@thevfmaddict
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I trust you have read the Honda announcement here. Its closing its Turkey production plant at the same time its closes its Swindon. Is that down to Brexit too? Make sure you read that statement in full right to the end, which reads – “Honda’s European HQ will continue to be located in the UK. It will be focused on serving the needs of our European customers.” Finally, Swindon produces the Civic as you know as does Turkey. Both plants don’t close until production of the Civic ceases worldwide in 2021.
I can’t help but feel both of you (Duke and Ed) were seeing what you wanted to see, an opportunity to blame Brexit; which in reality was simply not there.
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Now, now…..Ed…….don’t exaggerate………. 5 x 3,500 is 17, 500 as full well you know………….? It may also surprise you but Honda sales in the EU have been tumbling for years. It is now in the No. 19 spot in car sales to the EU just about everyone you could think of outsells them. So with that and the Japanese free trade deal there is very little reason to produce anywhere in the EU anymore.
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PS @Duke,
I should also have mentioned that if anything the EU free trade deal with Japan is more to blame for our loss of Nissan and now Honda. No need to produce now in any EU state; so both can and are reconsolidating production in Japan. This therefore would have occurred for that very reason no matter whether we Left or Remained in the EU. Actually given all of that I’m surprised that Toyota are staying in the UK and a month or so back began production of the world’s best selling car here; which would you believe it is actually the Corolla(?).
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Honda are out too now. RIP Swindon. If only there was anyone experts predicting this type of stiff
I’m sure the brexiteers PR wagon is sringing in to action to try and spin this as a non Brexit issue.WTF, Duke, are you trolling or are you truly that taken in by Project Fear. No-one is putting Honda down to Brexit. If it was Brexit Honda would simply be moving to an EU country. They are not.
Like most manufacturers Honda are responding to global market dynamics. These include a move from diesel (and petrol) to electric which the EU like us will be pushing; a slowdown in the world economy; and vast automobile over production capacity worldwide. I doubt you put Brexit down as the reason why Nissan has cut production at three Chinese plants; why Ford is to shed most of its North American car line-up and GM is shutting production at five facilities also in North America.
Of course it you are prone to blindly accepting Project Fear you will not have noticed (because the Project Fear biased media is hardly mentioning it) that Citigroup is now attempting to buy its London office for £1.2 billion. A huge, huge vote of confidence in London and the UK. And also failed to notice that the EU are starting to blink often.
CityAM Editor Christian May has written how the EU have “blinked” when it comes to a No Deal Brexit, with plans put in place to minimise disruption. In event of no-deal: 12 month equivalence regime to ensure that there will be no immediate disruption to derivatives clearing and 24 months of equivalence to ensure no disruption in central depositaries services for EU operators currently using UK operators. It is untrue that No Deal means no transition period. There have been similar ‘blinks’ re road haulage but those too get virtually no mention in the main stream media.
Broad-base your news consumption looking at what is truly taking place in each market sector and you will probably be shocked how much the Beeb etc., are forgetting (!!!) to mention. Its offensive how they are seeking to misinform the public via selective coverage. Its even worse that what both sides did in the Ref campaign.
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@Ed
Agree 100% that the Irish Press and Sinn Féin – “Both portray a Hard Border as a betrayal of the principles of the GFA.” So who is going to put up one and enforce it? Varadkar says he won’t. We say we won’t. The EU are making noises that they will threaten Eire to put one up. That’s my very point. Who will enact the betrayal of the GFA? Frankly the backstop also betrays the GFA as it breaches the principle of consent enshrined in the GFA.
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Come on now, Dave, the New Gang of Seven, is evangelically asking others to join them. How will they stand come next GE if not as a new party?
RE Eire – I think the Irish Independent link I have posted twice shows that it is bully boy tactics by the EU that are feared. Left to our own devices neither we nor Eire would set up a border. I do wonder about you querying an open border between us an Eire as being against the principles of Brexit re immigration. We have had a free travel area with Eire since long, long before either of us were members of the EEC or EU. And, remember its EU rules and control we desire to leave behind not long standing agreements between us and Eire.
If Eire don’t want a hard border which is what they say and say they would never set up one and then the EU forces them to, by threat of kicking them out of the CU and SM, tell me who will appear the bully boys? Remembering that we agree with Eire and would not want or set up a hard border. It is obviously not each other we and Eire are in disagreement with it is the EU. I think the EU’s explicit threats to Eire made at that point will focus the mind and perhaps even have Irish Americans realising just why we wanted to leave that Bureaucratic out of touch Mafia, the EU Commission – which is in effect what Soros was saving in his recent article. The peoples of Europe and the EU Commission are increasingly standing opposed to one another from Italy, to Poland, to Greece……… I surely do not need to cite the wide spread evidence of such.
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I agree that UKIP never won a seat due to FPTP even though it got 4M votes. But sure as hell the dynamic is very different now. Far more people have their danders up about the EU and the way it has treated us during the last two years. The vast majority of Tory party members and activists are totally against May’s Deal if the backstop remains. All polling and other research is clear that the political divide in the electorate is not Left v Right anymore but Remainers versus Leavers. Different alliances and different battle lines often result in vastly different outcomes. Yes, the new Brexit Party, could split the Tory and Leave vote but Chukka et al to the rescue it seems committed to also splitting the Labour and Remain vote also. ‘We live in interesting times’ could never be more accurate than now.
I can’t see May calling a GE in such circumstances. Far too unpredictable. Neither can I see her calling Ref2 either as that also is too unpredictable.
I agree the USA Noraid could morph into EireAid and probably would. But as it seems it would be the EU that would force a hard border on them or kick them out of the CU & SM, while we have pledged never to set up a hard border, I’m not certain any wrath would be solely in our direction from either the Eire electorate or across the big pond. Yes, we may have fired the starting gun in search of our own restored sovereignty just as did Gavrillo Princip in WW1 but its those who mobilise the troops that usually get the blame. If the EU get heavy, very heavy handed with Eire, they will carry the brunt along with Varadkar, I’m sure.
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Couldn’t agree more, Dave. May should have taken Tusk’s arm off when he offered a Canada ++ deal a year back. Things would be sorted by now had she accepted. More foolish behaviour by her of the kind, Ed, cited. I guess of one thing we would all agree, albeit, to support different positions, and that is that May is personally responsible for where she and we all find ourselves today. But I do believe that May is ‘internally’ entrenched and come what may will shift heaven and earth, fighting dirty or fair, to ensure we leave on 29th March. If not she will go down in history as a failure and the Tories too will crash as those opposed to her current deal or an extension are mobilising at a phenomenal rate. Farage’s new Brexit Party has in just one week received pre-registrations of 100,000 and there’s also another well funded party being formed, ‘Brexit Express’, as well. Both already have war chests of over £1M to fight a snap GE if one is called and funds are flowing in. If May’s deal or an extension occur a significant number of the 17.4M who voted Leave in 2016 will put their support there and such will be many magnitudes greater than the threat Cameron faced from UKIP.
I accept as true your statement that – ‘The only bit of parliament that thinks No Deal is anything other than a huge threat are the leave at any cost brigade’. However, parliament does not reflect the will of even the current Tory party membership nor for that matter the public. More and more I hear folks saying we must leave on 29 March and put an end to this fiasco no matter what; and I would add that’s mainly in London which was a Remain area.
Personally, I hope the EU recognises that No Deal has no backstop whatsoever(!) re the N.I. border. Far better therefore to change the WA for a time limited or softer backstop. If not it has big problems. Shaft Eire by forcing them to set up a hard border or kicking Eire out of the CU & SM – and – then shaft EU politically, especially the nearing recession German one, by having to financially bail Eire out. Oil and gas tariffs alone would cripple Eire since they get about 90% of both from us. So the bail out would have to be HUGE; dwarfing what Greece cost. It is all too easy to forget all of such. That is the true gun to the EU’s head not lost exports and sawn-off double barrelled shotgun politically. Especially in that 29 March pre-dates the May EU elections.
At least the Irish press has now woken up to such as the Irish Independent Lead Editorial link I posted previously shows.
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Indeed, she could even argue that it was wot Parliament told her to do given that well over 400 that voted for the Act which fixed the 29 March is law as the absolute date we Leave.
As for what Ed said I cant dispute a thing and do agree. I had meant in my own words that she has at least the ability to know that its PM’s that in history carry the can not MPs. However, if as he seems to feel leaving without a deal would be dangerously foolish – and – as he also seems to believe May is a total fool – then – the act of her leaving with No Deal would surely seem the most likely and merely par for the course.
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…………. I have problems in accepting that any foreigners have a right to interfere with our business. …………..
Good God, Ed, there’s a sentence we would both agree on. While in any customs union we are prevented from making our own trade deal with any country. That’s why most Leavers are so against a CU.
While most folks are looking at the week after next and the next ‘meaningful vote’ as the next significant date point at which dynamics may change in the Parliament I am looking more closely at this coming Tuesday. On that day the AG, Geoffrey Cox, who’s advice was that the backstop indefinitely commits the UK to a CU, will set out what changes would be needed to remove it. The way in which he does so will give us a true glimpse of where things are likely to go. Will it suggest they are not that great thereby heaping blame on the EU for no modification or will he suggest the changes as so massive that it is unreasonable for us to insist on them. The direction of that bias in his words I am sure will weigh on Parliament because they will impact public opinion. So for me this coming Tuesday it likely to be a very important day.
On a slightly different point I note that May is stressing how history will judge Parliament on whether Brexit is delivered on time. Come on now, she knows that ‘common/popular’ history never remembers who most Ministers were at a given point in time let alone who MPs were. Its the PM that is remembered and carries the can. After all who were the Ministers who took us in in Heath’s day or who were Major’s Ministers at the time of Maastricht? So in many ways she is currently talking specifically about herself. If Brexit isn’t delivered on time, it will be May that didn’t deliver. History will not say she didn’t deliver because Parliament wouldn’t let her it will say she was incompetent at carrying Parliament with her. She may be many things but is not a total foll and surely knows this. Therefore for her personally (i.e. in her own mind) I cannot see that delaying leaving on 29 March which she has so constantly committed to is even an option. If and I stress ‘if’ the EU won’t shift and her WA deal won’t pass, I cannot see how she personally can do anything other than leave on 29th, No Deal. Her defence, irrespective of the eventual consequences of such, be they ultimately good or bad, will in history be that the public said we must leave and they were her paymasters. I think internally she will require in order to retain any self-respect whatsoever to keep to 29th March no matter what. Read the person not the words. Put differently consider that dynamic, the person within regarding May just as you insist on doing, Ed, with Soros. Then you might see what I mean.
No deal – and I would add I would accept May’s deal with a removed or softened backstop – is I believe now because of who May is as a person far more likely than not, if the EU don’t move significantly to compromise. Cox’s view on the changes need, which with his political hat on, will I suspect in many ways give us a glimpse not only of the legalities but in their bias a glimpse of her reading on May.
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Not sure that there’s a conspiracy there, Ed. Its not been hidden that Bannon was working on such. Its been well publicised for months. Also its not unusual for parties to employ strategists from other countries. Its happened in the UK with regularity.
Ed, we are 28 separate nations most with centuries of history and different personalities/psyches. Especially the UK but I won’t labour that point. The spectrum of differences is far wider than it ever was in even the old Soviet bloc. We all have different priorities not just at governmental level but at the popular level. One might describe them as different ‘red lines’. You cannot easily meld and harmonise that which took centuries to establish and develop in a matter of decades. So people of the 28 states begin to feel the have and indeed they have lost sovereignty and in such circumstances they look and move Right for a solution. Looking left doesn’t help because almost of its very nature the Left is about melding and harmonisation. How weird it is that one of the objectives of the EU concept was to avoid the far right rising again but thought through logically of its very nature makes such a certainty. To see what I mean just think about the UK; the predominantly two party system. Go left for too long and then whoosh things swing back hard to the right such that things then swing back to the left – Rinse and Repeat.
Lets be real here. You and I would probably both be in favour of that which the EEC was held up to be – a trading bloc. There are an increasing number of such around the globe and most are doing well. But none of those have the political add-ons the EU already has such as freedom of movement and none have the aims or goals of a common currency, a common fiscal policy, a common army, a common foreign policy, a common legislature and common judiciary, etc., etc. Nations are far too long established in Europe for their peoples to allow their parliaments to become little more that parish councils in a big EU state. I can’t recall who said it but I agree with the words which were not that the EU is too big and because of such will fail but rather that it is too big to ever ultimately succeed.
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Easy to find out what worries Belgians and it certainly isn’t Brexit. The main common headline across the EU is the kid’s climate change protests. Brussels Times
Worries re a No Deal vary dramatically across the EU state to state; an in countries by Region to Region. Germany it is car Exports so Bavaria and Munich, Belgium it is numerous exports, France it is agricultural produce, etc.
Job loss predictions also vary. The Flanders area of Belgium alone predicts 42,000 job losses and the whole of Germany 100,000. But obviously the effect on Flanders is socially much greater given its far smaller population.
I know I keep talking re Eire but its not just that we are Eire’s largest export market it is also its imports that are significant. EU imposed import tariffs on UK goods in the case of No Deal would savage every household. It is pretty much totally reliant on us for filling the tanks of its cars and heating. It gets around 90% of its oil products from us and over 90% of its gas. Varadkar truly is ‘betting the house’ on either us caving in re the backstop or the EU bailing Eire out if it’s a No Deal. Hence the Editorial in the Irish Independent I linked earlier because an EU bail out is by no means certain. If Varadkar has bet wrong then he will have sunk Eire. We are talking meteoric inflation and a totally trashed economy pretty much overnight and on a scale far greater that even that which you envisage for the UK in the event of that same No Deal.
I’ve read many European articles and reports, Regional, National or by Market Sector and truly the bigger economy EU states, as opposed to the smaller or Eastern EU states, have a HUGE amount to fear from a No Deal. The likes of Varadkar, Macron and Merkel have much to fear.. It is them not us that are in the land of the Emperor’s New Clothes. The EU’s, pretty much enforced and collective, brave face is a mask. We are not simply in a game of chicken but also a masquerade. The funny thing is that the likes of Junker and Tusk have little to fear from No Deal. The current EU commission is out of office automatically come the May EU elections. Moreover given the Eurosceptic surge that all accept is coming a new and different EU Hierarchy is pretty certain.
Although its a few months out of date this Politico link is the most readable overview I’ve ever come across regarding the various significant No Deal impacts on the EU.
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Don’t follow your arguments one bit there, Duke. Out or Leave do not mean excluding EU states from the World. Nothing wrong working with American, South African, French, Chinese, Indian or Polish businesses or workers equally when we have left. Out means not having to give favoritism to any particular state or its businesses or workers. We buy-in what we need from wherever we want. So nothing wrong working with EDF, France will remain part of the World and Brexit Britain seeks to trade globally without the constraints of EU protectionism.
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Rather than start a new post I thought the following two items of news may be of interest to readers of this thread.
The Irish press is starting to fear that the Bullies of the EU will shaft Eire if we go No Deal. This lead Editorial in yesterday’s Irish Independent is a must read. They are hearing very ominous sounds in Brussels.
Meanwhile in Italy, Claudio Borghi, who is also Chairman of the Budget Committee, for the governing Lega party said of reform after May’s European Elections: “I think this is the last opportunity.”…….“Either we succeed in changing (EU) now or we will have to Leave.”…….“If the environment remains toxic, I will say ‘let’s go out.’ Since 2000, Italy has grown by 3% we lost two decades and threw them, there was no economic progress.” Report from the HuffPost here.
It must also not be forgotten that Germany’s AfD party which is growing in leaps and bounds and is likely to surge in the EU Elections in May, within it draft Manifesto agreed at its January conference, pledged to campaign for Berlin’s exit from the EU in the upcoming European Parliament elections if its demand for reforms within the bloc are not met. This is the first time any major party in Germany has called for Dexit. Watch this space – especially if Germany has to bail out Eire in the case of a No Deal. Truly can’t see the German electorate stomaching another bail out by Berlin when the German Economy is already flat lining and heading towards recession even assuming we don’t No Deal and damage its 25 billion Euro car exports to the UK.
All in all I bet the Pharmacies of Brussels are doing a roaring trade in headache and incontinence medications if the truth were known. Its close to impossible to find a single dynamic at present which bodes well for the EU’s long term survival.
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First to Dave;
Don’t be silly such dire forecast (i.e. beggaring) relies on Project Fear being true. What beggaring if it is not, BTW have you seen the FT lately. The latest cracked me up. If the EU doesn’t give the London markets full equivalence then the German Investment Funds Association said, “without equivalence granted to UK trading venues, we see the real possibility of EU27 fund managers locating operations in the future in the UK”. So the German association says the Financial Services Exodus will be from the EU 27 to us!!! I wonder if the Beeb will report that not insignificant opinion other than in small piece which is hardly locatable. Where are you Remainers getting your news? I cite the EU’s own growth predictions for the UK, Reuters and the FT etc., while Ed cited Breitbart recently. Truly, so much of Project Fear is falling apart day by day if you bother to fully look.
Now to Ed;
What the hell are you talking about? I thought I made clear that roll-over of existing EU trade deals, which we currently have access to, is nothing to do with the EU giving us a trade deal. The deal is already in place between us and the other third party states by deem of our EU membership. It can be rolled over by us unless the EU or the third party state veto’s it. Individual EU member states would have no unilateral right of veto because the deal being rolled over is already in place. I do accept that individual EU member states could put pressure on the commission to use their veto but no state alone could force the EU to use the EU’s potential veto.
One sentence in your second paragraph would I think have most readers doing a face palm. There is no question that May and Robbins (both Remainers) controlled the negotiations. Both Davis and Raab walked because of such. Indeed, when Barclay was put in post it was made clear to him that such would continue. It borders on the preposterous for you to write as you did – “The negotiators were all Brexiteers, and it is their fault that they achieved little.” Especially by your inclusion of the word “all” a patently untrue statement. Are you having a laugh, Ed. You surely don’t believe what you wrote do you? Almost exclusively it has been May and Robbins who no-one would describe as Brexiteers. OK…go on then…..you have my permission to do your own face palm as you reflect on what you wrote………you know you want to, don’t you.
Being straight faced serious again though, the plan Davis had been working on was along the lines of the Canada ++ that Tusk offered and had we gone that route it would already be sorted by now. But May had been working behinds the scenes with the Chequers Plan and sprung it out of the blue on the cabinet at that retreat trying to railroad the entire cabinet. Come to think of it ‘retreat’ is a good description regarding what May has politically been in since Chequers.
As for closing shot (a very appropriate term given the subject matter) EU business organisations are increasingly filling the magazine of the gun we can hold to the EU’s head. That the EU not giving equivalence for the London Financial Markets would cause an exodus from the EU to us certainly blows the brains out of another the Project Fear’s falsehoods. Doesn’t it !!! Given that our economy is so heavily FS based such an exodus from the EU to us alone would make Brexit a HUGE success. Sadly I don’t think that the EU would be that stupid so they will give London full access and equivalence. That’ll do though because we can, can’t we, say from that, that the main engine of the UK economy will not be injured one iota by Brexit.
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My apologies. Because of the context within which you posed your questions they appeared merely rhetorical. I will do my best to deal with them all.
Firstly I assure you the EU’s power re roll-over under GATT Art.24 is only that of veto if it desires. It does not need to ‘actively agree’ so to speak. You are incorrect that individual EU states could veto roll-over. Under EU rules they can only veto before a trade deal is finalised; so for example could not veto roll-over of deals currently in place such as the Japan deal. God, Ed, I truly wish you were correct because if you were we would not just have a No Deal gun we would have a Thermonuclear Weapon. Because still currently being members we could veto every EU trade deal the EU already has in place until a decent WA is agreed.
The question you pose as to why the EU as a whole would not veto roll-over currently returns us of course to the old issue of the manner of earlier negotiations. The EU never believed we would go for No Deal hence was never under pressure as regards its potential loses. Only now is it starting to come under pressure from its own business community to avert such. The EU would have been under two years of growing pressure if from the start we had headed for No Deal but stated we would be open to a free trade deal after leaving provided that the WA was favourable and they desired one. I cannot understand why Remainers refuse to recognise that it was our abysmal approach to the negotiations that brings us to where we are today. Truly, can you ever imagine going to an employer and saying I want a pay rise but I’m not going to leave even if I don’t get one. May/Robbins strategy was fundamentally that type of preposterous stance from the start. It was a case of give us whatever WA agreement you want because we will accept it whatever it is. I don’t blame the EU for making the most of that Golden Opportunity gifted them by May. The reality is though that even in March 2017, on the 3rd IIRC, Tusk openly offered us a Canada ++ FTA. Ideal. Obviously the EU wasn’t worrying about the N.I. border then. May declined it. I therefore to a degree concur with you as to why on Earth would they offer things we want now. May did have an opportunity when Robbins got big mouthed in the bar. If she had fired him and appointed a true Brexiteer then the EU might even now have realised it was truly looking at the barrel of the No Deal gun. But she did not. Anyway Robbins probably had been acting merely on May’s orders and my bet is Robbins covers his butt and holds firm evidence that he had been. He’s that kind of guy….LOL If this is so then at the very least May has been repeatedly lying to Parliament almost if not over the line that defines Treason. And as I understand it an MP would not protected from prosecution for such by Parliamentary privilege; obviously though such is academic as it will never happen either way. May is now between a rock and a very, very hard place. She was adamant that we leave at the end of March but if her unaltered WA deal does not pass, and it is unlikely that it will, then what does she do? If we don’t leave at the end of March then the case for alleging She and Parliament has not respected the Ref Result is carried even at the toughest possible burden one could apply.
My own view of May is that she has made her mind up that her sole task is to deliver the result of the Ref. That I believe, in her mind, is what she will be judged on in history. She’s probably right. I therefore half suspect she will go No Deal if push comes to shove. She has several legal tools to make that occur unless Eliz II doesn’t follow her advice. My bet is her maj would. The Queen will not refuse accent to a Prime Ministerial request that Parliament go into recess in the last weeks of March in the national interests. I think May may already be trying to kick the can such that either Parliament backs her deal through panic or that option opens for her. Is she maneuveringwhere she can fulfil her premiership objective either way? What else are May’s options – Don’t deliver the Ref and thereby self-certify in history her premiership as not having delivered on that which it set as its sole task; fatally wound democracy and unquestionably split the Tory party asunder. I think people have not been reading May’s own inner needs fully or looking at the gun that is pointed at her self image if we don’t leave at the end of March. I might be wrong. But I’ve spent my life examining and making a living out of what individual’s inner needs are and I think I can see what May’s are. I once secured a big video production deal just by recognising that the buyer had photo’s of his young son everywhere in his office. Bingo. I story lined the proposed video with a part for a young child and suggested that to keep costs down and for the fun of it his son could take that minor starring role. Deal closed in seconds. Only time will tell but I think I read May’s inner needs and they are to deliver on the ref on time come what may. Anything else and she’ll see herself as a failure in history.
Finally, the Beeb. It is clear you buy into the Beeb being neutral. Do you believe The Guardian also being such? May I suggest that you look back at all the facts I have directed you to. I am not saying that the Beeb makes things up. Rather it is that there are typically to bodies of opinion re most indicators or there are two sets of differing indicators. The Beed only big’s up those favouring remain. For example, the Beeb made BIG of Hammond’s down-rating of his growth predictions for the UK in 2019. While its close to impossible to find even a mention that the EU up-rated its UK forecast at the same time and to a level above Hammond’s. Equally I also said the Beeb were BIG on Nissan but hardly a word on Toyota just starting production here of the world’s best selling car here. No mention on the Beeb either that there has been no major exodus of financial services whatsoever and that staff are still being recruited for the UK in greater numbers than for the EU financial hubs. The Beeb totally ignored Reuters regarding that. I could go on but I doubt you’d accept the evidence of bias which if fully studied by a neutral jury would find the Beeb guilty of bias. Go look at the panels for Question time. That’s another good example. With only one exception in the last year the Beeb has selected a majority of Remainers. Indeed on occassion there been only one Leaver on the panel. So, Ed, I expect you and I will have to differ on whether the Beeb is neutral. I see no evidence that it has been. I do though from your words regarding the Beeb assume that you will in future and without question, accept any and all Beeb material I cite regarding Leave as being gospel, unchallengeable and with no valid opposing data existing. Fair enough?
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I said before I have zero interest in reading and even less interest in analysing the biased propaganda of Soros. Anything he communicates has a dollar motive to it. Sorry but that is my last word on him. I take it from your repeated evasions that you are trying to avoid answering my questions?
I do apologise if I have not responded to one or more of your questions. I have re-read both mine and your earlier posts and as far as I can see I answered all of them. Could you please let me know which one(s) I did not and I will gladly correct my failing, promptly.
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Ed, I understand your mistrust for Soros. I wouldn’t trust him as far as I can throw a Steam-Roller. What struck me about his words were that he appeared to be, and on close analysis of his text was, trying to alert the EU Commission to the fact that they must recognise that their too rigid adherence to ideology and dogma is what gives the eurosceptic parties across the EU their life blood. I cannot myself logically disagree with that.
Let me ask you a very simple question, Ed, do you think that with his article Soros was trying to steer the EU into a direction where it is more likely to survive or do you think he was trying to hasten its collapse? Surely he desires one or the other; even though quite frankly one can equally make a fortune in which ever direction it goes provided that one anticipate the direction correctly or cause a direction to occur.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
You seem sure of what Soros’s agenda is. I can’t see that the CIA, despite all it skills and resources will be able to know what conclusions you are reaching in your own head. So I ask again what do you believe his agenda/intent was in saying that the EU had better reform itself or face collapse? I’m not asking for you to support your conclusions with masses of evidence. A simple sentence or two would do. You clearly have reached conclusions, please simply share them, Ed.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I would appreciate it if you did answer my question regarding what Soros’s intent was in your eyes; because it intrigues me.
As regards The Guardian, which is a heavily Remain biased journal, relies Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the BoE’s monetary policy committee. You will understand if I quite rationally reject its thrust due to that. Mystic Meg is better at predictions than they are. The BoE predicted deep recession from the day after we voted Leave and mass unemployment and rabid inflation soon after that. The exact reverse is the case, is it not? There was no recession and we are out performing Germany and predicted to do so this year. It is Germany with a flat-lining economy as reported today. In the UK unemployment is pretty much the lowest ever and wage growth is outstripping inflation, which is also lower than the BoE predicted recently. Indeed, there is strong evidence of Project Fear playing a role in the BoE ‘s current predictions. The EU, with no reason to big us up, has just increased its prediction of UK performance this year when the BoE is bigging it down(!). Inward investment has not significantly fallen nor has there been the exodus of jobs in the finance markets. Indeed it is impossible to find one point where the BoE has predicted anything other than totally incorrectly since 2000. I note that the BBC like the BoE has also constantly pushed project fear. It went big on Nissan but hardly a mention just a month or so ago when Toyota began building the world’s best selling car here; surprisingly the world’s best selling car is the Corolla.
Currently everyone is talking today’s threats by Ford. But hell they have been pulling out of the UK since long before Brexit became an issue. No Ford Cars built here since the very early 2000’s; 2002 or 2005 IIRC. Brexit or no Brexit Ford will leave soon. The real estate at Dagenham was bought when Dagenham was truly cheap countryside but now due to the urban expansion of London their plant is part of London and is probably the biggest potential real estate treasure chest ever seen. They’d be mugs not to cease production of engines there, making a HUGE killing on the land and instead build in the Eastern EU states whether or not we remain in the EU. Moreover their current boss is not an ‘Automobile Man’ but an ‘Accountant’ and certainly will have his eyes on that trick. I happen to know folks who live in Dagenham and nearby in Barking. Over the years all have said to me that it is amazing Ford hadn’t already left for that very reason – Who these days carries out an industrial process on prime real estate. They’ve been expecting Ford to leave for years. Brexit truly plays little part.
Anyway, back to Soros, what do you think his intent was? I’m truly interested in case I’ve missed something.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Sorry – if you say Soros I think propaganda. That man is totally untrustworthy as proved by HIS wartime past. However I do agree that trade barriers are not good for any economy. Now prove to me that we do not lose all the trade deals that the EU negotiated over the years and have to fall back on WTO tariff for the long period it will take to renegotiate them. As Dave keeps pointing out Japan (for example) cannot just give us an automatic pass into its legal trade agreement with the EU. It would need a NEW trade agreement with the UK if it wanted to avoid giving the rest of the world its EU tariff rates. I am of course mainly referring to our exports such as Scotch Whisky. (370,000 yen/kl if outside EU, now zero to EU members).
As I understand it Dave is wrong. Japan has been a member of the WTO since 1995 and GATT since 1955. As you will know the WTO incorporated GATT. It can follow such. GATT Article 24 allows 10 years grace on existing deals. The way is there to avoid tariffs provided the EU desires to prevent a hard Brexit. An extension of the transition period is not strictly necessary just a commitment by the EU not to attempt to veto GATT Art.24 provisions. 10 years will give us all (the UK and EU) time for a technological solution to the N.I. border to be found and readied.
This in part explains.
Returning to Soros it is clear you disagree with my conclusions re his intent. No problem. Its just that I can’t see his intent could be read any other way than as I concluded. I would be therefore be very interested if you could explain what you personally concluded his intent was in saying the EU must wise up or face collapse.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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