@thevfmaddict
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Now here’s the BBC spin. The BBC know that most folks just read the BBC’s text summary and won’t play Hancock’s interview in full. Go read the BBC text. Not a single mention of the fact that up to half a million could die. The Independent text linked in my above post told it like it is. The BBC seek to conceal the reality by never mentioning it. Proof positive that the BBC has been and are continuing playing down the truth.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Listen Up
Hancock is at last beginning to come clean. He admits half a million UK deaths is a “reasonable worst-case scenario”. Normal flu kills at most 16,000 a year in the UK even in its worst years. This is far, far more deadly. Prepare just in case and prepare PDQ.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I stand corrected there re the highest SARS CFR. At times I am now suffering from data overload. I should have double checked before posting.
I also wear glasses. All I have read is that normal glasses provide little protection. Indeed looking at myself I find I often adjust my glasses multiple times an hour (though not as much as Bill Gates does his) so in my case my glasses seem to increase hand to eye contact. Luckily my goggles fit over them easily. What I have found is that they actually hold my glasses in place so both the need to adjust my glasses does not arise and I am physically prevented from hand to eye contact. I do though keep a few extra tissues with me plus a small bottle of santizer gel so that if I have to take off the goggles for any reason I can clean both my hands and the goggles before putting them back on. I’ve noticed in images from China that it is not uncommon for medics to wear both goggles and a face visor. I’ve passed on that for the time being although if my locale were to become an dense outbreak hotspot I might just add one to my PPE.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I must admit I am somewhat sceptical that masks offer up to a five fold protection versus no barrier. All studies I have seen are neutral or conclude there is some small protection without putting a figure on it.
As we are all inclined to touch our faces (mouth, nose and eyes) many times an hour the core benefit of masks and goggles may well be, rather than stopping airborne ingestion, is that they prevent us from self-inoculation with any virus we may have picked up on our hands by touching our mouths, noses or eyes while out and about. So even the basic paper mask work in that respect. If, and the jury is still out on this, airborne aerosol transmission is occurring (rather than only larger droplet splutter from cough cod sneezes which have a shorter range) then a better mask is required – one rated either N95, N100, FFP2 or FFP3. Sometimes the FFP2 is called simply P2. There are versions of each that have no valve but the valved versions are best if you can find them because without a valve the vapour in our breath as we exhale tends to build up in the mask making it damp, dirty and less effective far sooner. This video provides instructions about putting on a mask and is correct no matter what type of mask one wears; except the very basic paper ones which sometimes have no mouldable metal nose strip. By the way if using the very basic paper ones the coloured side is the outside and the white is face-side. My opinion is that even if only to prevent one touching ones mouth, nose and eyes with infected hands when out and about masks and goggles are a must.
I agree with Ed that mask wearing should be implemented immediately for those serving the public. HMG and/or employers should mandate it not just for those in the NHS. My biggest concerns are the Police and Pharmacists. The Police often have to get extremely up close with numerous people during their day and the risk of infection will be very high. We are going to need every officer we have during this epidemic and simply cannot afford for large numbers to go off sick. Pharmacies will be full of infected individuals looking for remedies for what that individual has decided is just a cold or normal flu. As the majority of the infected never become serious and will be unaware they have this virus it may well be that more of the infected visit pharmacies than visit hospitals. My conclusion is therefore that pharmacies will be extremely virus laden environments. Pharmacists or Pharmacy staff who do not wear masks and goggles during this will to my mind be foolhardy in the extreme. When attending our pharmacy not only will it be mask and goggles for me it will also be disposable gloves and one of those clear plastic ponchos that can be picked up for a pound and disposed of along with the gloves promptly afterwards.
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Ed, I can’t remember where I saw them but I saw two different papers which refuted that the different numbers of ACE2 receptors found in different races would significantly impact susceptibility to this virus. One argued that no significant differences are seen in other areas of medicine where ACE2 receptors play a part in a condition or in medications used to treat such. The other paper argued that already we are seeing no CFR difference between Chinese regions (other than Wuhan) versus those of different ethnic origins. For me the big cruncher is the data from SARS; which also traverses via ACE2 receptors. Canada had the highest CFR with SARS; 17%. Higher than any Far East country.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
At 2.35pm I totalled the cases in Europe (inc. the UK) for my post at that time (above). It was 1,167 cases. Just undertook the same exercise to gauge if there had been any developments since then. Well here we are just six and a half hours later and its up to 1,465 cases. I note that in the number is Luxembourg’s first case. I bet Luxembourg has already offered the virus low corporate taxes.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
How fitting that today is 29 February this being a Leap Year. So it will be then. Into the greatest unknown which I can ever remember we now all leap……………….
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Any delay which staggers the numbers being infected over a longer period than might otherwise be the case means that the pressure placed on the NHS at any one point in time will be less. So folks; work from home if possible; take your annual leave early and stay home; teleconference when possible to avoid meetings. Literally do anything and everything you can to reduce your physical contact with others. If we don’t and this hits all of us at roughly the same time then more of the UK populations will die, because the NHS will have far less chance to cope.
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Did I truly start this thread so little time ago?
By 23 January 2020, China had had far less than a thousand cases, only 639. That was the day I started this thread with the words that sit at the top of every page of it. I think we have all, me included, failed to truly grasp fully how very quickly this has grown. Just a month and a week further on from 23 January the world is where it is today. Is seems like longer, doesn’t it?
Europe inc. the UK has now had 1,167 cases to time of this post. That’s already almost twice as many as the 639 cases China had as recently ago as 23 January. Even I, who clearly from my OP on 23 January suspected that this virus would be of huge consequence to the world, am, as I look back shocked at its speed of growth. It is almost surreal.
I wonder if Europe will be every bit as injured a month and a week from today as China now is a month and a week from 23 January? Especially given that our starting blocks for such a five week period sit at 1,167 and China’s sat at only 639 for theirs.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
And on a light hearted tack, I just overheard my first coronavirus joke earlier. A middle aged chap behind me in the shopping queue in Iceland was chatting to two chaps just behind him (who I presume he knew and had bumped into from the way they were chatiing). My ears pricked up when I heard him tell them that there was a case of Corona in Tesco’s (which is just down the road). The look on their faces and I suspect mine was one of alarm. He then, after having suckered us all in, and after a long moments pause said that the Fosters had been cheaper so he had picked up a case of that instead. One of the other two chaps said laughingly to him, “You bar-steward”.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Very high percentage jump in the number of German, Austrian and Spanish cases today and the European day is very far from over. I expect a very large jump in Italian cases when they issue their daily report about 6.00pm today.
At this rate by the end of the coming week Europe could well have several thousands cases from which point experience shows that the growth in numbers truly starts to take off.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I am guessing when it gets really bad in north korea they will blame south korea or trump and send of some nukes. Or secondly they will be on there knees and trump will come to the rescue demanding this, that or the other.
I’m sure if Fat Boy Kim launched a few hot ones Trump would indeed provide antiviral assistance immediately by return airmail that would eradicate the virus totally from North Korea.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I do feel the term ‘Panic’ is in general currently being over used or rather misused. Panic is the state of being ‘overwhelmed’ by fear and anxiety. Seeking to generate a level of fear proportionate to the threat is not counterproductive. Fear is a vital component to ensuring that humans respond sufficiently to a threat. Note that a typical debt chasing letter seeks to cause one to take action one might not otherwise have taken (i.e. pay up) by seeking to instill fear of a CCJ impacting one’s credit ratings and incurring increased debt due having to repay also the creditors court costs. It is typically impossible to motivate any human to take inconvenient action without instilling in them fear of the consequences of not acting. This principle of human nature is currently forgotten by HMG. The HMG message is in effect you should do this or do that but even if you don’t there will be no consequences for you worth truly worrying out.
Seeking to instil an appropriate level of fear is not the same as seeking to scaremonger or cause panic. Returning to the debt analogy – The raison d’etre of threatening court action is not to cause panic. Rather it is to identify the grievous consequences of inaction, generate fear of them, and make clear the action required to negate that adverse outcome (i.e. pay up).
The format and rationale of message re this virus should to my mind be to communicate the message in similar fashion to that used in debt recovery. In essence – Look folks there is something substantial here to truly fear but if and only if you take these actions the threat can be reduced to negligible. This will both fully motivate people to act immediately and tell them exactly what those actions should be.
Unless the truly grievous consequences of inaction and the true magnitude of those consequences is made absolutely clear then almost invariably inaction is all that will occur. Right now the HMG/MSM message is almost universally catastrophically under-weighted.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I love Subs, will it be a Yellow One? Joking aside that route is OK by me.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I’d advise sooner, Ed. The virus is already among us.
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I do feel there is too much of a misconception that it is overwhelmingly the very old with co-morbidities that have anything to fear from this virus. It is a message we often hear in the MSM and even many medics are also touting it. The public assume therefore that it is correct. Therein resides the danger of a kind always recognised by Stephen Hawking who said, “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge.”.
The true facts re age groups at risk do no support the current message coming from many medics via the MSM. Many have not bothered to look at the facts. I was shocked last night when on LBC a guest physician said that this virus has a lower mortality rate than normal flu. The presenter, the prominent journalist, Andrew Pierce, said that was reassuring to hear. But it was total bovine excrement. Flu has a Case Fatality Rate of 0.1% and the WHO are clear that their preliminary assessment is that the CFR of this virus is somewhere between 2%-3%. That is to say 20 to 30 times more deadly than normal flu.
So what age groups make up the majority of the fallen when struck by this virus? Well the WHO joint mission to China reached the following conclusions:
The median age of the fallen is 51 years old.
50% of the fallen (known as the IQR) reside between 39 and just 63 years of age.
75% (yes, the vast majority) of the fallen reside between 30 and 69 years of age.
That’s not the message being touted by the MSM is it? The MSM message is the very illusion of knowledge that Stephen Hawking highlighted as so dangerous. It leads many to think that the majority of the dead will be 70 years of age or older. Which in turn means that that those who are younger than such will not feel at risk and hence will take precautions no greater than they take each year to avoid getting flu. Probably no more than stand back when someone is coughing and spluttering. The younger than 70 are perhaps about to have their ‘Somme Moment’. At the first battle of the Somme our troops were told nothing to worry about our artillery has mashed the Hun and you can simply saunter across no-mans-land with nothing to fear. Well we all know what actually happened there, don’t we.
The false message currently being touted by many in HMG, quite a lot of doctors and the MSM is that this is hardly any worse than normal flu and only the very old are likely to fall. That is not a message likely to persuade those younger than 70 to take all possible steps to ensure they don’t catch the virus of it they do to take steps to ensure they don’t pass it on. The current entirely false message disincentivises those younger than 70 to go to the bother of taking any proper precautions; and that will be in major part the reason why this virus will spread so much faster in the UK than it might otherwise have done. To my mind there will be much blood on the hands of all those who have touted this virus as being little more dangerous than normal flu and hence only the very old have anything to fear.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
BTW the likes of Astra-Zeneca and GSK have no interest in generics usually. Both often sell products on to competitors once a compound is about to come off licence (i.e. their patent is about to run out).
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Although Chloroquine Phosphate was originally a Bayer product marketed under the Resochin brand name (and still is) it has long, long since been out of any form of patent or licence licence, so anyone can produce a generic version. Alliance Pharmaceuticals who make the Avloclor Branded CP have their UK corporate offices in Chippenham, Wiltshire. The packets I have very clearly state “Made in the United Kingdom”.
Usually that means manufactured entirely in the UK; although on very rare occasions it can mean the tablets were pressed and packaged in the UK with the base compound sourced from elsewhere. I suspect though that Alliance, a rapidly growing company, do actually produce it in the UK. I’ll bet they have been ramping production at a pace already.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Belarus, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Mexico and New Zealand have joined the party today with their first case.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
This makes sense to me from China’s reactions so far. For the record the population of Wuhan is 11 Million about 1/6th the population of the UK.
*********** NOTE the above link vanished two minutes ago. It referenced a Wuhan document and included the following narrative ****************
Official report says over 400K severe and chronic #COVID19 patients have a problem getting medicine & the new #CCP secretary of #Wuhan is very “angry” about it. So, they are admitting there are over 400K #Coronavirus patients in Wuhan? That’s new to us.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
That’s very sound advice, Ed.
Looking at the current cases across Europe (inc. UK) it is clear that by far most cases were seeded by Italy just as most in the Far East were seeded by China and in the Middle East has been and is being seeded by Iran. As regards Europe and the Middle East, I am anticipating a huge increase in both regions over the next 10 days; which is of course exactly what happened in the Far East initiated by China. The next 10 days will beyond question tell us how rapidly things are likely to progress from this point forward because that they will progress eventually is a racing certainty.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
There are reports of a runny nose and sneezing but they are rare and far less than 5%. However, a recommendation such as you suggest by MM carries some dangers. A common cold and normal flu can co-exist with this virus. Hence symptoms of such do not exclude you being infected with the virus; although I agree that in the main it would be unlikely to be dual infection. This does mean though that if you already have a cold or normal flu you might put the symptoms of this virus down to such and seek help only once shortness of breath was severe. Possibly too late for medical intervention to succeed.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I am uncertain which sites Japan are swabbing. ACE2 receptors exist in the gut also.
Ideally, rectal swabs should be used because studies have shown that such provide evidence of remaining infection even after oral/nasal swabs are showing clear. If the virus impedes the function of cilia (small hair like structures in our respiratory tract that brush upwards to clear debris from our lungs) then towards the end of an infection there would be no or close to nil virus in the mouth and nose. It is a different story in the gut. Because there is nothing to suggest this virus impedes peristalsis (the downward periodic contractions that move gut content for evacuation via the bowels). Therefore evidence of the virus would and studies confirm does, persist longer such as to be found with rectal swabbing. I’ll try to find out where Japan are swabbing.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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