@thevfmaddict
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@Ed
Apparently 2019-nCov differs so much from other coronaviruses that it logically forms a new sub-genus. The Wet market was closed before we knew much about the virus and seems to have been the epicentre from which proliferation flowed. It was and remains in part all the Chinese had to go on.
Yes the virus shares much in common with known coronaviruses like SARS but it also differs very dramatically and may equally be of Bat origin. There are very substantial sequences in its make-up that are like nothing we have seen before.
This paper submitted for peer reviewed journal publication is heavy going but still worth a read. You can download a pdf of the full paper at that link.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Best you research the Fermi Paradox with Google. But in short in rough and ready fashion – Why have we never made contact with another intelligent life form because we should have given the number of planets capable of supporting life? Is there some barrier – The Great Filter – beyond which intelligent life never manages to pass such as it to ever make contact with other intelligent life forms. The question is that if there is a Great Filter are we alone in ever managing to have passed it or is it still ahead of us?
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Not sure we can ever be fast of foot enough to deal with this one, Ed.
This quy’s twitter feed is worth following. He knows his stuff and his background qualifies his comments as highly reputable.
2019-nCoV is unlike anything ever seen before. It is a new genus and its middle sequencing is unlike any coronavirus seen before. It mutates/evolves at a very fast rate. The RNA sequences of 2019-nCoV isolated from 6 patients from the same household are different from each other (Lancet), powerful evidence of the virus evolving rapidly. It seems that it cannot be excluded that this virus was engineered as it seems unlikely to have occurred recently at random.
However, this virus may be an RNA virus; that is, a virus that has RNA as its genetic material rather than DNA. RNA viruses have a high mutation rate which allows them to change properties very quickly. Heck we’re dealing with a Shape Shifter…..LOL
The current growth rate in infected individuals is dramatically exponential. If this doesn’t go pandemic on a scale greater than the Spanish Flu of 2018 then I’ll eat my hat (after disinfecting it first of course).
I’d like to see the actual specifics of the current deaths. Did most die of the secondary bacterial pneumonia that is the most frequent and common complication of such respiratory viruses? If so then percentage deaths per infected individuals will ultimately be less with this than with the 1918 Spanish Flu which occurred in the pre-antibiotics age. That said the total numbers will be higher because the world population is far, far greater now. At least 50 Million died of Spanish Flu.
As regards secondary bacterial pneumonia – It is just a thought but many here are entitled to a free pneumonia jab because of their existing conditions and if you haven’t had one it may be wise to have one immediately; it can’t do any harm.
I am now making all provisions to go out as little as often. Though my fears for myself are low. My own immune system seems to be startlingly fast of foot against respiratory viruses. I’ve not had a cold or flu for over 30 years despite often being surrounded by those with them. However, my other half wouldn’t stand a chance so I don’t want to bring home a fatal present.
As an aside – For those familiar with the Fermi Paradox I wonder if the the powerful dynamics of evolution, which ultimately lead to intelligent life developing, also inevitably lead to the evolution of a biological organism that wipes it out? I’m not saying that 2019-nCoV is it because some people are surviving 2019-nCoV. I’m simply hypothesising – Could it possibly be that the Great Filter if one exists is actually biological and derives quite logically of the very same ingenuity of living organisms that led to intelligent life evolving in the first place?
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
………… Based on released Chinese data and a back of the envelope calculation about 30% of those infected will require intensive care, and about one in twenty of those infected will die. …………….
Clearly if those needing intensive care don’t get it then the death rate will move up very considerably from one in twenty. Most countries’ capacity to provide intensive care is little more than is required in normal circumstances. A major terror incident in London alone often comes close to swamping London’s capacity. Its a total guess’timation on my part but I would be flabbergasted if even 10% of those needing intensive care were to ever get it if this virus to take off in the UK in large numbers.
@Richard
I cannot see it being stopped by containment; most experts are very doubtful that it will be. Therefore there are only two possibilities. Either a vaccine will be developed and that will usually take a year or so or it burns itself out. It burns itself out when those infected have either developed immunity or died; that typically takes less than a year. The Spanish Flu of 1918 infected a third of the world’s population and people traveled far less than today so think of a third of the world’s population as likely to be the minimum this time.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
OH SHIT – 2019-nCoV is now known to be infectious during its incubation period unlike SARS and Ebola. Infected people are infectious before they are even showing any symptoms. Containing such viruses is close to impossible. Forget checking folks temps at airports. Doing so means nothing. Put simply it is now close to certain this will be a massive world-wide pandemic.
Engage Pray Mode immediately…………..
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
To complete your post, Ed, “….and nothing compares with the ingenuity of viruses to find a way to thrive in a new biological environment.”
Incubation period is now known to be about two weeks with this one. So checking symptoms of people who have been in risk zones when they return to the UK means diddly squat unless they picked up the virus about two weeks or so before leaving China. The same is true in China. The cat is odds on to have been well and truly out of the bag long before all these city lock downs.
Currently in China death rates are about 26 out of 800 diagnosed. Picking up the infected 774 before they die means nothing. The figure we really need is the survival rate of those diagnosed. Only once we have that will we know how deadly this one really is. As yet it could still potentially be 100% with those other 774 being already on the way out. I’m waiting to hear of someone who was diagnosed and survived. That said early survival rates can be very misleading. Survival rates are initially higher before any serious pandemic truly explodes. In the early days each victim can receive the best possible intensive supportive therapy which can help. But infected numbers during a big pandemic eventually swamp a state’s capacity to provide such intensive care and then folks survive of perish pretty much solely on their own bodily fortitude.
If this does explode one’s best bet if at all possible is absolute personal lock down. Make sure you have all you need to stay at home without going out for the longest possible period and if you must go out avoid crowded places quite literally like the plague.
I’m off today to grab all the ‘long life milk’ and other long life perishables like the part baked bread you can buy. We already have a totally full freezer and tinned supplies to rival a mini supermarket anyway. Just need to max to 28 days my other half’s prescription medications and we can shelter at home for at least a full month if we need to.
@Bob
You are right, Bob, that the older among us are more vulnerable if infected. But equally if one is retired with no need to go out to work one is far more able to stay home almost constantly for a long period and and thereby reduce the chances of getting infected in the first place.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
My other half always says women are better at multi-tasking than men. I;ve been looking for a good reply, found one and now I’m now ready for her the next time she does. I’ll simply tell her to – sit down and shut-up. I’ll bet she doesn’t manage to do both…….😀
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
For anyone interested the BBC are running a Live Updates page here.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
You’re right about the face-masks, Ed. If it comes here full NBC suit and respirator it is then…..LOL
The trouble here will always be public panic. The slightest colds or sniffles and GP practices along with A&E Departments will be swamped with nervous multitudes; and that overload may well in reality kill more than the virus ever does in effect constituting a Denial of Service attack on the NHS.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Have to agree with you regarding screws, Bob. Before anything ever get thrown away (especially old PC’s) I scavenge all screws from it (and stand-off’s in the case of PC’s). Nothing annoys me more than finding I’m one screw short on a project.
Having said that my better half always says the Almighty was one screw short when he put me together………LOL
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Have a great evening, Richard. You deserve it, its your birthday………….😀
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
There was an ABBA tribute band playing is a local pub recently. That was pretty loud along the High Street. You could hear the drums from Nando’s.
I’ll get my coat.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
@Bob,
Often forgotten as being probably the LOUDEST band ever live is Slade. Equally forgotten is that they had 6 (yes, six) Number 1’s and 16 top ten hits. On stage it TRULY was a case of ‘CUM ON FEEL THE NOIZE’. Your ears felt they were physically being hit with multiple jackhammers. I was genuinely close to deaf for hours after. Seeing them live once was enough…………❗
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
CarGuru is my goto site for car searches. If you scroll down the screen on the left is an Emissions option. So you can set your Emission limit, your budget, pick makes you like, how far from your home to search, etc. and then hit search and you’ll have your list of all available options.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
You didn’t say what operating system the PC is running? Given its vintage I presume it might still be Windows 7. If that is so then make sure its the 64bit version because if its the 32bit then adding extra ram will do not good and you are maxed out already; any more will not be seen.
TBH if the guy’s use is pretty much WP/DTP and given that it already has an SSD plus a spinner for storage then any thing you add to it may not even be noticed by him in normal use. So it might make sense to start managing his expectations in advance to avoid disappointment.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
As far as I know Graham there are no comparison studies of Neomag (Magnesium Glycerophosphate chewable tablets) and Magnaspartate (Magnesium Aspartate Dihydrate powder). However, there is evidence that the aspartate has better bioavailability than oxide or citrate supplements; and less laxative effect than citrate. All in all I would consider the aspartate powder and glycerphosphate tablets equivalent re bioavailability and unless you suffer a chronic gut problem like IBS it probably makes no difference which you are one. Both are on the NHS Drug Tariff and GP’s can issue NHS repeat scripts.
The big differences are that the powder is less expensive and that the powder is POM (a Prescription Only Medicine) as far as I recall while Neomag can be purchased OTC without a script. So if you need the powder your GP should issue repeat scripts and he/she can’t say go buy it yourself. There are also no local political cost reducing drives to deal with either. The powder is on the Brent, Hillingdon and Harrow CCG’s Unified (Local) Formulary so your GP will get no flack for repeating it.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
That’s terrific news Graham. It sounds like the infarct was in the main due to platelet aggregation (i.e, blood clots) rather than general atherosclerotic narrowing of your coronary arteries. That is quite rare and so you hit the jackpot, matey. Because it means your coronary arteries are manageable predominantly pharmacologically. Truly delighted for you.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Pretty much all Pharmacokinetic studies (i.e. studies of the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion of a drug, vitamin or compound, etc.) are conducted in young healthy adults. Its the only way one can get a worthwhile baseline for comparisons and which is not biased by various mixes of adverse conditions or interacting medications that might impact the kinetics. Its only once one moves to Clinical Studies which demonstrate the efficacy of the introduction that active treatment groups are introduced. This is especially so with Mg+ because its almost never tested for until a patient presents with problems in which Mg+ levels too low or too high might be implicated. Too high levels are very rare and usually only result from a long standing genetic conditions which is typically picked up on in younger life.
For completeness; along with Pharmacokinetic and Clinical Studies you will also find when researching the medical literature, Pharmacodynamic studies. These studies look at the effects of the agent on the body to determine its mode/means of action and the optimal dosing window within which optimal beneficial effect is achieved without provoking side effects. It might surprise you to learn that there are many drugs in common use but which in respect of we still have no idea of exactly how/why they work. This group even includes Paracetamol and Metformin which is one of the mainstays of the treatment of Type 2 Diabetes. In short we know what effect they have but don’t know exactly how they do it.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
Neomag is Magnesium Glycerophosphate. Magnesium Gylcerophosphate is what Harefield use when supplementation is needed and is what my other half has been on since 2014. There were once several presentations of M.Glycero. available and still are; but the only one now left on the Drug Tariff (i.e. what GP’s can prescribe and repeat after hospital initiation) is the chewable Neomag. Its about £45 OTC for 50 and most doses are three a day so about £90 a month if you are not getting a script.
Magnesium Citrate in all forms is almost as bioavailable as M.Glycero. but is a mild to moderate laxative so may not suit some patients. Just had a fierce battle with the local CCG that wanted our GP to move her a cheaper citrate. Only won it because she also suffers IBS meaning a laxative was not ideal.
The most bioavailable Magnesium is that contained in foods so focusing consumption on foods containing it is advised.
Foods which contain magnesium:
Green leafy vegetables (e.g. spinach and kale)
Fruit (figs, avocado, banana and raspberries)
Nuts and seeds
Legumes (black beans, chickpeas and kidney beans)
Vegetables (peas, broccoli, cabbage, green beans, artichokes, asparagus, brussels sprouts)
Seafood (salmon, mackerel, tuna)
Whole grains (brown rice and oats)
Raw cacao
Dark Chocolate
Tofu
Baked beans
Chlorella powderFinally, cut out fizzy carbonated drinks. These deplete magnesium.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
As an aside I always think Nicolas Parsons when I think of N.Park. Do you recall the large graffiti that was on the roundabout to the north west of the hospital for years – It read “Nicolas Parsons is the Neo-Opiate of the people”. That was back in Sale of the Century days and I knew a Consultant who told me he was certain he knew the two medical students that did it.
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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.
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