@thevfmaddict
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Met Office has it as having hit 33 where I am (4 miles NE of Heathrow) at 4pm today. It felt more like 37. They are predicting 24 at midnight. I predict zero sleep due to such. Roll on Autumn ; love its colours love its temps.
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…………………………………………. Almost no one is looking to replace their CPU with one of the same type because they hardly ever break
Ain’t that a fact. Its a damn shame that that AMD and Intel don’t make Kettles………..❗
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Look at what we used to hang or transport people for, it didn’t stop the crimes happening did it? These people used to be killed in public so there was no doubt how nasty your end would be. They still went ahead.
Not disagreeing, but adding context, Dave, the last public hangings were in 1868 – in those days you either stole food or starved. A life of crime wasn’t a lifestyle choice for the lazy b*stards like it is today. You didn’t steal to support a drug habit ( well heroin was around, but not to the same extent across all classes, ) you stole to survive. I err on the side of bringing back the death penalty, but if and when mistakes were made, were they not honestly made, then the liars, hiders of evidence, concealers of DNA that would exonerate the charged, would face the same penalty as the wrongly accused. That would give you a focused legal system that was a disincentive to crime. I would also lose the soft touch prison system the do-gooders have installed – you break the law, you suffer the consequences and would not want to return. I realise that is a harsh standpoint, but something needs to be done, the system just ain’t fit for purpose. Conditional to UK Citizenship, incoming migrants would also need to understand that they are welcome here so long as they continue to be law-abiding citizens ( and would sign up accordingly ) because the UK is preferable to back home. If they break the law ( no I’m not talking speeding here, but rape and murder, paedophile, groomer, sex/people trafficker style law breaking, ) they are sent home to suffer the unwelcome consequences.
I am 100% against the death penalty unless self administed by some perp who cannot face the fact that the Life Imprisonment Sentence s/he was given truly means LIFE (which it should). The reason I am so against it is that in US states that have reintroduced the DP the murder rate has actually gone up after the reintroduction.
Returning to Tasers someone I was chatting with last night on that very subject, ex-military, said he thought that the Taser is best thought of as a “stand-off baton”. It hits one just as hard as three cops might with their real batons and keeps you down the same as those three cops sitting on you. I’d never thought of it like that but I guess its true. He said both carry risks of injuring an innocent but as he saw it neither was worse than the other. Then he added that in his book though if someone is wielding a bladed weapon with intent a double tap with a 9mm Browning is fully justified. I told him he was showing his age and that these days its a Glock 17 and he’d still have one more round left in the mag after the double tap than he’d have had with a full Browning. He just shaked his head and grinned.
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There are of course many, many more instances of the over use of other methods of restraint than the Taser which have resulted in, shall we say, “unusual accidental deaths”. So its swings and roundabouts as always. I have for some time been coming round to the belief that the general issuing of Tasers carries more benefits than risks. All that this mornings incident did was to provoke me to raise the matter for discussion.
With knife attacks both terror and non-terror related on the increase I would rather see a few ‘accidental’ Taserings than a bladed nutter running amok a little longer than need be while armed back-up is awaited. For me its a little more about giving the Police the tools to protect us rather than tools to protect themselves, if you see what I mean. Once upon a time the Police had weight of numbers as a tool but now all too often its a single or couple of bobbies with the next officers five minutes or more away.
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+1
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Looks like Dave was correct in stating that the Liberal Democrats were on the uptick. Their win in Brecon and Radnorshire gives warning to the hard Brexiteers that other parties will strategically withdraw in the face of a common enemy. (Plaid and the Greens did not contest). This makes many Conservative seats vulnerable and is also a warning to Labour that some of their seats in the North-East could be at risk due to the Brexit party’s presence. However the Unions are starting to become very vocal in their case against a hard Brexit which perhaps tempers that risk. Bottom line BoJo the mendacious American clown suddenly has more problems with less options and an early election could be fraught with risk!
Not a bad result for the Tories at all losing by just 1,425 votes given that May had saddled the constituency by making then re-stand the very MP who, due to his conviction for fraud, had caused the by-election to take place. Notable is that if the Tories and Brexit Party had reached a pact and stood a single Leave candidate he/she would have won more votes than the LibDems and Labour combined. It follows that if the Remain parties ‘pact’ in certain constituencies forcing the Leave parties to do likewise then the result suggests that Leave is in the ascendancy. Having said that, as the Tories stood a convicted fraudster, realistically we can read very little from this by-election because we can have no idea how much that impacted voting.
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@Dave
I must admit I am increasingly bemused when folks say that “we” negotiated a deal or that there was a Withdrawal Agreement (although I admit I do myself use the term WA as shorthand for what May arrived at). The truth is of course that “we”, neither Parliament nor the People, ever negotiated nor agreed anything. In the main it was until published a behind closed doors arrangement committed to be little more than May and Robbins. I find the word “we” somewhat offensive and in effect a falsehood on the part of the EU. The UK, neither Parliament nor the People ever reached an agreement with the EU.
As regards the £39B one must remember that any future budgetary commitments made by the UK prior to the Brexit Ref/Vote were inherently linked to the UK being a member and benefiting as would all other members from that EU expenditure. To me it seems preposterous that we should be expected to foot the bill when no longer in receicpt of any of the benefits that are supposed to flow from such. Metaphorically, to my mind if we will not be receiving “the goods” then I see no moral obligation to pay for them.
Lastly I note everyone talking of the current fall in sterling but it is like nothing compared to other falls we have experienced while in the EEC/EU. Try 1980 to 1985 Sterling fell from 2.45 USD to 1.04.
@Ed
The swing back from LibDems to Labour will dent the LibDems but not be enough to save Labour from defeat. I agree with Alastair Campbell – Labour is unelectable while Corbyn remains.
Not carefully BoJo’s emphasis. He is being adamant that he rules out going for a GE before 31 October. Clearly establishing that if such occurs it is because of others trying to thwart Brexit. However, there is no question he is already conducting an Election Campaign in his UK tour. The plan is clear if one looks at all the markers. Take our Labour while they are still saddled with JC.
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He can’t smash anyone until we’re out, he’s not trusted enough. Do you think Farage will let him get away with that? ………………………………….
Dave, this is why he will not try to call a GE himself. He wants to keep heading firmly for a No Deal by 31 October and the sole reason he doesn’t get there to be Parliament (i.e. not his fault nor lack of effort on his part). The GE that results will see him saying all he needs is the majority required to get it through. That will be enough for a huge chunk of the former deserters to return to vote Tory. Plus he doesn’t give a monkey’s if some seats are lost to the Brexit Party because Labour will lose at least as many. All he needs is to be the Leader of the Largest Party that gets him back in; so his calculation has, shall we say, the capacity to deal with a margin or error. After all the Brexit Party and the DUP aren’t going to side with the SNP, Labour and LibDems, are they? So even if he doesn’t get an outright majority he’s still in pole position.
Forget the LibDems. If Labour go all out as Remain then Labour will recapture quite a few voters from them.
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I’m certain BoJo means what he says but not for the reason it first seems.
His plan is to force Labour to go heavily Remain and call a No Confidence Vote which he (BoJo) will hopefully lose. He knows he can smash Labour at the ballot box while Corbyn remains leader. So he wants a GE asap. But as if forced to not of choice. By holding the No Deal line he forces the likes of Hammond and Grieve to vote No Confidence aiding the loss he wants – and – by holding the No Deal position he wins back the Tory faithful that had deserted to the Brexit Party. This is a BoJo master class in political manoeuvring. No matter the buffoon act the guy is clever as hell. You don’t win a scholarship at Eton (yes, he won his) and then get the degree he got at Oxford if you are a fool.
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Eire’s Electorate, Economists and Political Commentators are starting to turn on Varadkar over his Brexit Backstop position, calling the backstop fraudulent and saying that sticking to it will trash the Eire economy. I say that backlash is only just starting.
Watch it ramp up more and more through August and September as Eire realises that BoJo politically has no option but to hold the line and will do because the Brexit Party is at his heels ready to obliterate the Tories if he folds like May did. Equally, get your piggy-bank and every contingency fund you have ready Germany because sticking to the backstop means you’ll be emptying it for the massive bail out Eire will need if its a WTO Brexit. Greece will look like small change compared to it.
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The ‘inter-dependence’ was indeed cited as a means of preventing wars when the project was started in the 1950’s and was at least to some degree both credible and of merit in that decade. However, extrapolated to consider its merit in the current situation is to imply that if the N.I. backstop is dropped then somehow war in Europe becomes more likely. Which is far from credible.
To some degree when I hear Remainers use the above argument I am perplexed because it seems to defeat their own position. Surely Remainers argue that in or out of the EU the UK will still be inter-dependent on EU states. What I am saying is that in this century states are substantially inter-dependent irrespective of membership of a political project. Indeed look around at your tech-kit. Are we all not already dependent on many far east countries? The world is very, very different now from the 1950’s. I simply do not believe that it takes the EU to maintain peace in Europe. Moreover I do not believe that when push comes to firm shove the EU sticks to its rules and doctrines. Euro rules were ignored and smashed to bail out Greece.
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VFM I understand what you’re saying but the result will be no different. If our leaders can be mad enough to purposely hurt our own country economically, why isn’t it tenable that any other country would? We don’t have a monopoly on cutting off our own noses……
The simple answer is because the motivations are entirely different. The backstop or non-existence of one does not directly impact Germany either way. On the other hand its existence impacts the UK directly; and as shown on multiple occasions May’s WA cannot pass while it remains. Put another way we might be prepared to cut our noses off for our own sake but will Merkel cut her nose off for Eire’s or the EU’s sake? The EU is already preparing plans to manage the NI border ‘away from the border’ in the case of a WTO Brexit. In other words they are preparing the ‘alternative arrangements’ which they say are not today possible.
I believe, as I suspect BoJo does, that on this occasion if we hold the line the EU will chose the May’s WA minus the backstop option. What convinces me that will happen was Barnier’s comments. When he said the UK was seeking to fracture EU unity he made the slip of revealing what he himself had concluded was a real possibility. Remember also that of all EU states Merkel has over the last six months given more hints that she would be prepared to re-open the WA than any other EU leader. Rather than us now on a collision path with the EU my bet is Merkel will be on a collision path with Macron. Forget the other EU states it will be those two that decide if the WA is re-opened although Veradkar will exert some influence. I suspect when push looks very close to coming to shove he will side with Merkel. Better for Eire to drop the backstop than to become a begging bowl state reliant on massive EU financial support to even survive.
Anyway that’s only how I read all this currently. We must all wait and see.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
We’ve heard all these arguments before, the dogs that never bark. It was German cars, French cheese and Italian Proseco back in the day. The EU will protect their core principles and if they take a hit they will suck it up. Isn’t that exactly what the Brexiteers say they will do for the UK? Out whatever the cost? It’s all one sided propaganda and always has been. BoJo knows all this very well and those supporting him would do well to google “The terrible art of the candidate is to coddle the self-deception of the stooge”.
I both agree and disagree with your opening tenet. The argument is similar but not identical because it now exists in a fully evidenced different environment. Germany is now far more vulnerable than ever before; of that there is no doubt. So for that matter is Merkel’s finger tip grip on power. To saddle Germany now with bailing out Eire (a load it could once easily have carried) is quite probably something Merkel would move heaven and earth to avoid. Would she put EU unity on the backstop that far ahead of Germany’s current needs? I’m not sure. After all what is the alternative? A WTO exit where no backstop exists anyway.
Dave, the point I was making was its not just BMW any more. Its the trending of the whole German economy that pressurises Merkel right now. That is a very different dynamic.
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First time ever i think I agree with Barnier.
Can’t help but agree with Barnier that BoJo is trying to split EU Unity; especially between Eire, France and Germany. If it’s a WTO Brexit then the EU will need to dig deep to bail out Eire; and without the £39B from us either.
Germany as the EU’s ‘main banker’ typically has to be the main one to fund bail-outs. German industrial figures again today were very poor. The last thing it needs on top of impending recession is to have to bail out Eire. This will cause considerable friction between France and Germany; and leave Eire worrying if they will when it comes to it be bailed out? In many ways BoJo is in a far stronger position than was May because he is striking at the point where Germany is already vulnerable due to their industrial downturn. May, even if she had ever had the stomach for a fight, did not have that advantage.
Question – Can Germany really handle its own impending recession; a considerable loss of sales to the UK; having to help fill the £39B shortfall; and bail out Eire – all at once? I think not. Germany will be looking to drop the backstop and thereby get the WA through. France won’t be because it gives them the edge they want in Fishing negotiations and Eire will be running around like a headless chicken facing decimation of their economy in the event of a WTO Brexit. As I see it and as I suspect Barnier has recognised also, EU unity is at its most vulnerable ever.
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This article (written yesterday) sums up the position with Sterling. It depends very much in Brexit and if Boris gets gobby about No Deal, down it goes. I’m off to Berlin in 4 weeks time so hopefully they’ll be on summer holidays and it can at least stay where it is. Apart from a day trip to St. Ives, I’ve not been west of Truro for a long time. A mate / colleague lived on Roseland peninsula and I used to visit when working in Truro. Beautiful part of the country. I’m glad we’re eating more Hake now, I prefer it to Cod but only used to see it in Spain.
Don’t worry Dave its continuing to climb today.
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Well the money markets seem to like the Boris win. Pound climbing against the euro and the USD.
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There are always two sides to a coin. I have mixed feelings about the recent constituency boundary changes. It certainly makes sense to make each constituency of the same size re electorate numbers. Such is not controlled by government but by the electoral commission. But the recent changes do provide advantage to the Tories. Surely the constituency borders could have been manipulated such as to equalize sizes but have neutral bias.
If there is a consensus on this forum I think it is that we all agree that PR is what is really needed. The sooner the better.
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Where did I say we were more democratic than the EU – you put words in my mouth. I in fact stated that we do NOT have true democracy in this country. When we joined the EU we joined a club, as club members we participated in the constitution and in a political manner our elected representatives were supposedly there to represent our interests and behave politically by influencing the MEPS from the other member states. Instead people like Farage just acted in a thoroughly objectionable manner and generated zero good will and got zero cooperation. I can on my own no more kick out our Government than the UK can on its own kick out the Commission. All I can do is to try and influence my MP. Politics is the art of the possible, not the impractical.
WTF…… Are you even reading posts before you reply? Where did I even suggest you were saying we had more democracy in the UK. Point it out if I did. You were saying there was no difference and I was the one saying that at least in the UK we can get the heads of government out if the UK electorate want to which we cannot in the EU.
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The more distant is removed the seat of power the less there is democracy.
OK so you accept that you are promulgating a falsehood when you wrongly state that the EU Commission cannot be removed. If you want to bang on about democracy then examine why it is a completely busted flush in the UK. ‘First pass the post’ results in my views never being represented. My views are worthless in my constituency where any braying idiot with a public school accent is certain to be elected. Even were I to have my views represented they would soon get overturned if the Newspaper/Media clique ganged up against it. Much as I dislike Trump, he was right to point out the malign influence of the media and their ability to overturn the will of the people in the style of “It was the Sun wot did it!”.
WTF …… Where do you get that from? I was promulgating an absolute truth. I was explicit that “we” could not remove the commission. Not if every man, woman, child and goat in the UK wanted them out. Cameron was totally against Junker being appointed but what happened?
I reject your arguments about there being no greater democracy in the UK than the EU. That is surely untrue. Apply the same test to both the UK and EU. Patently if every man, woman, child and goat in the UK wanted our government out they would be out under any UK system even FPTP. But as I said if that same overwhelming UK unanimity was against the EU commission it could/would not. The difference is clear and stark.
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Your analogy with the Civil Service makes no sense. The Civil Service cannot take us to war, cannot pass laws on knife crime, on benefits on taxes, etc. Only our politicians can and we can vote the Government out. But this is not so in the EU. We the UK to a man may be ferociously against any EU president being appointed (indeed we were re Junker) but we cannot stop such. Note the ‘to a man’ because only then does the loss of sovereignty become truly clear. Not even the entire population of the UK in unanimity can protect the UK’s best interests while in the EU.
Think also of the numerous demonstrations at Parliament over the years.. How many could have afforded to travel to Brussels to demonstrate there about any matter. The more distant is removed the seat of power the less there is democracy.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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