@thevfmaddict
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Just to be accurate on past figures in the 2015 GE UKIP secured over 3.8 million votes (12.6% of the total). Given that 17.4M voted leave then if only a third of them stick to their guns at the next GE we would see 5.8M votes but these might be split between UKIP and Farage’s new Brexit Party. Certainly the latter once known generally to be Farage’s party would have the edge name wise on the ballot paper. Plus as I understand it he’s setting up household name individual’s as candidates with almost all of them not currently being politicians. That’s another big plus in the current climate. Finally, the distribution demographics are very different from previously. There is little match between areas that once had large numbers of UKIP councilors with those areas that voted Leave in the ref.
Finally, a hung Parliament is just that hence one doesn’t need much of a swing to change things significantly, which is very different from the swing needed when one side already holds large sway. There are already quite genuine noises of some Tory MP’s considering abstaining if Corbyn calls a vote of confidence and even if the DUP alone abstained as it might we’d have a GE anyway.
Its all to play for.
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Not so much a problem in another referendum but a much bigger problem in a GE is the Leave lobby being split. The latest poll has UKIP at 7% and Farage’s new Brexit Party at 6%. That’s a far higher total Eurosceptic vote (i.e. 13%) than ever before and will likely grow as the Brexit Party, that’s hardly off the ground yet, registers with more voters. However, the split of the Eurosceptic vote between the two parties is in no Brexiteer’s favour. The additional complication is that it would not be good if both took votes from a Eurosceptic MP from one of the main two parties and whom had a more realistic chance of winning the seat. Come the next GE perhaps like never before very careful tactical voting could make a huge difference.
All that said, assuming that the MEP elections come before a GE and given that such is based on proportional representation those elections should give us quite a good barometer of the size of current opinion and voting inertia re Brexit.
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What would you call meaningful numbers of MP’s, Dave?
I also think one must consider the personal platforming of individual candidates from the two main parties. In non-London marginals outcomes could well hinge on candidate’s Brexit credentials. A committed Leaver from either party would have an edge in those areas that heavily voted Leave. I do believe that a GE would alter dramatically the current mismatch between what the public wants and what parliament wants.
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Well spotted, Bob. But to his advantage Google soon stepped with compensation to replace his googlies.
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@Ed,
Try those Politico. Irish Revenue Commissioners Office, and some video. So where is the hard border coming from?
@Dave,
WTF ! Come on now Dave its the Remain side that bangs on about the financial consequences not Leavers. Leavers have always been more inclined to push taking back control.
What stock piles? The only area where there is evidence of some stock piling is in pharmaceuticals.
I think May would resign before she Revoked. I can’t see her writing large on the walls of Downing Street – “I, Theresa May, was here promised Brexit means Brexit and then failed.”
Lastly a Question for All
I have no answer to this and would truly like one. Why is it that in all other EU states the growing swing towards euroscepticism is mainly coming from the young. In the UK its the reverse. Can anyone explain why this is?
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Yep, usually there are just one or two big heads, like when Portillo fell in 1997 or Clegg and Balls in 2015. Come the next GE I suspect there will be a lot of household names losing their feeding place at the trough.
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Dave, do not be taken in by the GFA carp being forwarded by the EU. The backstop that the EU insists on breaches the GFA whereas what we propose does not. Moreover the EU and Varadkar have planned for, in the event of a No Deal Brexit, a soft techno border away from the physical line. Yet when we suggest such to avoid the need for a backstop they reject it. Total duplicity by the EU.
I’ve said it before it certainly is as you suggest the uncertainty that causes the biggest problems for business. Business will find its ways to cope no matter what the outcome but it needs to know what the outcome is or will be. I have not the slightest doubt that the Letwin-Cooper Act simply locks in uncertainty for a far longer period that will do far more damage than a No Deal Brexit this Friday would cause. As BMW said adjusting lead times for JIT manufacturing would cause problems for a month or so but after that no problems. The nonsense about JIT in general is carp you simply adjust for a longer lead so that the supplies arrive as always just in time. It may take a month or so to work out how long the new lead must be but after that its sorted.
My own thoughts are that May will be gone within a couple of weeks possibly by the end of this week. The Parliamentary resistance to No Deal is lessening the single vote majority of the Letwin-Cooper bill showed that. If the EU set onerous terms for the year long extension as it seems likely they will May can’t survive and I suspect that a majority for No Deal will immediately or very quickly materialise not least because the latest polling in Labour Leave seats will convince a lot of Labour MPs that blocking it will block their own re-election next GE.
The above IMHO is the way its all going but I could be wrong.
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Dave, the difference between the WA and literally any other treaty ever signed in world history except to end a war, is that it does not provide for one of the parties (i.e. the UK) the ability to unilaterally withdraw. If May’s WA goes ahead with the backstop, plus any other add-ons wanted by Labour, then May and Corbyn seek to bind all other Parliaments for the rest of this century; an action entirely contrary to our unwritten constitution. This is the point that the ERG sought to impress upon all. A future parliament could conclude that any treaty signed by May was unconstitutional and hence represented the “exceptional circumstances” that permits withdrawal from otherwise binding international treaties. Frankly the fact that such includes no unilateral right of exit makes the WA + Backstop so contrary to international conventions that such alone means that “exceptional circumstances” are inherent.
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Dave said referring to the Heidi Allen video,
You can find examples like this for any MP. The thing is if they’re being whipped they will say one thing under collective responsibility. When they can say what they want they are free to say what they believe. What about all those, including BoJo and Rees-Mogg who flip flop on the House of Lords (depending on what the HoL have decided) and trash TMs proposals only to vote for them a day later. There are very few conviction politicians about (BoJo is not one of them) and the two party and whip system discourages them. My MP – ERG member – used to be quite the rebel until he got a ministerial job. Since then he’s strictly followed the whip. A keen runner, in Parliament he backed the local council charging a £1 a head for park run. The council head is I believe a big cheese in the local Conservative Association, but I’m sure that had nothing to do with it. He is a councillor in my ward, 3 Tories standing for 3 seats. They’ll all get back in again.
I agree that all MPs are like that. Here’s Yvette Cooper doing the same as Heidi Allen before the 2017 GE. But to a large extent that was the very point I was trying to make to Bob. They are all the same and the TIGGERS are no different. They have formed into a new ‘party’ and to present a cohesive manifesto to the public will expect all their candidates and MEPs/MPs if they get any to toe the party line. There is nothing new about TIG. Its simply a group of MPs who for various reasons are disaffected both with and their own parties were disaffected with them. Soubry’s and Umuna’s voting records are so diametrically opposed (e.g re Austerity) that only their view re Brexit examples any kind of an accord, apart from the desire to remain as MPs and win a seat, any seat. It is utterly hypocritical that all TIGGERS voice the opinion that we should Remain in the EU and fight for change from within but do the reverse as regards the parties with which they won their current seats. I disagree entirely with Ken Clarke’s position but he has been honest throughout about what he stood for even before the 2017 GE. He has more integrity in his little finger than the TIGGERS have all put together.
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So let me get this right. During an extension the EU say we must elect MEPs because during an extension we remain a member of the EU. But then it seems demands that while still being a member we must have no say over the EU budget or EU trade talks. Talk about cake and eat it
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To anyone and everyone looking for the possibility of something better in UK politics: check out The Independent Group. http://tinyurl.com/y3pufbaj I have signed up and am supporting them. I am so sick and tired of the same old carp from the same old talking heads. If these guys can make a real difference, I will continue to support them. Take a look at “Read Our Statement.”
Are you having a laugh. Bob? You can’t be serious? Their current spokesperson is Heidi Allen, the most two faced duplicitous MP in Parliament and that says something. Have you never seen this?
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Slavery in the UK was never permitted but the Act of 1807 banned it in statute both across the UK and the British Empire. I’ve always thought of the whole thing as very much sleight of hand given that we effectively condoned apartheid across the commonwealth until the very last decade of the 20th Century. Apartheid in my book was simply modernised slavery because rather than enslave individuals which makes its purpose obvious one instead enslaves whole races giving a false impression that the individuals are free.
I think Desmond Tutu pretty much encapsulated the principle of that modernised slavery that pervaded the 19th century when he said, “When the missionaries came to Africa they had the Bible and we had the land. They said ‘Let us pray.’ So we closed our eyes and prayed. When we opened them we had the Bible and they had the land”.
Look at the very stern position we adopted when Ian Smith in order to preserve apartheid in Rhodesia made his UDI. Oh sorry you can’t look at it because there was none. A few huff and puffs and weak sanctions to make it look like we were concerned but no real action whatsoever.
Even Thatcher never condemned apartheid in South Africa and pretty much condoned it doing all she could to avoid having to put sanctions in place re South Africa calling Mandela and the ANC “typical terrorists”. It wasn’t until de Klerk removed the ban on the ANC and released Mandela at the start of the 1990’s that things began to change and that had nothing to do with UK government pressure because there was pretty much zero of that for a century and a half.
All I’m really saying is that while Wilberforce unquestionably had good intent in fighting for the 1807 Act and I believe the British people in the main felt similarly, as so often is the case the establishment simply followed a route that complied with the letter of the law but found its way to generally ignore its spirit. I’m not flagellating we the British people but would without the slightest hesitation take a whip to many in the establishment over the decades and centuries who in my book are fully deserving of such; and that as regards her position re apartheid included Thatcher.
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It is amazing the rose coloured spectacles with which the country view Churchill. I laud his handling or WW2 the man was the perfect fit for our needs at that time. But it is untrue to say he was trustworthy in either his private or political life. While married he had an affair with a glamorous socialite and in politics he abandoned his party twice, (Tory>Liberals>Tory), as and when it favoured his own career prospects. As David Lloyd George said to him, “You will one day discover that the state of mind revealed in (your) letter is the reason why you do not win trust even where you command admiration. In every line of it, national interests are completely overshadowed by your personal concern.”
Churchill was always a warmonger favouring intervention around the globe even advocating UK involvement in the Russian Revolution and declaring that Bolshevism must be “strangled in its cradle”. Plus of course his desire the follow WW2 immediately with WW3 rolling on from the fall of Berlin straight to Moscow. Even in 1946 before the USSR had atomic weapons he put in a memo to Truman the suggestion that the USA launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Moscow. Yep, he was one hell of warmonger. But I say again one needs a warmonger during a war and he was the ideal PM to prosecute WW2.
A lot or carp is spoken about Winnie’s view on Europe. Yes, he was in favour of a United States of Europe but and its a huge but he was quite clear that he believed the the UK should be to use his words “with Europe but not of it.” To me that very clearly reads as close links. joint projects, an FTA, etc., but definitely NOT a member of the EU or as it is planned to be a USofE.
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We are in agreement then. But I doubt the Tory MP’s are wish enough to recognise that only BoJo would be likely to stop a Brexiteers exodus from Tory Voting Ranks. I’ve seen no sign lately that any of them have political savvy.
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Oh come on VFM. You cant rewright history when it comes to chirchil. He stuck up for GB and thats it.
LOL…….. Not trying to rewrite history. I was simply trying to tell it like is was. As I said few would disagree (and I’m not one) that Winnie was the PM we needed during WW2. No-one would have been better. He was a brilliant wordsmith who knew how to boost the national spirit and give the country self belief. Sometimes that’s exactly what you need and if that individual has a basket full or two of other failings then for a while the trade off is worth it. It might be the same with BoJo.
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Yep, if you look at Churchill’s full background including crossing the house twice as well as the things he did when holding various offices of state he makes BoJo look like a Saint, truly. He was in many ways even more self serving than Boris. Perhaps most amazing was that he was booted out in 1945 after winning the war and then came back and won the election in 1951 to be PM for another 4 year stint.
He was a clear racist also and his comments during the Bengal famine in 1943 would make Tommy Robinson look like a bleeding heart liberal. He said the famine was their own fault for breeding like rabbits and that starvation of in any event underfed Bengalis was that serious. When there were conflicts between the Muslim League and the Indian congress in the 1940’s before independence and partition he is reported as having said he hoped “it would be bitter and bloody”.
Yet few can and do doubt that he was the PM we needed during WW2. Forget all this about him being in favour of Jaw, Jaw rather than War, War. He wanted to hit the Russians in 1945 right after WW2 ended and while our lads and the Yanks were in the ideal place to kick off WW3. The plan he had devised was called Operation Unthinkable and the British Chiefs of Staff had to talk him out of it.
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Ed, if the Parliamentary Tory party only put two Remain inclined choices to the Tory party their grassroots who are already starting to jump ship will vanish entirely. So whoever are in the last two will be screaming their Brexit credentials as loud as possible. Whether that’s BoJo is perhaps not that important therefore. There will have to be one credible Brexiteer in the final two. Can’t see anyone who had remained in May’s wimpish cabinet being that person. The grassroots have had it with all of them unless one jumps ship pretty quick and does a number on her like Geoffrey Howe did on Thatcher. Normally he who wields the knife never wears the crown but this time dynamics are different and s/he who has the guts to deliver the fatal thrust could well be seen as the one with the guts to play tough with the EU during the trade negotiations. The way the German economy is going they won’t have the stomach for a tough fight. Another genuinely shocking set of figures out today. Factory orders fell by 4.2% in February 2019 compared to January. That’s the sharpest drop in more than two years. The expectation was a 0.3% increase !!! New orders from the Euro area were down 2.9%, new orders from other countries decreased 7.9% compared to January 2019. Carsten Brzeski the Chief Economist in Germany described the figures as “Devastating”.
It just shows how good for one’e economy being part of the EU is doesn’t it !!!!!
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Don’t follow you there, Ed. Soros was driving hell for leather and spending big time to get us to Remain. BoJo must be jumping for joy. The No Deal block will push even more folks to back him for next Tory Leader.
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Could we be about to see for the first time ever in history the end of May before the end of April?
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I will respond re how pressure would be applied later but HOT off the press – Despite FTTP a large poll of 2,200 voters in Doncaster predicts The Brexit Party will win seat as 28%. There was also 18% who would vote UKIP. That’s how strong feelings are pro-Brexit, 46% in total, Labour was at just 27%. Labour had a 10,000 majority here in 2017. WOW. The Conservative vote is also decimated.
This poll suggests that the political landscape is totally changed already.
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