@thevfmaddict
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There is some truth about there being a lot of nut jobs at the London ER protests. I know two of the Met’s finest who say a large percentage are on drugs or drunk. But that is always the way at large London protests. You’d get the same if you started a protest because some chocolate bar had been reduced by 10% in size. Its the “any old excuse to cause mayhem” crew. We in The Smoke know its the way. But I don’t tar the whole ER movement with that brush. Bob’s right there are a lot of genuinely concerned children out there although I suspect that if what they fear comes true it won’t be them but their children that bear the brunt. I’ve always believed that the Great Filter of Fermi Paradox fame is ahead of us not behind. So I’m not closed to the idea that perhaps all civilisations ultimately destroy their planets and get wise to the fact they are doing it far too late to avert it.
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Your last line has it Ed. Boris wants the “deal” to fail, he has always wanted a No Deal. We. Are. Doomed.
I’m not so sure that he ‘wants’ a No Deal rather he knows he needs one because that is the only thing certain to put the Brexit Party out of the game once and for all.
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Not sure of the point you are seeking to make, Bob? The title of the piece you linked to is explicit – “Paramilitaries Are Surging Again in Northern Ireland. And it’s not because of Brexit” and includes the following text:
‘But while the international media has brimmed with dire warnings of the consequences of Brexit, in Northern Ireland talk of the supposed return of the paramilitaries sounds disconnected. That’s because they never really went away. Official police records suggest their presence has been on the rise since 2007—years before any talk of hard borders, backstops, or customs posts. The cause of the problem is far more closely linked to deteriorating conditions in Northern Ireland itself rather than the United Kingdom’s impending exit from the European Union.’
Are you agreeing that Brexit has nothing to do with it? I’m confused.
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With the size and growth of India that was always on the cards in or out of the EU. But as India grows that gives us more opportunities to ourselves market to them.
As for the rabbit in the hat we will have to wait and see what it is. However, I like many, even in political circles, are pretty sure there is one but remain baffled what it is. If he’s truly revealing it at conference he is clearly confident that by then it will be too late to be interfered with one would imagine.
As a marketeer I have been looking at the election messages in proposed and live ads. From a marketing perspective they are perhaps the best offering I have ever seen from a political party. Yes. they are promises that may not be kept but hell that’s always been true of many ‘firm’ election commitments made by all parties, isn’t it. For example,Labour – Out of the EU FoM will end BUT NOW EVEN BEFORE WE ARE OUT we’ll open the door then times wider.
Still can’t get over that new Labour position, Did Screaming Lord Sutch gift it to them as a plan in a sealed envelope only to be opened long after his death? Because their is no question that it is Monster, Raving, Loony. One must wonder how strong is the Labour Leftie Bubble if activists living within it even begin to think that policy is saleable to their core voters? The young will also know that with such an open door policy the property markets will flood such that the chances of them getting somewhere to live will be even harder and its hard enough already. Talk about alienating groups you are relying on for support.
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If the EU wouldn’t listen to us why then would any other country in the world?
Dave, I would have thought that was very easy to understand but it seems from your words you do not understand it.
If we remained in the EU then the EU would listen to us but have no reason to pay particular attention because we would obviously do whatever it said; having demonstrated that we had such a void of confidence in ourselves and a clear belief that we were totally reliant on the EU such that plainly we would never leave no matter what they chose to do. While in the EU and with trade policy, foreign policy, etc., increasingly being decided by the EU for all of its member states the rest of the world would increasingly know it should deal with the EU and not its individual member states because they increasingly would be void of any autonomy in any significant matter. Its while remaining in the EU that the world would have less and less reason to ever listen to us.
However, outside of the EU we, the fifth biggest economy in the world, would have full autonomy on all important matters trade, foreign, etc. Therefore the world would need to talk to us direct.
Hope that helps you grasp that which are clearly the inevitable realities of being in or out of the EU.
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I do agree that No Deal was not the Leave case during the Ref. But equally it might well have been easier to achieve what the Leave prognosis was had May not gifted the order of discussion to the EU at the start and generally played whatever hand we had as badly as it could ever have been played. The reality though is that we are where we now now are like it or not and the landscape is very different.
I cannot see that the original Remain argument about being at the heart of Europe helping guide it is any longer viable. Once we have demonstrated that we will never leave as we would have were we now to remain our voice would no longer need to be listened to. That’s what I mean about where we are now being different from pre-the Ref vote.
I equally cannot see also that being in any form of a customs union or single market over which we had no say as a third party country would allow us to gain any real benefit from having left. So that option to me appears as impotent as remaining.
No Deal is now as I see it the only option. Yep we will take a hit short term. But a third country FTA along the lines of Canada +++ truly seems the best option to me from where we now are. One thing is sure the EU is more reliant on us as an export market than it ever was on Canada so we hold as least as strong negotiating cards as they did indeed probably stronger. The need for the EU to gain FT access to our markets asap is also more urgent than it was to gain FT access to Canada’s so setting up a Canada +++ style FTA should be far quicker.
Funnily the above arguments were not mine but those of a staunch Remainer I know who said for him the Rubicon has now long been crossed and there’s no going back. He would now vote Leave not because he believes that was the best option pre-Ref vote but because the Rubicon having been crossed he sees No Deal as is the only route forward from where we are now. I’ve not spoken to him this week but I suspect that given his view that were we to now Remain we would have no credible voice I suspect he would not differ significantly from Boris re use of the word “surrender”.
What of the Backstop? I simply cannot see that inherent in the GFA was ever an obligation to remain in the EU, Customs Union or Single Market in perpetuity. I also do not see the troubles returning to N.I. under any circumstances. I do not say such flippantly because I have very considerable skin in that game. My two first born have lived in County Antrim for over 20 years now; my first wife having married an ex UK squaddie, an Ulsterman, after we divorced and moved ‘home’ with him almost immediately. Having lived there since before secondary school age my two boys, now in their thirties consider themselves Ulstermen and unsurprisingly have strong accents to match.
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Dave, I wasn’t suggesting you were ever a Labour voter. I was addressing solely you suggestion re swing between election called and election vote. The point I was making was that the new Labour stance is only ever likely to alienate many of those who stuck with Labour in 2017 because it said it would honour the Referendum result and that FoM would end.
Don’t even go near the question of language. Leavers have been insulted is so many ways over the last three year it would be impossible to list them all. And if its so bad to use strong language why did the Labour party sing its usual Red Flag anthem last week which includes:
“Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer, We’ll keep the red flag flying here”
Or the LibDems ever chant – “TONY BLAIR CAN F**K OFF AND DIE” at their conference?
I think “surrender” and “humbug” are mild by comparison.
And just for good measure some quotes from John McDonnell who complained re BoJo’s language:
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Remember how many points TM was ahead last time?
Oh BTW, Dave, I forgot to reply to those words.
Everyone agrees that Immigration was a key factor in the Leave vote. Labour retained many of its core voters in 2017 because in its 2017 manifesto it stated that it would honour the Referendum result and that Freedom of Movement will end when we leave the European Union (!).
Truly, Dave, how do you think the new totally open door policy voted for at the Labour conference last week, a policy far worse even than EU Freedom of Movement rules, will go down? My thoughts are that it was a political suicide note or at the very least the discharge by Labour of both 12 gauge barrels into their own feet. It amazes me that Labour are so inept not to recognise such. Even two staunch left leaning Remainers I know and who are ultra keen on EU Free movement are literally horrified at Labour’s new stance. A stance which is that that anyone on planet Earth can walk straight in and get benefits and voting rights the very second their feet touch UK soil. Is it not true that movement-wise the effect of this new Labour policy is even worse than if Turkey, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Nigeria, the Sudan, the Yemen, etc., etc., all joined the EU at the same time. ‘Even worse’ because even if those states had all joined the EU simultaneously then their nationals would not have been able to claim benefits and have voting rights the seconds they arrived. What rational individual in any impoverished state would not set sail for the UK instantly. Truly, the Labour Policy is bonkers, is it not?
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Time for a Brexit Summary I guess.
Parliament – We can’t decide, it’s to important. The people must choose.
The People – Leave.
Parliament – Wrong choice.
The People – Ah so we don’t live in a democracy then. Now we get it. Bring on an Election so we can vote in those who will honour democracy.
Any problem with that folks?
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We are, as Dave suggests, in uncharted waters and the answer surely is 42 with no-one really knowing what it means. However, I would argue that that uncertainty derives not of numerous vectors being unknown but in all probability just one.
Where once GE’s in the main hinged on a few swing seats while true Labour and Tory heartlands were givens we are now in a whole new landscape. On that I believe we probably all agree. Some previously secure Tory heartlands will probably turn Orange and some previously secure Labour heartlands turn Blue or Turquoise on this occasion. It will, as I see it, be the extent of those new trends which holds sway. Again I suspect on this we are likely to all agree. So what vectors are predictable if any?
I simply do not see organised tactical voting fully endorsed by parties’ ever occurring or any pf the three established English parties stepping aside to give those on the same side of the Brexit debate a clear run at a seat. Not least because it would cause too much anger in local associations. Just look at how Harman’s local party have knee-jerked at her standing for Speaker. No local association wants to fell anything other than fully represented.
I strongly suspect that Farage will be king-maker. But not via the number of seats the Brexit Party wins but via the number of seats where he chooses to field a candidate. The extent to which he chooses to undermine the Tory vote in Tory seats will be critical. Unlike the Tories and Labour he doesn’t have long established local associations to placate and can chose without fetter. He has already said he won’t fight ERG held seats and hinted he will not fight any seat where the incumbent was identifiably a Brexiteer. So where will he choose to fight? Surely he must focus on heavily Leave voting areas. To me suggests that Labour will be by far hit hardest simply because in the main it was Labour constituencies where the Leave vote was highest. Moreover those seats are areas (such as Wales and the NE) where the locals would never vote Tory in a hundred years so the Tories lose nothing or very, very little if he adopts such targeting.
Put differently while on the Brexit side just one person, Farage, effectively controls where major tactical voting can or is likely to occur conversely on the Remain side it is only ever going to occur on a significant scale if literally tens of thousands of party activists consent to it. Getting agreement on that scale is almost as remote as picking next weeks winning lottery numbers.
So, yes, I do agree with Dave that we are in unknown 42-Land but what meagre signposts as exist suggest to me that the Tories will remain the largest party. And that is what all polling consistently continues to suggest. It is surely only by how far they will be the largest party that is the incalculable. Will it provide sufficient numbers to constitute a working majority for Boris, with possibly the support of the DUP and Brexit Party MP’s that might be elected, who knows? But that IMHO is solely where the core unpredictability resides.
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No problem with that, Dave, whatsoever. But given events, and discarding Cameron as he is no longer in the running, it is very notable that despite the SC ruling Corbyn is still seen as most dishonest. The problem JC has is that his views as being anti-EU were so very long standing and known that he’ll be forever seen as dishonest. Long may he reign at Labour.
Starmer made a statement yesterday that will long come to haunt him I suspect if he ever becomes leader. When he learned that Cox had told Boris that the protogation was lawful which in the event it was not he said Cox should ‘consider his position’. Of course as a QC and then as DPP he will know there is an evidence base of him getting things wrong at times; all lawyers do and at times are trashed by the bench. Crickey, even the most eminent of HC benches has just been trashed by the SC hasn’t it?
Roll on the GE or a Referendum; regarding the latter I anticipate an even bigger margin for Leave if that happens. Folks just want the first decision respected and that it be got on with. The public in general will be furious if they have to go through everything again and even staunch Remainers I have spoken to don’t like the ‘keep on voting until we get the decision we want’ approach.
On a lighter note I’ve never liked Jo So-So or her position re Brexit but I warmed to her on Monday as a person. When hearing that Thornberry had likened the LibDem’s fixed position to that of the Taliban, she was very quick witted and said that could not be so or JC would have invited the LibDems to a fringe meeting. That is wit of the highest calibre. Funny and getting a dagger thrust in at the same time. Bravo, Jo, bravo.
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There’s an interesting snap poll here taken yesterday by ComRes after the SC decision. I have to say some of the data surprised me.
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We really must consider Boris Johnson’s action in context. Until the SC Ruled no-one knew what was and was not unlawful, did they?
Certainly a High Court bench which had included the Lord Chief Justice, Lord Burnett of Maldon, the Master of the Rolls, Sir Terence Etherton, and the president of the Queen’s bench division, Dame Victoria Sharp had concluded BoJo’s prorogation was not unlawful. Therefore I can see no basis upon which Boris Johnson could ever be deemed to have known he was acting unlawfully if even those three very senior judges did not even believe that he was.
I am not defending BoJo simply because I am a Leaver. I am looking at the facts objectively and as they are and simply cannot condemn any man for not knowing that which even the Lord Chief Justice; the Master of the Rolls and the president of the Queen’s Bench division of the Administrative court did not even know. I have read the SC judgement in full and note that while the SC hold BoJo’s actions to have been unlawful there is not the slightest suggestion within the judgement that the SC was of the opinion that BoJo would have known he was acting unlawfully.
Coupled to such is of course that BoJo was aware that John Major had prorogued Parliament for a much longer period for political purposes without legal challenge. Therefore it was surely far from unreasonable for him to conclude that prorogation for political purposes was entirely permissible.
I have one rider though. If Geoffrey Cox gave BoJo advice that in his opinion such prorogation as BoJo was considering undertaking would be unlawful then I too would be calling for his head. Going directly contrary to the advice of the Attorney General would be a deliberate act of impropriety. If however the AG told him it would be lawful then I can see no basis to allege impropriety by Boris.
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Don’t be silly. The Supreme Court just gave BoJo the excuse he needed to fight off the Brexit Party. Errrmmmm…………….they do say Cummings is a brilliant Chess Player. Was this a sacrificial gambit, I wonder?
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It seems to me that it plays very well indeed into the People versus the Elite narrative. Can’t wait to see the next set of Voting Intention polls; they will give all of us a handle on such. The other parties can run but can’t hide from a GE forever.
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Sorry, I read your post too quickly. As you know Aitkin ‘saw the light’ and is now a Deacon in the Church of England. I guess that Abbot had a hard job finding any real Christians in the Labour party.
Strange that about Christians in the Labour Party isn’t it; because after this week’s raft of crazy policies they are going to get crucified at the next GE just as if they were. I kind of think that Labour’s policy must now be – “No matter how inept the Tories are we can do better.”……LOL
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It all makes no sense to me. The Debt part re student loans is the amount loaned to students which it is projected will never be re-paid by those students.
As far as I am concerned that’s no different in reality from having added the same figure to the Education budget because that is the effect of such is it not? Education for which there would have been no charge.
Obviously the figure must spread over the number of years before a student debt is written off if one wants to calculate the additional ‘Education Budget’ per year.
I hardly see there has been any ‘cooking of the books’ as such because it was always out in the open.
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I think we are ruled by a bunch of juvenile idiots adhering to outdated and outmoded procedures. Most of whom do it either for personal aggrandisement or back-handers. We need a written constitution and proportional representation before you can say that we live in a democracy. We also need a way of weeding out parliamentary cretins incapable of making decisions fit for a modern world.
I agree totally.
As regards your previous post – No I didn’t forget to mention that ‘voting pairing’ was cross party. I assumed that assumed everyone knew that. When I said that she couldn’t find a Labour MP for ‘the role’ I was referring to the role of godfather to her son; which as far as I know does not have to be cross-party…..😋
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Actually that’s probably why government IT projects always crash and burn. They bring in experts who have not the slightest idea how things work in the civil service or of what civil servants think and need.
When I was taking briefs from companies and government agencies for audio or video productions the most valuable tool I possessed was my tape recorder. I’d question folks half to death recording everything. Not only to ensure that when scripting we knew what the client wanted but also more importantly how they thought. Getting a real handle on that is vital and if you don’t the result is absolutely certain to fail to fulfil its intended purpose.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Oh BTW an interesting piece of Abbot trivia is that her son’s godfather is the ex Tory Minister Jonathan Aitkin of perjury fame who was at the time Abbot’s voting pairing. Guess she couldn’t find a good upstanding Labour MP for the role.
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