@thevfmaddict
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Dave, your are simply incorrect. When a Grandee of the Tory party, Ann Widdecombe, loved by a HUGE number of Tory Members and Voters, leaves and joins the Brexit Party standing for it in an election the wind of change is perfectly clear. Don’t worry though, keep telling me I’m imagining things if it makes you feel better………?
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SBS are not fame seekers like other SF brands. And SB man will always be a marine.
I agree 100%, Duke. What fascinated me was how Farage was respectful of such and didn’t mention the guy’s SBS background.
@Dave,
You really are out of touch with what’s occurring aren’t you. Especially when you said the Leave vote would be split. Everyone from Watson to the Guardian is fearful of the reverse. It is the Remain vote that is split with no identifiable rallying point. Come the next GE if folks want true change in Westminster will they vote for parties, even new ones like Change UK who are just putting forward the same old type of candidate ? The MEP elections are merely the springboard for the Brexit Party. Truly listen to Farage’s dialogue. Its different this time.
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LOL….Dave. The Change UK candidates are ex-Tory donkey’s just more of the same as now. NO change whatsoever.
The Brexit Party however is if anything understating the quality of its candidates. Farage introduced James Glancy as an ex-Marine. Glancy was in fact in the special forces, serving in the elite Special Boat Service. He is now a Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society, and runs a charity dedicated to the preservation of African wildlife. Compare that CV to the CV’s of Change UK’s (more of the same old) candidates.
Only the Brexit Party are preparing a party that will in the next couple of years actually drain the Westminster swamp. Truly, Dave, who else is looking like they intend to do that? Get real, matey. This is on a whole different scale from UKIP pre-the ref. That’s what has Tories running in fear. The Tories are between a rock and a hard place. If they don’t go for the Brexit that voters and particularly their own party members wanted they will be thoroughly stoned to death politically for a generation. That’s what is starting to dawn on MPs and the Party faithful who are both moving for a rules change to get May out by the end of June (i.e. change the rule from 12 months to 6 months as regards Leader confidence votes).
There is and will be no split of the Leave vote. UKIPers are moving in volume from UKIP to the Brexit Party, most UKIP MEPs have already done so. The Leave vote will be concentrated in the Brexit Party. The Remain vote scattered across all other parties from Labour to Libs to Change UK. That’s what prompted Tom Watson’s outburst during the weekend and a major article in The Guardian. Its Remain that has no rallying point.
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Want to see the quality and calibre of Brexit Party candidates? Well five more were announced today. You can listen to them and make your own assessments here.
Includes Claire Fox a darling of the Left – so watch out Labour.
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……….. One thing is it’s a big Aerospace industry area with BAE, Airbus, GKN and Rolls Royce having major factories in the constituency. I can tell you a lot of Brexiteers there have changed their minds and we were a Remain area to start with. So if anyone feels they’re not being listened to by their ERG member MP it’s not the leavers. ………..
So tell me, Dave, which ‘Remain’ leaning party will the workers from those companies vote for – (a) if Brexit isn’t sorted by time of a GE – and – (b) if Corbyn does cobble a deal and support May in getting her Brexit Deal through? My bet is that that bloc of workers will split all over the place – Lib, Labour, Change UK, Greens, etc. And where will those who want Leave rally? I’d say that any prediction even a Tory win is crystal ball territory.
As for Bell’s fame having had an effect in Tatton, I agree it did. That’s the very reason why Farage is prioritising high profile non-politicians as candidates.
You may already know that Paxman, who Voted Remain in the Ref., said this week it was a pathetic thing to do and that he is now a firm Leaver. I’m not saying he is a Brexit Party candidate. What I am asking though is could people like him win seats for Brexit if they stood? I myself am 100% certain they could and would.
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Dave, I wasn’t for one second suggesting a Farage Government might occur. I do believe that the Brexit Party has a good chance of winning seats but certainly not enough to form a government. Its just that circumstances are now such that FPTP is a hurdle that is easier to clear. If you read back you will see what I actually said that we seem likely to be seeing an end to the two party system.
I wrote earlier about the Bell-Tatton Effect when Martin Bell stood at very short notice (just 24 days) as an independent beating Neil Hamilton in one of the safest Tory seats in the country. I suspect there are a lot of constituencies where due to Brexit the siting MP is disliked even more than Hamilton was in Tatton. So ‘protest votes’ against an incumbent Westminster MP are capable of overturning even otherwise very safe majorities. Think about it. Is it not true that folks are far more angry about Brexit than they ever were about Hamilton.
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Dave, you miss the point that the Tory MPs need and know they need to appease their grass root members. That above all must be their priority or they’ll be deselected or find themselves canvassing all on their own come the next GE. This is why a tough Brexiteer must be in the last two and if one is will be voted in by the grass roots. Tory MPs are between a rock and a hard place of May’s making with her pledges that Brexit meant Brexit; that No Deal was better than a Bad Deal; and that we would leave no matter what on 29 March 2019.
Your comments re the ERG to me have no relevance whatsoever. Farage is not in the ERG and had no power re the mess that occurred in Parliament although conversely that mess gives him immense power now. Truly study closely his current rhetoric it is totally unlike his in 2015. He’s pushing the Democracy argument hard, very hard. That will resonate not just in the Euro Elections but just as much come the next GE. The Remain vote will be split come the next GE across many parties whilst the Leave vote will rally cohesively under just one The Brexit Party. Can’t you see that. Events have conspired to give Farage a very decent platform to fight a FPTP election; and even Tory grass roots are starting to rally to his banner. The old dynamics no longer exist. As I say, if this starts to dawn on MPs, especially those with narrow majorities, then No Deal will very rapidly return to their table and a fudged EU deal before the GE could only serve to fuel still further Farage’s engines and platform that democracy was abused.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
As I now understand it there is a route by which the party membership general can force May’s removal from office but it takes 10,000 votes. That wagon has only just started to role but it seems 65 local association chairs are already on-board. Give it a week or two and I suspect that the target number will be hit.
Returning to the matter of the rolling Brexit party wagon if one looks at what Farage is actually saying you will see that his rhetoric is very different from 2015. Although obviously gearing up for the EU elections just in case they go ahead his words leave no doubts that he is preparing a party capable of fighting the next GE. If May cobbles a deal which leaves us closely aligned with the EU and in a Customs Union that can only fuel still further the Brexit Party engine. Pandora’s box once opened cannot be closed. I think we are heading towards the end of a two party system for certain. Moreover one in which the Tory party is not even one of the two biggest parties. May’s mistake is that the group she has alienated most are her own party activists and without the staunch support from such any party is up the creek without a paddle. Only a hard Brexiteer has the slightest chance of re-engaging with that legion; no-one who has remained in May’s atrocious cabinet could. Tory MPs are not so naive as to fail to recognise such. My bet is that, if not BoJo, Raab will be on the 2 candidate shortlist and it seems he is already gathering both a significant team around him and funding in preparation for that battle.
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The latest YouGov poll re the Euro MEP election voting intentions by party. Such needs no comment other than the train is really starting to roll…….
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Now beleaguered car company Nissan will cut 600 jobs in two plants in Spain.
That’s on top of Ford’s announcement last month that it is slashing 5,000 jobs in Germany.
If all this was happening in Britain the media would be falling over itself to blame it on Brexit wouldn’t they. ?
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The one the light up and just say “slow daiw are fine”, but Thr ones that monitor your speed and report it on the sign, may work to slow the daytime folk down. But at night, they have the oppersite effects. It turns into a game of let’s who can score the highest. The former I’m all for, the latter not so much. As teens with cheap cars and crap suspension, are pushing their cars to the limit to impress friends through them.
Not seen that Sign Baiting but a local Dual Carriageway is Biker Boulevard or Hot Rod Heaven every now and then in the early hours of the morning. Its very much Rent a Suicide Mob and seems organised. When it takes place there are many one on one flat out races with all the others simply watching and awaiting their turn. Strangely I’m only aware of one fatality over the years but it is a run with mainly wide grass verges on either side which might mitigate crashes when they occur.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
LOL………Ed…..with the Brexit party already starting to surge that would be a clever thing to do and guarantee even more of the current MPs to lose their seats. Don’t forget what Martin Bell did in Tatton. Just 24 days out from an election he declared his intention to stand against Neil Hamilton in one of the safest Tory seats in the country and Won !!! Hamilton was despised but no more than as currently are many, many MPs in their local constituencies for ignoring their constituents’ opinions re Brexit. Stick a household name in those constituencies under the Brexit banner and the Bell-Tatton Effect stands every chance of being replicated; doubly so because it is Tory activists who are most against such a deal and many Labour strongholds that had the largest Leave votes. If May’s despised deal is made even more despicable with Corbyn add-ons then that’s even more for 17.4M to be angry about.
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No real surprise I guess but nonetheless part of the Brexit Party’s plan to demonstrate it is getting high profile candidates; under an hour ago, John Longworth, former Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, was announced as a Brexit Party candidate.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
The hard right eurosceptic Finns party just missed out on being the largest party in Finland’s Parliament yesterday with 538,731 votes, narrowly behind the Social Democratic Party who won with 545,544. However, the Finns Party Leader, Jussi Halla-aho, received the most votes of any candidate in the country. He won more than 30,000 whilst the Leader of the Social Democrats’ leader secured just 12,000. These results shocked even the Finns Party which was expecting a good result but not such a resounding one. Brussels will be shaking today because it seems likely the eurosceptic vote in the EU elections is going to be even bigger that they have been fearing. Roll on the EU elections if we must stay in until at least October. In order that we can add still further to the growing eurosceptic cohort in the EU parliament.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I personally favour what I call “Active Speed Reminder” signs of which there are a lot around here. Those Led Signs access your speed and remind you of it as you pass. I’ve chatted with folks in my Local and it seems that folks do respond to such and slow down. I would make it routine to set one up on both approaches to all accident black spots. Far better to my mind doing that than sticking speed cameras on an open stretch of 40mph road where in reality doing 45mph does not add too significantly to risk.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I have to admit that we always have several lappies around so we’re never without options here. However, I still prefer a desktop most of the time and never bin, sell or gift my last system when I do a new build. It goes into the loft as first reserve (“FR”). That FR also gets ongoing upgrades. So if a buy a new drive or gcard for my current system the old one immediately goes into the FR. Not sure though if I’m being simply cautious or paranoid. Probably the latter…..
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
The Legal Profession are heavily Remainers. Lots more business if one can add the ECJ appeal level to disputes. So who knows what enthusiasm the Telegraph’s legal team had.
As for the evidence you saw it for yourself. There was irrefutably polling evidence of No Deal being the most popular option. But the IPSO decision relied entirely on there having been none. Alas the principles of appeal do not permit as grounds for appeal citation of evidence which was available pre first instance action. In other words if you failed to use what was freely available – Tough Luck.
Re the latest polling –
The clever money is rapidly buying into the Tories achieving less that 10% share of the vote in the European Elections. You can still grab 12/1 if you are fast and that’s a terrific bet. A poll of one (Westminster) safe Tory seat had over 50% of Conservative Party members there intending to vote for the Brexit Party in the EE. As one commentator said, the Tories around the country are going to have trouble finding more than a handful of activists willing to help get out the vote.
You are correct, Dave, that Labour look like having the largest share of the vote but not as much as UKIP and the Brexity Party combined. Given that its PR and not FPTP that will mean quite a cohort or Eurosceptics to batter the EU and that will add even more weight to the total Eurosceptic lobby already anticipated from and building in other EU states. Plus its pretty damn certain that the European Parliament will not only have to face Farage again but now even a Rees-Mogg too……..LOL
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Considering that the Brexit Party hadn’t even fully launched yet when this You Gov poll was undertaken, while the TIGGERS had been grabbing lots of media publicity for their Change UK; Chukka, Soubry and Allen et al must be sick as pigs:
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Bojo found guilty of
lyingunrecognisably distorting the facts to the public again! LinkIPSO ruled it was wrong for BoJo to claim there was polling evidence that a no-deal Brexit was the public’s preferred option. It was IPSO that was making a false claim. Shame on the Telegraph’s legal team for not shooting IPSO down in flames. I could have done that in seconds.
Boris, writing early in the New Year was relying and fully entitled to rely on the Opinium Poll that had just been published. The BBC even published it here. No Deal thrashed every other option. It was therefore entirely correct for BoJo to claim there was polling evidence that No Deal was the preferred option. Because there was!
I trust you will, Ed, accept that on this occasion at least, BoJo was correct and very unfairly and incorrectly maligned by a clearly
biasednegligent IPSO._______________________________________________________________________________________
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That suddenly makes me think of something that had never occurred to me before and to which I don’t know the answer. I wonder if anyone here does?
Under PR is it close to or indeed totally impossible to ever have ‘Independents’? I assume it must be because no one individual is ever likely to get a sufficient percentage of the total vote to ever win a seat? Conversely if that individual for some bizarre reason got such a high percentage as to qualify for more than one seat who would be second and third on that individual candidate’s list such as to fill the other seats? It seems to me the only way one would ever get Independents in the EP would be if someone won a seat with a major player and then subsequently went Independent? Interesting.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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