@thevfmaddict
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As I said I can’t see parties working together. Would the LibDems give way to the Greens?
Strategic cooperation between centre ground parties has happened before, and Farage’s party is a common enemy. For example I could easily see the Lib Dems not putting up a candidate in Brighton.
To what end? The TBP was not really challenging there in the EU’s nor would ever be likely to do so in a GE. The Greens could handle TBP in that constituency all on their own. Take a look.
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As I said I can’t see parties working together. Would the LibDems give way to the Greens? I doubt it in a battle for Westminster.
BTW when assessing total Leave vote re Remain vote in the EU elections I am still certain the current results would translate to a Leave win in a referendum. Why? Well, all EU citizens could vote in the EU elections and there are millions of non-Brit EU Citizens in the UK. They are likely to have voted for a Remain party and not for the Brexit Party. They could not vote in a Referendum. Plus far more Brexiteers were disheartened by what has occurred the last three years and said they would not vote again. The TBP success could re-enthuse them. When all of such is factored in my bet would be that we are still around 52/48 to Leave were a re-run to happen.
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I would have thought that the truly BIG issue now is FPTP. Haven’t seen the stats run yet but I would guess that had this been a GE based on FPTP then TBP would be the largest party in Westminster. Not least because it performed extremely well in the Labour heartlands. This must be a serious matter for concern for both the Tories and Labour.
Dare the Tories chose anything other than an ardent Brexiteer as Leader? And dare Corbyn call a vote of confidence immediately a new Tory Leader is elected? I believe anyone who thinks that the strength of feeling evidenced in the EU elections will not endure until the next GE is out of touch. This is feeling that has endured since June 2016 and has merely boosted by events since then. FPTP unlike before now works in Farage’s favour not against him. Yes, come a GE, the ‘Remain’ vote might be able to beat the ‘Leave’ vote if the Remain vote could be consolidated under one party but that isn’t going to happen is it? Labour, the LibDems and the Greens are hardly ever unlikely to give ground to each other. They couldn’t even agree on a unified candidate for the upcoming Peterborough by-election. No chance that could do it across over 600 seats in a GE. The Leave Vote now is super consolidated under one party, TBP, and that’s what counts under FPTP.
The die is surely cast, is it not? The Tories take us out of the EU by Halloween or TBP comprehensively takes out the Tories and a huge swathe of Labour MPs come the next GE.
For those interested, a regularly updated list of each Tory candidate’s declared supporters can be found here it might be a place to regularly watch over the coming months.
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I don’t disagree, Duke, that the situation is bonkers for both sides.
I imagine the EU will want rid of all Brexit Party MEPs as quickly as is possible. So my guess, if there are as many of them as the polls suggest there might be, there’s no chance of any extension being granted past 31 October.
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The last pre EU election poll from Opinium predicts a similar share for the Brexit Party although has the LibDems doing less well and the Tories not as bad.
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The last YouGov poll before the EU Elections has the Brexit Party with a percentage share almost twice that of the LibDems and both Labour and the Tories continuing to dive.
Most interesting is that if this poll proves correct then The Brexit Party could secure enough MEPs to become the the largest single party in the entire European Parliament. Quite possibly thanks to Guy Verhofstadt’s total arrogance in the BBC fly on the wall documentary. Thanks Guy……………LOL
And don’t forget there are usually a lot of shy right voters in polls so the real Brexit Party share may be even higher.
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I feel I must respond to Dave’s quite blatant personal attack on me. I made quite clear that when I started this thread that I was interested in what had caused the sudden hour’s rise in sterling. In no manner could I have been spreading pro-Brexit propaganda given that I had linked to a site where the daily, weekly and monthly performance of sterling versus the USD and Euro can be viewed. The trend is plainly down so why, if I was promoting Brexit propaganda, would I ever have provided such a link. All I was interested in was what caused the sudden hour’s surge. That it then turned out to in all probability to have been May’s offer I did not know when I initially started this thread.
What ensued next was two direct personal attacks on me; one from Bob and then one later from Dave. I had personally attacked neither of them such as to justify their personal attacks. It’s a short thread go re-read it. I stand on that clear evidence.
I take no offence at, Ed’s posts. He unlike Dave and Bob, played what he perceived to be the ball and not the man. Ed’s words were hard but legitimate tackles and not patent red card fouls like Dave and Bob who clearly played the man and not the ball.
I note that in the Brexit thread Dave apologised to Duke, but here he goes again launching unprovoked personal attacks. Which begs the question whether his apology to Duke was genuine.
@Ed,
Ed, you are right that donations under £500 do not need to be traceable. They could be from anyone. The Brexit party has not specifically requested that donors keep their donations under £500 in order that they cannot be traced. Other campaigns, such as the People’s Vote Campaign, have explicitly requested and forced donors to keep donations at or below £499 so that they do not need to identify where their donations come from. See here. I accept your inference that the CIA could be funding the Brexit Party with sub-£500 donations but equally so could Soros or other pro-EU foreign nationals be funding pro-Remain organisations, could they not?
I would note one that the Brexit Party has been charging entrance fees to its rally venues which obviously covers venue costs. Plus, registered Brexit Party supporters pay £25 which is far more than the membership fee of the Labour Party so it is not hard to see where the Brexit Party funding comes from. It truly is a party funded by those who believe in it. One might say truly that most Brexit Party supporters ‘have skin in the game’ and put their money where their mouths are. I do wonder how many Remainers have donated £25 to support what they believe in. I suspect very few.
I am all in all somewhat angered that other peeps have dragged this thread down the Brexit route when it was not started with Brexit in mind. And then, having dragged the thread in such direction those peeps then felt entitled to launch into unprovoked personal attacks. Such has no more validity than were I to accuse Dave of spreading Remain propaganda next time he mentions German or French beers. Its utter nonsense.
For heavens sake, Bob and Dave, everything in this world is not about Brexit even though you seem to believe it to be. When I want to say something about Brexit it will be in that thread. I have no need to use other threads as a proxy and have never sought to do so. Please do not drag other threads in a direction which is different from their intended direction, such that you can somehow justify to yourselves entirely unprovoked attacks by you on others.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
I’m disappointed – I thought this post was all about the identity of the rumoured off-shore PayPal donors to Farage’s election fund!
Yep, shame the electoral commission could find no evidence of dodgy donations when they raided the Brexit Party offices today. Its killed off a topic for debate. But then again when you are charging entrance fees for must rally venues you don’t need dodgy funding. They pay for themselves. Big one at London’s Olympia tomorrow night and that is a big venue. All sold out at £2.50 a head.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
May 21, 2019 at 11:24 pm in reply to: BoJo's Tory Leadership Chances boosted by Labour Supporters #33519I guess one can’t mention the Tory Leadership without it being infected by Brexit. But Brexit totally aside and forgetting it even exists I can well see why Labour Activists would fear BoJo versus Corbyn in any event.
I guess these days Big Personality-No Substance beats No Personality-Big Substance most days of the week as probably Trump showed in the USA. As I said though I really don’t get why they feared Rory Stewart more than all the others after BoJo. I am totally unimpressed by him and to me he projects neither personality nor substance.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Frankly, Bob, the post had nothing to do with Brexit when posted. It was by chance that the solution had its seems something to do with it. I’d have been just as interested in what caused the hour’s trend reversal if it had been a new discovery of oil in the waters around the Isle of Wight or Gold in Guildford. Likewise I’ll be looking at live sterling fluctuations long after Brexit is settled because I’ve always found they are a great indicator that there’s real news about somewhere. It was the sharp hour blip that interested me.
Don’t go looking for reds under the bed, Bob, when there are none. I promise you matey that if there is something worth posting on the Brexit thread I’ll post it there. BTW did your Gran teach you remote viewing? Because Given that you pledged that you would never to visit that thread again recommending that others did likewise how could you even know I haven’t posted there for a couple of days…………?………..that’s a self inflicted GOTCHA if ever I saw one…………..? Feel free to do a face palm, Bob.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Puppy 5.6 will run on your laptop for sure. You need the non-pae iso. You can get it here.
There’s a picture and more info here.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
May 19, 2019 at 12:21 am in reply to: Tory Leadership Candidates prepare to woo their colleagues………. #33462No idea how it was produced but you could be right. Don’t know who first produced it either. Perhaps it was Penny Mordaunt given that she wasn’t included……………??
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
May 18, 2019 at 5:21 pm in reply to: Tory Leadership Candidates prepare to woo their colleagues………. #33450On reflection perhaps Mrs T was very much a hermaphrodite politician. Most definitely a woman but often when things came to the crunch having more balls than any man in the HoC. Can’t know for sure which way she would have moved re Brexit once the ref result was in but one thing we can know is which ever way it was she would have terrified the other side.
I often didn’t agree with her positions about a lot of things but when it comes to being a true Leader I’ve not seen the like of her in my life time and she had my full respect for that.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Old Wives’ Tales, Grannies’ Wisdom, etc., are in reality the sum total of hundreds of centuries of anecdotal evidence passed down throughout those years. It is often eventually shown that such do indeed have some scientific basis.
Cold Liver oil, an old treatment for Rheumatoid Arthritis, was eventually shown to have within it a compound that inhibits Cox2 just as do the latest NSAIDs and appears less prone to cause side effects or promote adverse cardiac events than synthetic Cox2 inhibitors. So, I never discard out of hand any Old Wives’ Tales or Grannies’ Wisdom ‘cos more often than not there is a truth of some kind at the heart of them
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
May 17, 2019 at 9:35 pm in reply to: Tory Leadership Candidates prepare to woo their colleagues………. #33429Typical Bojo, an inveterate well-documented liar showing that he is completely two-faced!
Sadly those epithets are probably true of the vast majority of MPs these days and come to think of it were certainly true also of BoJo’s hero, Churchill. I think when May leaves and we have the full initial list of candidates it will have as many runners as the Grand National, although most will fall at the first few fences.
Two things struck me though looking at that Photoshop fest. Rudd looks better as a man and Gove looks better as a woman………….how bizarre.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
A Conservative melt-down is almost certain as Farage will split their vote. It remains to be seen if it also translates into a Farage walk-over, and whether his very right of centre views are saleable at a General Election as opposed to a fairly meaningless EU election.
I would normally agree totally that EU elections have previously been meaningless; a free protest shot with no consequences. However, I’m not sure that such is true on this occasion for two reasons. One of the reasons being is itself two part.
The two-part reason involves Tory MPs’ attitudes. A huge Tory rout could panic Tory MPs in two ways. Part One – They may be inclined to consider No Deal which is what over 80% of party members/activists wanted and in order to drag back the huge number of them who have gone over to the Brexit Party. Part Two – Is that many Tory MPs are now genuinely considering Boris as one of the final two Leader candidates because drastic times call for drastic action. Boris is who the party members overwhelmingly want. Quite a few MPs are it seems thinking he is the only one who might be able to drag back the deserters. I guess what I’m saying is that this time the EU elections are probably not meaningless because they will massively impact Tory MPs’ attitudes and probably who they chose as a Leader going forward.
The other reason is simply to do with human nature. Come a GE folks rarely vote for a ‘No Chance Candidate’ even if that individual would be the one they personally would choose. A massive Brexit Party vote in the EU elections could in many voters minds make all Brexit Party candidates appear conceivably electable. So I get it when Farage talks of the EU elections as a springboard. They could well be.
Recently I have heard MPs from all parties say in interviews increasingly that the old political divides no longer apply. I’m sure they are right. What we don’t know yet and probably won’t until the next GE is whether those old lines are just fainter or have been totally erased. If it’s the former and they are just feinter then I agree the chunks Farage is biting out of the Tory vote will probably let Labour in as biggest party and hence probably able to form a coalition government. However, looking at the latest poll from Wales, a massive Labour Heartland, it seems Farage is now taking huge chunks from Labour also; and remember the greatest Leave votes were in Labour seats. So who knows? Despite Farage taking huge chinks out of the Tory popular vote it might be that in a GE it is more Labour seats that are captured. To me, it is not inconceivable that despite everything that has happened the Tories end up remaining with more seats than any other party; especially with the honeymoon boost of a new leader.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Duke, I have no specific gripe with you. Nor do I disagree with a lot of what you just said. There was sniping on both sides and perhaps who started it is immaterial. That said there are a couple of observations that I believe I am entirely justified in making.
Perhaps the time to first jump in wearing your moderators hat was immediately after Dave’s fully personally insulting rant which I quoted above, was it not, on reflection? Rather than let it pass and then instead berate solely me later. Dave’s, rant was direct, and explicitly personally insulting was it not? My saying to Dave subsequently, put your money where your mouth is, was extremely mild by comparison was it not? And in any event it was merely shorthand for requesting of him to prove his declaration that I was making all up that I had been insulted. As I then demonstrated I irrefutably been directly attacked and personally insulted and by him.
I note and have great respect for the fact that in your post, Duke, you apologised to me for causing offence if you had. I note equally that despite Dave’s astoundingly personal attack on me, which I quoted above, his apology for such was merely to you. I know, Duke, that you don’t have the time to read back but if you did I assure you that when I it has appeared I have caused offence to any peep I have always apologised promptly. And you have my word that had I ever indulged in such a patently severe and personal attack on anyone as did Dave on me I would never seek to shirk from full admission of such and would apologise to that person fully and totally in the public domain. I believe such is required by common decency.
Finally, I see this site as what it is or at least should be. A forum, a debating chamber. I am not of the opinion that folks are always so entrenched that they never change their views. Hell, once upon a time I was so entrenched in favour of the death penalty that I would rather have faced such myself for simply holding that belief rather than change my view………LOL However, my view did eventually and has changed as a result of what I have learned. For example in US states where the death penalty either remains of has been reinstated murder rates have risen. In states where it has been abolished it has fallen. I still believe murders deserve the death penalty but I now recognise from the figures that having such a penalty available actually results in more people being murdered. Who knows why? Perhaps the thought of spending one’s whole life in prison is more of a deterrent than thought of a simple lethal injection. The point I’m making is that debate, no matter how entrenched and immovable various parties views appear to be, is still worthwhile. The trick though is surely to ensure that one understands the difference between opposing arguments and ‘an argument’, if you see what I mean. Perhaps that is what we should always remember here. Or to put it differently we should all adhere to the spirit that is inherent in the saying often attributed to Voltaire – ‘I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it’. If we all remember that even if we ardently disapprove of what the other party says we must still respect their right to say it, then we won’t go far wrong will we?
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And here we see the problem and why we get nowhere as a nation. VFM, you and your kind are all about stopping things and coming up with fantasy scenarios that could never be agreed. At least the pseudo economic arguments have stopped in the face of reality and we’re down to personality politics and naked idealism. We are now told that everyone voting Leave knew they were agreeing to No Deal even though that notion was so toxic at the time anyone mentioning it would have been ostracised. We would get a fantastic deal, it would be easy as the EU needed us more than we needed them. UKIP said it could be done in an afternoon over a cup of tea. The German industrialists and French farmers would be knocking on Tusk’s door demanding it was so. Dogs that didn’t bark. VFM everything you have predicted that will get your cause over the line has failed. You are just an echo chamber for whatever Brexit faction you decide to get behind today. As one fails you jump to another, the one that is gaining headlines so you can get on the next band wagon with your mates. These factions are all totally bereft of any ideas that will actually get you where you want to be – outside of the EU. They throw you and your kind some red meat and you eat it up and bay for more without looking where it’s come from. When will you see that real compromise is what’s needed for the sake of the nation and not an economic disaster of a No Deal, especially if that’s gained by annoying Brussels into doing it? The Westminster mathematics means that factional blowhards on all side get a disproportionate say (and in some cases £££) but they cannot persuade anyone else to their way of thinking, so here we go again – impasse. A Corbyn – May deal may not be an ideal world but if it moves us further on you would have thought Brexiteers would be glad to get to the next and most important stage, the real deal. But no, it’s now about changing the constitution as well as leaving the EU now! Listen to Farage, listen to Trump – you know VFM, the Trump you vilify. Farage moved on to attacking the press on national TV today, the “commentariat”. Ring any bells VFM? Will we be the 51st state of Trumpland where huge lies are the story of the day and if you’re caught out just tell another even bigger one. Blame everything on others, the opposition for sure and especially Johnny Foreigner who probably is here illegally. Look at the road you are going down, really look at it and where it leads, it isn’t made of yellow bricks road and there is no rainbow. There may well be a wicked Wizard or two though.
There you are folks. Tell me am I imagining things? That is full of direct personal attacks on me is it not? Yet, Dave (ricedg), would try to have you believe I am making it up that I was personally attacked. I trust, Duke, will now heavily rebuke Dave as he did me. At least he will if he has any integrity. It takes unlike some it takes a lot to make me lose my rag, but how dare, Dave, having personally attacked me in such ranting fashion try to suggest I have not been personally attacked.
I think I am so very angry because although I disagree fiercely with Dave over Brexit, I always had a lot of respect for him. And to see it shattered not by such rants as that I quoted but the inferred suggestion that I was making things up I fell totally taken in by the guy. Such tactics are not worthy of any respect.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Money where your mouth is, Sir. Can you then direct peeps to any direct personal insults issued by me? You are fully aware that I can identify several direct insults from you to me. Why not be a man and admit it? No wonder you want people to stay away and not look. Shame on you, Sir. I truly, truly expected better of you.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
As a mod I have to. Especally as YOU as well a others, keep having digs, and border on peronal insults at times. That’s why I have to view this boring thread lol… If you (and others) wasn’t so childish in some of your responces, I wouldnt have to look. After all its ment to be an adult debate about an important topic between adults.
Duke, there is a hint of victimisation within that post. You specify me but then provide anonymity for “the others”. Can we have some parity and balance, please? So please identify who “the others” are.
I note also that in your most recent post you again accuse me but offer no evidence. I assure you I have in this thread lodged no personal insults whatsoever. That said I can identify numerous posts where the reverse was true and I received direct and specific insults. I trust that if I collate and reference them, Duke, you are prepared to publicly rebuke them as you appear happy to do with me in; my case even without evidence.
Crickey, how would you react if local Trading Standards arrived on your premises and criticised you for having rats in your kitchen but when you disputed that there were any they said they hadn’t got the time to check but that they are there. Such is a preposterous approach is it not?
May I suggest that if you have not the time to check if any evidence actually exists before publically lodging allegations against a peep but then when challenged re such, simply say that you haven’t got the time to check; then patently you have not got the time to moderate reasonably, have you. Fair comment?
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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