[The VFM Addict]

According to the BBC of the 115 UK cases to date; 25 in London and 17 in the South East.   Which pretty much means that London is likely to have Community Transmission chains going in all direction across it by now.   There’s no question in my mind that London will become the epicentre of the UK’s epidemic and become it overwhelmingly and very soon.   Time for SWMBO and me to batten down the hatches for a while, me thinks.

 

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

PLEASE NOTE

For those who are still under the impression that this is just a bad flu the WHO estimate is now that the Case Fatality Rate is 3.4%     Flu kills far less than 1% in the UK.     Please start taking this very seriously, folks.

If you deteriorate to the point of needing hospital care it is 15%.    And if you reach critical between 33% and 50%.   I say again please start taking this very seriously, folks.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

Iirc, polecats stink. Had one got through my Uncle’s chicken coup and it took one or two and killed every other one, just for fun I guess. This was in the late 40s and chicken still fetched premium prices — my Uncle immediately reached for his 410, but never managed to find out where it lived.

Back in the day about 40 years ago I was an avid claybuster.   Most of the crowd I shot with were 50 to 60 from 100 on “Crossing Pigeon” which is the sporting clay equivalent of Skeet.   So quite a capable bunch.    For fun one weekend we decided to leave the 12 bores to one side and see how we faired with our .410’s at 25 clays.   We all laughed at Byron who was first up busting only 6.   But in the event that was better than most of us who managed only 4 or 5.   .410’s are great ratter guns but good for little else unless it is pretty much standing still or only a couple of feet away.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Its a Catch 22 there, Lee.  If there’s virtually no-one around now then its impossible to know if anyone has an issue with the change occurring today.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Reports in the press this morning that a new more aggressive strain has now been identified in China.  There’s nothing like good news, is there !!!    My hunch is that it may be that strain that is circulating in Italy; pretty much as I suggested yesterday.    If so then Italy has seeded much of Europe with “Covid-19 on Steroids”.    I do wonder if others may be beginning to question their conclusion that I was panicking and scaremongering rather than simply telling folk the facts in their best interests so that they prepared.    Certainly HMG wasn’t being upfront.

Indeed even now on rational calculations using available facts and data, HMG are still declaring the worst case scenario to be a half or a third of what it is could well be.   I hope folks are waking up and might at last seek to prepare in earnest.   I’m prepared psychologically and logistically as far as humanly possible.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

And to put a black humour smile on everyone’s face try this.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Ed P wrote:

…….  Btw I think Bob said that such masks do not have filters on their exhaust. Mine does, it may not stop aerosols leaving but would certainly stop any droplets.

Bob is right, the valve in basic N95 masks typically has no ‘filter’ although some do.   However, there is typically no straight line airflow through the valve or the valve is on the side of the mask.   Hence droplets which leave the mouth or nose by cough or sneeze on an initially fast and straight trajectory will not reach another person.   Their speed will mean they will impact the valve or mask instead which are so close.    So you are right also.

As an aside – Pressurised Inhalers for Asthma eject their flow at similar speed and in a similar initial flat trajectory to a cough or sneeze.   For this reason most of the output of those inhalers is moving too fast to flow round the 90 degree turn at the back of the throat and as a consequence hits the back of the patient’s throat.   Spacing devices such as the Volumatic when when fitted to those inhalers mean the inhaler’s output is ejected into a large and lengthy chamber giving time for the particles to slow down such that the brochodilator or steroid forms a slower moving cloud which then when inhaled is moving slowly enough that it can be ‘sucked’ around the throat turn by inspiration.   In this fashion lung deposition of the brochodilator or steroid dose is increased by between 40% and 60%.    Studies with radioactive particles loaded into the inhalers, rather than the medicinal compounds, have demonstrated this.   If I had a pound for every time I discussed such with clinicians and medical academics along with showing them and discussing the radioactive particle studies then I’d have a far, far healthier bank account that I do.    I talked little if anything else 9 to 5 for 5 days a week to literally thousands of doctors during one 18 month period of my 20 years in the pharmaceutical industry.   I could probably still talk through the slide set I used for group presentations even now some 30 years later so very reflex did it become due to repetition during that intense 18 month period.   These days modern dry powder inhalers where everything starts off slow are even better and provide double the lung deposition of the pressurised inhalers while also cutting oropharyngeal deposition dramatically.  There is therefore less chance of oral candida (“Thrush”) which is far from being unheard of with pressurised steroid inhalers.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Come to think of it I hope someone has run the genome on the virus in Italy.    The final death rate looks likely to exceed that seen even in Wuhan.   Has this strain mutated which happens faster and more often in RNA viruses.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

In Italy as I type this there have been 3,089 cases.   Of those 107 are already dead (3.5%).   295 are still critical.   Approx. 50% of criticals typically die so we could be looking at another 147 dead and that assumes none of the other 2,706 cases that remain active ever deteriorate to critical and die.     It is far from inconceivable that out of the 3,089 cases so far there will be at least 254 fatalities (i.e. 107 plus 147) for a final death rate of 8.2%.    Heaven help Italy.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Not really an option for me, Les, but you are doing a fine selling job for your island.   I love peace and quiet.   I once considered opening a small restaurant with such as its main selling point and calling it “The Quiet Corner”.   I even worked out the kind of things I’d do to ensure it was  quiet like making the price of the Children’s Meal £200.   Not just to keep children out but mainly as a marketing ploy because that would have got lots of free publicity in the media.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Re your last two posts, Lee – If even you can’t know for certain what amount will be needed (and I mean subs not beers…… LOL) then I have even less chance of knowing what amount will be right.

It occurs to me that if you think that you may need to review the cost of subs in a month or two then you’ll get in one heck of a mess with annual subscribers.    I therefore suggest that if anything you load the subs above that which you currently think you need (e.g. make it £5 a month) and you can always offer a discount to yearly subscribers at renewal time if it turns out you loaded it too heavily versus what turned out to be the actual need.    Hope I’ve explained that well enough.    Golden rule re human nature– Charge £5 a month or £60 per annum and if you later find you can drop it to less everyone feels happy.    Charge £4.50 a month or £54 pa and then very quickly increase it and the reverse of a happy feeling usually results.    I don’t think that would be the case in this forum given that most are understanding but one never really knows.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Clearly with the flood of cases that this virus causes and the fact that about 18% of cases suffer an infection such as to need hospitalisation (and hence a hospital bed) I thought I’d check and see how we compare beds-wise with the likes of China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Germany, etc.    Fortunately I found all the data in one graph.   GULP !

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Update – Selco, Screwfix, ToolStation and many other Trade Suppliers are not pretty much out of all masks; except few a half face filter cartridge jobs.

Just a thought – Most places still have visors which are easy to clean when you get home and should stop one getting hit directly in the face (mouth, nose or eyes) by droplet blasts from the coughs and splutters of the infected.    Everywhere does them.  They’re £7 at B&Q and don’t look too bad to wear.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

HTF – Do you know what kerosene tastes like……………..LOL

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

Most retired Doctors and Nurses don’t want to go back to help with the virus because they no longer like the NHS working environment or are too old and would be at serious risk of infection it they returned.   Yet, most expressed a feeling of guilt for not wanting to.    Time for some outside the box thinking again.

No need to put them back within NHS facilities or in proximity to infected patients.   Use their expertise remotely thereby lessening the load on those at the coal face.   The retired docs are ideal for delivering telephone consultations.   Likewise the retired nurses have better triage skills and experience than gave most 111 operators.   Indeed, no reason why, if they have good broadband and reliable telephone lines, they could not do such from home.   Most 111 calls are now call backs anyway.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

This, written by a UK Cardiology Registrar, is the most concise and informative thread I have ever read about the Covid-19 known facts.  If you only read one thing today make sure its this full thread.

And if you want to know why the NHS isn’t ready then he tells everyone here.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

I too favour incompetence as the likely cause.   But that terrifies me even more because it means not just that politicians are incompetent but also that their close medical advisers are also.   Because masks are an essential tool to reducing onward infections.     Any senior medical adviser not insisting on their general use is intellectually challenged  or has some ulterior motive.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

PS – I have not voted regarding the cost of subs.   Only you know what the forum is costing you financially.    That said, Lee, I would hope that when arriving at an amount for the subs you use the formula – Cost plus a few beers for you.    Because you deserve them for the hard work you put into keeping this going.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

I’m not in favour of monthly subs being the only manner in which to pay.    I would much prefer a yearly sub or perhaps both options (i.e. monthly or yearly).    I suspect some others may feel the same.   Horses for courses to allow folks to pay as their finances allow them to or in the manner they usually desire to work.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

[The VFM Addict]

I favour incompetence theory over conspiracy theory every time.

That said, to me there is growing evidence that HMG might have concluded that ultimately this virus cannot be contained therefore far better to let it run its course as quickly as possible and hence take a short sharp hit to GDP rather than a slow protected one.

There are no plans to start to restrict large congregations of people.   No plans to close schools leaving open not merely the possibility of the virus spreading in children but, especially in respect of primary schools, huge contagion opportunities during the long parents chats at the school gates at going home time.   The WHO is clear that growth within families has been the main driver of this epidemic.

I see nothing in HMG’s plans that is convincing that HMG is wholeheartedly seeking to prevent onward transmission.   Their position on masks is totally inconsistent with such claimed strategy.

All of us here and all medical authorities concur that masks reduce the chances of the infected infecting others.    It this is so then the logical containment strategy is to make mask wearing compulsory.     Indeed, China is of the opinion that compulsory mask wearing which was introduced before the virus had a stranglehold on cities other than Wuhan, where it had exploded before masks became compulsory, has played major part in ensuring spread was less outside Wuhan.

The basic paper masks are not of a kind that hospital staff will wear.   They need better masks.  Therefore making paper masks compulsory in the community does not jeopardise necessary medical supplies.    Paper masks are so easy to produce we could be producing millions a day in the UK within a week if HMG had the will to do so; and selling them for peanuts.

I say again the no masks message is so totally inconsistent with HMG’s declared commitment to containment and that it must surely raise doubts about the depth of their containment commitment.

Note – Because Covid-19 related matters have now been inconveniently split by the initiation of the Masks thread I am posting the above in both the Mask thread and the main Coronavirus – Covid-19 thread.

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During the Covid-19 Epidemic I will be wearing a mask and goggles while posting so that if I become infected I won't spread it to you.

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