[The VFM Addict]

At 8.42am I wrote here, “….. All in all there are so very many unpredictable events and permutations at present the mind boggles”.      Within minutes a new classification of defectors was born.   Labour MP Ian Austin resigned the Labour whip and in doing so became the first of a whole new class of Independents; the Pro-Brexit Labour Leavers.    I wonder how many more MPs will leave Labour but, like Austin, won’t join the TIG because it is an anti-Brexit bloc?

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[The VFM Addict]

@D-Dan,

Its only 6 if the 3 vote against the government.  If they abstain its 3 of May’s majority lost.

@Ed

I think the next week is crunch time.   As we are all aware we never really know who will actually do what until the Division Bells ring.   Talk is cheap but defying the Whips can be very expensive indeed.   If Cox gets his cod-piece (i.e. a codicil to weaken the backstop) that might change all dynamics.  At the end of the day though I suspect it really comes down solely to the DUP who hold the shotgun to Tory rule.   If they won’t budge and pull the trigger then a Vote of No Confidence will be called and topple everything.    My bet is that if she suspects that likely then her favoured option we could be a snap GE.   All in all there are so very many unpredictable events and permutations at present the mind boggles.   Have there ever been more interesting times?   I truly doubt it.

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[The VFM Addict]

The one thing about BoJo that is a plus is that he’s good at delegation.  Guess he has to be when he’s not much good at anything himself.   Certainly as Mayor of London and despite his cranky ideas like the Garden Bridge he was still many times better than Khan.   In my experience those who can’t delegate or don’t trust those they delegate to, wanting instead to have their own hands in every pie, usually mess things up more than anyone.

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[The VFM Addict]

I suspect we have a point of total agreement between us there.  Even though I live in BoJo’s seat and have nothing too much to complain of there re a pro-Brexit MP, I have long been a supporter of PR.   Why the hell the PR ref a few years back went the way it did I don’t understand.   But I’d bet all I have if there were such a PR ref today then there would be a massive majority in favour.

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[The VFM Addict]

How fascinating, Ed.   As regards intent to never again vote Tory I hear the identical sentiment from many if Brexit is fudged or not delivered on time.   Yet, and here is the strange reality, the Cons remain well ahead in the latest polls, even those that have included TIG.    It seems TIG are damaging Labour far more than the Tories.   Personally though I don’t think current polls mean a thing.   However, those after 29 March are likely to mean everything.   Its probably full blown limbo-land until then.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

After much fierce competition and several outstanding nominations we can now announce that the 2019 Hypocrisy Oscar is awarded to……….(pause while the gold envelope is opened)………..Heidi Allen. Let’s look at her truly stunning performance.

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[The VFM Addict]

I agree, JCD, that UKIP are dead.  But whether there exists an opening for the new Brexit Party depends on the events of the coming month or so.    If we do not leave on 29 March or there is a fudge that can clearly be sold to the 17.4M who voted Leave as a betrayal of such then that Brexit Party has a far more substantial platform than TIG and perhaps even more substantial than UKIP ever had; because the Ref energised so very many who previously had no interest in politics.    Were I May and if her deal cannot pass Parliament then if I were her I’d call a snap GE pdq while Labour are in disarray and before TIG or the Brexit Party can fully mobilise.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

My oh my things are hotting up.    Almost 80,000 signatures already as I write on a petition effectively demanding that the TIG set resign and fight by-elections.    While at the same time, in an attempt to not be out done by her Labour colleagues who declare Labour to now be a racist party, Soubry has pretty much leveled the same accusation against May saying that because of Windrush, etc.,  she thinks May has a problem with immigration.    Come to think of it Soubry does often look like a hissing cat and now the claws are certainly out.   Truly interesting times.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

FPTP pretty much guarantees that the Lab-Con cartel is invulnerable.   As I see it the best that any start-up can do is cause one side of the other of the two party cartel to alter course a little for fear of the other binary choice getting voted in due to lost votes.   Remember UKIP; 4M votes but not one seat.

The biggest problem for TIG as I see it is that it is trying to built top down.   No grass roots.   Where will such come from if it all?   I just can’t see an army of those who have previously never been activists appearing out of nowhere.   And while the Lab and Tory TIG MPs may be happy to work together I just can’t see local past Tory and local past Lab activists burying the previously well blooded hatchet and working together.   I truly believe that the chances of TIG succeeding are hardly any better than the chances of finding rocking horse droppings on the far side of the moon and the latter would be far more interesting.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

I recently had cause to look up a few things about the current Labour Party Chairman, Ian Lavery, MP for Wansbeck since 2010 and former NUM Leader who took over from Scargill.   A true Leftie on the face of it and one of the key supporters of Corbyn in his two leadership elections.

I reckon he took that Hypocratic Oath several times just to be sure.    Lavery has been critical of New Labour figures, particularly those who have enjoyed lucrative work in the private sector.   Instead he appears to grab everything possible directly from either Trade Union’s purses or the public purse by as many dubious means as is possible.

Take a look at the whole ‘Controversies’ section two thirds down the page here.   It is quite some read.   All in all a perfect person to be the Chairman of any Political Party.

Oh, I forgot.   He clearly understands what is and isn’t racist also.   Here’s a picture of him posing with his son.

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[The VFM Addict]

Just to calm myself down re all the hypocrisy I have reminded myself of the typical flight path of all break away new parties (?) in the HoC.   It goes like this.

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[The VFM Addict]

For some light relief from this heavy thread, I thought I’d post this –

Jamie Driscoll, Labour’s Momentum backed candidate for North of Tyne Mayor personifies the problem Labour has in heavily Leave voting areas.   You can almost hear the backchatter inside his head as he is interviewed by ITV’s Joe Pike – ‘I must not answer one way or the other…. I must not answer one way or the other…… I must not answer one way or the other’.     Poor lad.   Go one way Momentum will crucify him go the other and the voters will.    It could almost be a comedy sketch.    Take a look.

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[The VFM Addict]

Dave Rice wrote:

I wouldn’t be so complacent. The silent moderates are starting to find their voices. TM’s refusal to meet the moderates in her party are hastening the process.

I’m not sure which ‘moderates’ you are talking about.   Well perhaps the Labour TIG could be described as such but certainly not the Three Ugly Tory Sisters.    By any correct definition they are the ones that are Rebels.   All stood on a manifesto that was explicit that we would leave the CU & SM and all have rebelled against that upon which they were elected.   All have called for a People’s Vote on the basis that voters didn’t know what they voted for.   Well such is surely true re them too given their abandonment of the manifesto they stood on.   So why will they not have a People’s Vote regarding such by resigning and triggering a by-election?   Its hypocrisy of the highest order to hold one is resigning on principle and then demonstrate that one does not oneself have any principles.

What sickens me most about them is the smoke screen of falsehoods they proffered today as to why they are leaving;  i.e.  a key one being that local associations are being taken over by extremists.   It is the Chairs of most local Con. Assoc.’s who have been Tory members for years who are desiring that the manifesto is stuck to.   The Tory membership numbers have not increased and a grand total of zero local associations have initiated deselections – not even Nick Boles local association has.

I note that both Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry have pulled out of interviews on Sky News this afternoon.  Hardly surprising given that the lies they told today of a Purple Momentum “subsuming the Conservative Party” have been demonstrated to be such almost instantly.

 

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[The VFM Addict]

I’d bet no more Tories but lots more Labour.

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[The VFM Addict]

Glad you provided the link although I thought I linked the report previously.   Now what in particular were you citing on the page you linked, Ed?      May I highlight the section on ‘FDI – liabilities (overseas investment into the UK)’  and the text that accompanies it that is clear that investors have confidence in future UK economic growth.   Indeed, I would suggest that readers review all of the ‘Trends to Consider’ sections on that page and decide on the total picture.

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[The VFM Addict]

I cannot help but feel, Bob, that you prove my point.  You declare as fact what will happen when no such certainty exists.    This is the crux of the matter both Remainers and Leavers believe differently and such cannot be decided until we have a factual record upon which to reach a conclusion.

Let us consider what occurs if we don’t leave.  The war between the two sides goes on and probably even more intensely than ever before.   Businesses would have no certainty in reality.   I truly believe such, in that it would go on for years, would indeed be catastrophic for inward investment, which despite the illusion projected by Project Fear had not yet occurred.   Go take a look at our economy.    Employment up equaling the best on record, unemployment down, wages increasing in real terms, growth predictions from the BoE and the EU which have us outperforming Germany, etc.   Is this what Project Fear predicted would occur once we had voted (note I say voted) to leave?

Next look around at other PF myths.  For example in the event of a No Deal there would be no transition period.   Yet the EU has set up transition arrangements in the case of a No Deal in every major sector from Air Travel to Road Haulage through Finance.

The reality is that Business is very good at succeeding no matter what the rules are.  Its uncertainty that does the damage and if we go down a route where the matter is not resolved conclusively then the uncertainty will endure with the battle between Leavers and Remainers totally dominating politics for decades.    That uncertainty will surely thwart the inward investment that is not being damaged at present and will of its nature damage employment progressively.

The public recognises that this has to be settled now and conclusively or are you for effectively kicking the can down the road with increasingly brutal political skirmishes at every lamppost for a decade?     I do understand your fears.    I believe they are wrong but acknowledge that they are very real to you and to many here.     But look around and you will find that a huge number of the fears proffered by PF truly are entirely unfounded and have already been shown to be literally without any substance whatsoever.   I note even here folks are persisting with trying to link Honda to Brexit or say it made that decision easier.   What part of Ian Howell’s declaration that it played no part do they not understand.    I stress again the Turkey plant closes at the same time.   Did Brexit make that decision easier also?    It is this intransigent compulsion among Remainers to link everything to Brexit that is preposterous.   Perhaps I should follow a similar preposterous rule and say that our fantastic employment levels at present and better predicted growth than Germany is obviously down to the fact that we are Leaving.   The reality is that I don’t believe it is.  Rather it is merely clear that the fact we are leaving is not damaging employment or our economy.    The figures could never be more conclusive.   They cannot be ignored.

I note at time of writing that May has again elected for rifts in our country.   She has rejected the compromise reached jointly by Leave and Remain MPs – the Malthouse Plan.   I have no doubts that this rejection of a sensible way forward will have pushed at least one or two Remain MPs into concluding that it truly now must be No Deal.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

I note Duke that you in effect accusing Ian Howell. Head of Honda UK of telling falsehoods.  He was clear and unequivocal on Radio 4 that Brexit played no part in the equation.    Japan is doing what Japan often does when there is major market downturn.   They reconsolidate production at home if economically viable.   Given the EU FTA with Japan Honda would have returned home irrespective of Brexit.   That’s why Honda’s press release also stated that the Turkey production plant closes at the same time as Swindon.   That can’t be down to Brexit can it?

With the long term political objectives of the EU the total deal we had while in the EU could not have endured long anyway.   So what WoF said is not crazy.   By the time we went back in, were that to occur, then we’d be in no different a position as if we had stayed in.   I have said over and over that the only way to end the division in the UK is to leave and ‘suck it and see’.    Without such the in-out rift can never be settled conclusively can it (?) and so the Leave/Remain battle would just go on and on and on and on and on and on and on………………………………………….    I think years of that would do more damage to the UK than anything.   Can’t you see that?

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

I think what I was trying to highlight was that the readmission of Hatton and the break away of the TIG are symptoms of the same malaise.   As much as I disliked Blair personally – and by that I mean both his personal objectives and persona – it is probably true to say that Labour under Blair was the closest we have ever had to a centrist party, which is perhaps why he won three elections.     Today, Labour is moving even further to the left of centre than the party was under Michael Foot.     I am simply not convinced that the Tories have yet themselves lurched as much to the right as Labour has to the left.

I’m unsure what we can read from the Yellow Vests in France.   Be it Left or Right movements the French always reacted violently.   Do you not recall (I can’t remember your age) the riots of 1968 across France which were leftist movements.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Isn’t it amazing how, as the likelihood of a No Deal Brexit has grown the last year, Employment has surged, Unemployment has plummeted and there has been a real rise in wages of 1.3% after inflation is taken in to account; and 60,000 fewer people are now on Zero Hours Contracts than were a year ago.  These are the figures published today by the ONS.

But I thought that businesses were gearing down, moving out of the UK and not recruiting for fear of a No Deal Brexit !!!    There’s an old saying that when theory doesn’t match reality it is without exception the theory that is wrong.   Such is Project Fear, a theory that is not matching the reality.  And I’m being very generous calling Project Fear a ‘theory’ rather than in the main an intentional deception.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

I disagree.  A matured market of approaching 70 million and with significant average incomes cannot be ignored by anyone.   If your argument was valid then the EU would never have bothered setting up a FTA with Canada because Canada has a population and economy both around half the size of ours.   Indeed, if your argument that we are too small to be bothered with then no-one whatsoever would bother with with ‘half our size’ Canada.

PS – Good to learn that you heard Ian Howells our R4 today as he settled conclusively the argument of whether Honda was a Brexit issue.  It was not.   However, I’ll bet a pound to a penny Remainers in general will still cite it as having been.  Such is the nature of Project Fear.

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