he will support the WA if the UK commitment is different from that in the WA. Yet Tusk and Verhofstadt welcome Corbyn’s proposals – while also saying the WA is the only and best deal for everyone. Can anyone explain that contradiction? I think I can. Corbyn’s plan locks us into the Customs Union voluntarily so the EU plan to lock us in manipulatively against our will via the backstop is no longer needed. That says it all to me (note I said me). You may see it differently.
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Frankly, Ed, I think its far too late to avoid a melt down in either of the two main parties. A total realignment of political divides has occurred. No more Right and Left as such for the present and foreseeable. Its Brexit v No Brexit and perhaps even full Brexit v BRINO. Hoey and Field voting with the Tories, Galloway thinking of aligning with Farage shows how far things have moved. And, yes, Tories are saying that May should align with Corbyn just as you suggested. Even around this site folks who in a million years would never have voted Labour are looking like they would do so to stop or soften Brexit. I’m simply not sure either of the two big parties can survive. Heck, even 32% of Liberals voted Leave as did a fair chunk of SNP voters (those perhaps who want total independence?).
You are therefore I suspect right about Tory meltdown. The Tory MPs have diametrically opposed intent and direction from local Con. Assoc’s. And even those groupings subdivide fiercely with many senior Tories saying the Art.50 deadline must be delayed while others say it would lead to electoral slaughter in the May local elections if it was delayed. I’m suspect it would once the new Brexit Party were fed into the equation given the high percentage of Tory voters who would vote for them as a protest at BRINO,
May truly has hardly nowhere to go. She failed to take a firm stance at the start seeking to weld her two factions with each other and the two electoral factions (Leave & Remainers) with each other; in doing so, we all agree, she ended up pleasing no-one.
Buying in on the Labour offer such as to carry her deal through is not the solution it was for Heath in 1972. First off the DUP may well pull their Confidence and Supply Support. Heath didn’t face such, Moreover doing a Labour deal may split the Tory Party this time in that passions are far higher than in ’72. But we can discard that it might either way. Surely the bigger threat to the Tories short and mid-term would be that we would remain in ‘the’ or ‘a’ customs union and we would then then be back to 2015 with the potential for the new Brexit Party being far bigger than the potential UKIP ever had. Now most of the 17M Leave voters have absolutely nailed their colours to the Brexit during the last two years. Remember UKIP only ever reached 4M voters. I suspect that if we stayed in the Customs Union that figure could at the very least be doubled by the Brexit Party. A deal with Labour would, I am personally certain (only my personal opinion) be toxic in the extreme for the Tory party for that reason more than of any internal Tory rifts. I simply do not see May going for it but who knows.
Lastly, to look at critical dynamics, will Farage throwing down the gauntlet very hard make a lot of Tories shy about backing a Cooper amendment this coming week or the one after? I suspect it just might. And with that gone the EU I personally believe would blink because not until its gone will the EU will think of No Deal as anything other than a impotent bluff. Its going to be an interesting couple of weeks, isn’t it?
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Not sure what folks around here’s views are re ‘Gorgeous George’ Galloway. Some may see him as a far left extremist. But I was reminded last night of how bizarre are these times and how alliances that would once have been unimaginable have formed due to Brexit.
Galloway declared on his talkRadio show that provided that Farage’s new Brexit Party was a one issue party (i.e. Brexit) he would support it and even be prepared to stand as a candidate. Who could ever have once imagined Farage and Galloway in the same party? Although I can hear some already saying that both are “Self publicising Opportunists”.
However, there is a huge dynamic of such a possible alliance that simply cannot be discarded. GG led a convoy of relief into Gaza. He is markedly pro-Palestinian. With him onboard accusations of the new Brexit Party being Islamofobic could be disarmed instantly and would complete the distancing of Farage and the new Brexit party from UKIP and its current move in that direction under Batten’s stewardship.
If I was Farage I’d welcome GG potentially coming onboard with open arms.
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@ricedg, its even more astonishing when the remain predictions have historical data to back them up. But the leave have nothing to back there predictions of a great UK triumph. They seem to fall back to the EU will collapse, and it seems they wish that true. No matter the fall out that is likely bring.
Best one I’ve heard so far. Can you point me to the historical data of what happens when a major economy leaves the EU. Don’t know what we’ve all been disagreeing with if such data exists. Still all the experts predicted we would be in deep recession rapidly after the Leave vote even before we actually left. Yet here we are today with the EU just having upgraded its own forecast for UK growth this year and putting us equal with France, Sweden and the EU average all ahead of Germany that is languishing. If ‘predictions’ were accurate and things were ‘predictable’ there would be no financial markets as there are today, would there?
No, matey, we are not falling back on the EU collapsing. Its equally just a prediction also. But is one looks at the North-South financial divides; the East-West Political Divides; the EU Ideology-Business Objectives Divides; and the rapidly growing dissatisfaction of EU populations with the EU in most EU states, its a prediction that is far from without arguable indicators. The German electorate was especially is highly disgruntled with having to have been the piggy bank raided re the bailouts of other states and Merkel’s open door policy. That why AfD has grown. With us gone and the need, if its a No Deal, for a MASSIVE bail out of Eire how strong could their base become? What of Italy also? Plus its looking like another Greece bailout will be needed.
I remain wedded to the Trading Bloc concept. But it is the Euro and Political Project that are causing the problems that are increasingly visible. I ask is the EU capable of serious reform when those in power within the EU are not listening to the populations of its member states. Not just us but Germany, Italy, Poland and Hungary, etc. I simply cannot see that it is.
I do agree with you, Duke, there will be dreadful fall out if, and I accept that it remains an if, the EU fails. That we will no longer be members would not shield us totally from those consequences. However, the proven business approach to developing at least some protection from such collapses of one of one’s biggest customers or markets is always rapid diversification. If we can expand and strengthen our involvement in other markets before such an eventuality then we would at least have some mitigation of the effects of the EU collapsing were that to occur, wouldn’t we. I cannot see that putting the majority of one’s eggs is a basket that is already showing quite marked signs of potential failure is prudent.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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