@thevfmaddict
Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
@ Ed,
I have stressed before and will stress again that I, like many others, am convinced that the backstop breaches the GFA. I have little doubt that the courts will rule such and the early stages of seeking a judicial review are under way. If the courts rule it does breach and that ruling occurs after the WA is ratified on both sides then there is no question that Art62 Vienna can be both legally and morally applied. It would not be a case of us reneging on a treaty it would be a case of us having to withdraw to protect the GFA which pre-dates the WA. The GFA is of course something which both sides (us and the EU) have been vociferous in holding sacrosanct. The EU would have great political difficulty, given its position to date, to insist the WA backstop is applied once it became clear that doing so would breach the GFA.
As something of an aside I suspect the EU has no real grasp of how difficult it would be to set up a hard border in N.I. were it to seek to force Eire to implement one. This makes interesting reading.
@ Dave
I understand your position and thoughts re smuggling. But for main trunk road crossings of the N.I. border a technological solution is possible as is being set up for Calais (see my link earlier in this thread). Yes, minor road smuggling will still occur on the N.I. border. But that is unlikely to be and preposterous for the EU to suggest it to be such a major threat to the integrity of the EU & CU. One thing is sure and that is that it is unlikely to be on anywhere near the scale that occurs every single day along the EU’s southern borders. Such is indeed also how most illegal immigration occurs. How many landing points and marinas are there along the EU’s southern border? My guess would be in the high tens of thousands.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Not
I’m afraid I do not understand the relevance of needing to break Article 50 – why, what does that achieve other than politically inflaming both the DUP and the IRA? Unfortunately Irish sectarian/religious politics, have never made things easy. You talk of the Far Right as something to possibly fear, but I would also worry about somehow dragging in the IRA (Not really Far Left?). They have already set their small markers. I think as a result that I’ll avoid Weatherspoons pubs in future as their owner has recently publicly stated his position and backing as a Hard Brexit supporter. However, I think your summary of a fscking potential disaster is unfortunately correct, whichever leave option is taken. Roll on the next four years (plus) of trade negotiations just to help us forget!
Not sure I follow you there. Ed. Why would the DUP become inflamed if the UK escaped a signed WA at a later date by invoking Art 62 Vienna thereby eliminating the dreaded backstop? This seems to be the very argument being used to get them to support May’s WA. In effect – Don’t worry about the backstop we can tear up the whole WA if we want to. Such was the weasel’s (i.e. Gove’s) position almost from the start. He backstabs everyone and everything else so why not the WA.
The point that is all too often forgotten is that there will be no hard border in N.I. unless the EU forces Eire to set one up. This is true irrespective of whether there is a No Deal Brexit now or a pull out from the WA at a later stage.
I’m not sure how to interpret your last sentence. But I assume it was being sarcastic and if so we are in total agreement. It is the Trade Negotiations once the WA is passed in the HoC that will inflame opinion; certainly on the side of Leavers and in that I am sure the EU will try to screw us in every way may well p’off a whole lot of Remainers also.
Yep I think for certain that we are going to hell in a handcart. So it will only be the Green party who have remotely anything to smile about. After all, handcarts burn no fossil fuels and are eco friendly.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
The mood is moving rapidly to May’s Deal (i.e. the WA) to take us out of the EU and then Art62 Vienna to take us out of the May’s Deal. Legal advice is moving that way although many suggest that while legally viable it would politically be most unwise. I’m sure they are right. That will result in a mess which, I have not the slightest doubt, will make a hard Brexit right now look like childs play compared to it. But it gets worse.
The route to Art62 V. exit from the WA/Backstop lays in unforeseen circumstances or consequences occurring. One unforeseen circumstance is acknowledged as being that it has caused huge civil and social unrest. Yeah right ? !!! Publicise that and one is tantamount to issuing an invitation to riots on a scale equal to or greater than the poll tax ones. Talk about giving the far right high octane fuel to light fires it seems to me this gives them the matches to go with it.
I’m drawn back to the old joke that the EU was playing chess but May was only capable of playing Chequers. Personally I’m not sure the whole HoC working in unison could play a decent game of chess. The end game here is entirely predicatable because the opening and middle game were played so very badly. But it seems to me that the HoC cannot even collectively see what’s coming despite it rapidly becoming ‘kin obvious if one studies rationally the state of the board.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
You know the grassroots Conservative Party are VERY, VERY ANGRY when this video appears on the Conservative party’s grassroots website. ENJOY.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Someone just pointed out a fact that I missed. Don’t know why but it made me chuckle but it is madness personified so perhaps that’s it. In last nights vote on an extension the Brexit Minister made the closing remarks recommending to the house the Government Motion for an extension. Following such he marched into the division lobby to vote against it. You truly couldn’t make it up, could you.
The duplicity in the house is not merely visible these days but it seems to be literally flaunted with aplomb.
Oh and I forgot, the Tory Chief Whip rather than support the government position abstained. ?
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I dispute not a word that you said there, Ed. This is why I always believed it vital that May play hardball in the negotiations. Anyone who makes clear that they are not prepared to walk will always get chewed as indeed May was. The EU do fear a No Deal and would have been prepared to offer a balanced FTA along the lines of Canada ++; indeed even Tusk extended such an offer.
So, Ed, where are we today? The EU know we will pay them £39B no matter what and will accept literally anything they demand because we are too fearful to ever walk away. Human nature; and the burden to get the best deal they can for their remaining members; and the desire to demonstrate that no-one can leave their bloc on reasonable terms; all leaves no question whatsoever in my mind that we will get utterly atrocious terms during the trade deal negotiations to come. That will have huge economic and social impacts not merely on certain sectors of the UK economy but on all sectors. Such will be truly high octane fuel to enable the extreme right to light fires in the UK like never before. It was this I always feared and why I was so adamant that a clean break and short term pain was worth bearing. I believe it is inevitable if May’s deal passes that at some point we will renege on the WA relying on Art 62 of the Vienna Convention which at best is weak argument anyway. When we do the the wrath of Europe will be far, far greater than it would have been had we hard Brexited today.
I believe history is clear that a truly bad deal ultimately and inevitably results in severe conflict be that at its least social and political and at the worse military. I simply cannot condone the tactic of using the possibility of Art 62 Vienna as a means of cajoling the DUP and ERG into supporting May’s deal because such of itself gives licence to the UK subsequently reneging on the WA.
Future history I have no doubt will look back to today and wonder how our politicians (metaphorically) not having the courage to bite the bullet now are instead going down a route certain to result in a far more devastating barrage of bullets from all angles in the years to come. I severely dislike as do many here, Donald Trump. But of one thing he is utterly correct. At times one simply has to walk away not matter the problems such may precipitate because not being prepared to has far more severe consequences.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Yep I find I have to laugh also. I have never seen such duplicity by any PM or so blatant that it personifies “Yes, Prime Minster”. The Script this time – “We leave on the 29 March.”, “Yes we are leaving on the 29 March”, “My commitment is to leave on 29 March”, repeat such or similar over 100 times in Parliament or in the media. Then – “Oh just excuse me for a minute while I nip into the Division Lobby to vote for an extension”. Yes, Prime Minister !!!
So folks where are we heading? Well its Ground Hog Day of course. Unless Bercow bars it (which he can) there will be Meaningful Vote 3 and perhaps even 4. May’s deal will probably pass. Then it will be 2015 again. Open political warfare between Leavers and Remainers. The end point this time being whether we head for an exit from the WA via Art 62 of the Vienna Convention rather than Art 50 from the EU.
Cox (possibly spurred on by May and Gove although for different reasons) is already attempting to get the DUP and ERG on side for May’s deal by touting this possibility; an approach in part suggested many months back by both Gove and Mervyn King.
Frankly I suspect that following ratification of May’s deal, if such occurs, the way in which the EU will seek to gain advantage in the Trade Negotiations post Brexit will merely stoke that fire further. Heads down for a rise of the Nationalistic Extreme Right in this country the like of which we have never seen before. Does anyone truly doubt that such is where we are heading. May had to play hard these last two years and truly be prepared to walk – Any true negotiator knows that. Don’t do it or mean it you get a dreadful deal. She did not and we have. Worse still she herself refused the Canada ++ FTA Tusk offered in March 2017. What an idiot. The final trade deal that we will now get from the EU will be atrocious (and why not since they know our politicians have not the courage to ever walk so will take all and give nothing) will influence public moods. I am certain quite similarly to the way that unfair excessive WW1 reparations left Germans feeling between the wars.
I’m sorry but if anyone thinks the route we are now set on will leave us economically better off than would a hard Brexit I am certain they are wrong. Because trade with the EU from this point on given that the EU will only give us a Trade Deal totally contrary to our interests and insanely biased to theirs makes such unlikely in the extreme.
It was often said of the WW1 (somewhat unfairly) that we were led by Donkeys. I suspect that history will ultimately decide (but this time entirely fairly and accurately) that during Brexit we were led by an Ass.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
It just wouldn’t be the same around here without you, Bob. So not only is it great news for you, its terrific news for all of us as well.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
WOW at about 11.03am this morning (i.e. Tuesday) dramatic simultaneous fall off of Pound v Euro and Pound v USD. Within a period of 3 minutes a cent and a quarter off the Euro exchange rate and 2 cents off the USD rate, pretty much wiping all of yesterday’s big gains in just 180 seconds or so. Fall v the Euro continuing as I type. Take a look.
EDIT – Ah now I see that its Cox that caused it. He’s said that May’s new bits “reduce” the risk of a trap and not that it removes it.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Totally cracked up when I saw this…………………………..ROFL big time………
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Not sure I can agree totally with your thrust there, Ed. Most significant exports either way across the NI border don’t go via the minor roads/crossings. They use the major trunks. Yes, there might be smuggling on the minor routes just as there is into every minor port and minor airfield in mainland UK currently for other purposes from spliff material to human contraband. I personally don’t think the Irish flout the rules any more than the rest of us given the number of folks selling cheap cigs or tobacco in almost every pub I know.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
You must be psychic, Dave. . If anyone had asked me just before 9am this morning what the chances were of sterling putting on 2 cents against the USD and 2 against the Euro and hitting a 12 month high against it today of all days, I would have answered exactly that – “and pigs might fly”. So I guess you are right, Dave. They obviously did.
I wonder if there will be big profit taking tomorrow. No real sign of it yet as I type. Indeed, if anything the trend. although shallower is continuing when there’s usually a fall off over night. But surely there will be a significant degree of sell-off at some point tomorrow before the now totally unpredictable “meaningful vote” takes place.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Did the SLR thing with masses of other lens a long time ago (pre-Digital). Great for set piece photography in the UK such as weddings but barring such the bag (and it was a big one) was left at home far more often than not. But my Rollei 35B plus a tiny add on flash went everywhere and most of my favorite pictures were born of it. Just a thought.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Scratch the above. Now since I posted above its well over a cent and a half v the Euro and more like a cent and a quarter v the USD. I still can’t identify the cause and very little sign of major profit taking as yet. ‘kin Spooky.
Further spiking v the Euro as I type looking like a 2 cent increase v the Euro might occur by day end. But why????
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
For crying out loud !!!!!!
We are constantly told by the EU that there is no such thing as a smart border possible using today’s technologies and hence the Irish Backstop is essential.
OK then Mr Macron how the heck are you going to cope with trade at the border with the UK if there is a No Deal Brexit? “That’s no problem we are going to operate a Smart Border”. You really couldn’t make it up could you. OK Macron himself didn’t say it but look here.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
When it comes to relationships I have always found fortune truly does favour the brave. Go for it, matey, and good luck.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Did you ever look at the C3 Picasso? Nice mid height and very wide door opening. It was a great car; we had two. Its replaced now by the C3 Aircross but that looks to have similar height and access. It might be worth a look when your ix20 lease is up for renewal. You are right though the choices at that entry height are quite limited. Currently we are running a Jeep Renegade Longitude. That’s basically a Fiat 500x in wolf’s clothing. It made a change but can’t see us going for one again. We may ourselves go for the C3 Aircross next time but the BMW 218i SE Active Tourer would be my choice provided the missus finds the access suitable. Why the BMW? Well, it has a heads-up display so I can pretend to have a Missile Lock on that damned idiot who cut me up at the last roundabout……LOL
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Yep, Bob, had Motability for over a decade now as the other half’s mobility was almost the first thing to noticeably go. Like you we always go for medium high riders as they are easier for her to get in and out; not too high not too low.
The real problem I find with her having so many problems is that no doctor is ever across them all; even if they have a full list in their hands. Fortunately my medical knowledge is of a relatively high standard for a non-medic.I can usually spot errors or misdiagnosis before it causes a problem. For example, her mix of conditions causes a blood profile that in anyone else would be 90% indicative of infection. Her white blood cell count and CRP are always at 15-20% above normal range. Uninformed doctor immediately diagnose infections and I usually need to explain that they need to consider such percentage elevation as normal in her and only if that ‘recalibrated level’ is exceeded is it indicative of infection.
Despite the increasingly aged population true Geriatricians are no longer in abundance. Older folk these days tend to see loads of different specialists. Old style Geriatricians were absolute experts at considering numerous concurrent conditions because such is the norm in old age. These days most doctors, due to specialisation begin to get out of their depth when having to consider more than four or five significant conditions at once. My missus has what is known as an Undifferentiated Auto-Immune Connective Tissue Disorder. Many doctors either forget she has that condition or do not fully know what it is and on seeing that her bloods show an elevated ESR diagnose Rheumatoid Arthritis. The are always wrong. The condition is indeed rheumatoid but nothing to do with joints. In the main it is inflammation or vasculature. So yes you will see an elevated ESR but no arthritis as such.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Haven’t been out of the country since my better half’s conditions ‘avalanched’ around ten years ago. By that I mean there was a cascade of conditions some associated some not that either developed or dramatically worsened in less than an 18 month period as to fit the term avalanche. Literally, every visit to deal with one problem seemed to result also in another condition being diagnosed. These days all travel pretty much needs another suitcase merely for her various medications. I haven’t counted lately but its over a dozen different meds a day (some once a day , some twice a day and some three times a day) plus two that are weekly and inhalers as required. Haven’t quite got to needing an O2 cylinder yet but I doubt that it will be more than a year before that’s required. I just love the look on the face of doctors and ambulance crews that haven’t met her before whenever they ask what conditions she has or what med’s she is on. I keep a list of both constantly updated and several copies to hand.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I envy you, Bob. Nothing I enjoy more than freely wandering around cities with robust and long lived heritage be they in Europe, the UK or anywhere. Alas with my partner’s numerous medical conditions slowly deteriorating and her now being wheelchair bound (at least outside the home) travel is increasingly constrained. I miss it greatly.
I’ve never had any real association with the sea but seem to be drawn to water. My favorite European city is Copenhagen with Amsterdam close second. Never got to Venice and doubt I now will.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
-
AuthorPosts