@sawboman
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Covid-19, is now the official name for the virus, since it has no species, racial, ethnicity, religious, country or location relationship.
It has now been tested for 1,358 times in the UK with 8 results being found positive. This suggests nothing more than it is too early to assess either infection rates or the readiness of the medical testers to arrange testing. Two labs have now been set up in Scotland, they were using English testing facilities so there is an expansion of available test facilities.
Racism incidents have already been noted as increasing and not just in playgrounds, with some high-profile characters falling into the traps associated with ill-judged commenting.
There is a difference between the now recovered gentleman allowing his image to go out and him being plastered on what might appear to be wanted posters. It was only recently that the police were castigated for distributing warning notice telling a town’s shopkeepers to watch out for a persistent thief. Apparently, that contravened the human wrongs act. Still, if anyone remembers seeing him at the relevant times, then they do now have the option of identifying themselves. However, I would not recognise anyone I saw in a shop even the day after. I might watch out for any symptoms, knowing that some perceived threat might have been abroad. It is called taking personal responsibility.
If you want comforting fairy tales, then the option is yours to write them. I have heard quite enough information and can combine that with years of experience to know that a balance has to be kept. I am currently unable to find any trace that I am in the dark about these issues though I have a strong desire to base feelings on clear evidence for any necessary actions. There is evidence that the Chinese model has let China and the world down badly.
There we have a couple of centres of issues, naming a suspect (Wot abat GDPR, et-al) and more challengingly, how many times have you ever known the name of a passenger with whom you travelled? It is some years since I travelled apart from a few trips to and from central London on fruitless trips to evaluate my wife’s suitability for medical trials. The only person with whom I know I travelled was my wife, though several passengers did appear not to be of UK origin. We only inferred this, as they said they were going to the airport to go home.
As I read, possibly the same reports, the passengers on the ship were being tested if they had symptoms, or if they were close contacts of sick persons. On that basis a high hit rate should be expected. All passengers have been issued with thermometers and other items such as masks. I understood that temperatures have to be taken according to a regular schedule with verification of the result. Those managing the ship are limiting interactions and potential transmission in either direction.
Perhaps we read differently, but tracking symptomless people and their contacts is a difficult task even for some such as the SS or Stasi who tried in the past. I am seeing substantial reports of contact tracing, requested self quarantining and numerous closures of locations as a result.
With a population of 70 million, face mask issuing would require approximately 210 million masks to be found, packed and delivered to? That is based on wear one wash one change into one. Hand sanitiser would require lesser numbers. However, I have frequently attended hospitals complete with my admission form in hand. Every time that I am one of the less than 60% to bother. (I complete mine on the computer, meaning that it can also be read, another unusual feature.)
Prudent and to my mind sensible steps are being planned, including the compulsory quarantine when needed. Based on my previous experience of communicable illness investigations, contact tracing was pursued with some vigour, though not always with complete success. It is also hugely labour-intensive with interviews that took time. Few people remember the sources of possible infectious contacts, even when the problem in question has a short period between contact and illness.
The need for enforced quarantine rules being clarified has now been clarified, one of those in the two week huddle from the first lot has been threatening to abscond possibly violently. If he puts that into practice, I guess he would earn himself a criminal record as an instant bonus under the new rules, perhaps with added points for any act of violence. Downside, he would no longer be able to work overseas in most countries as a result, we would be stuck with him.
I will explore the option of Mg.
VFM, do not worry, if you could ever find a Mr Plod, they will all be tied up anyway, dealing with the Extermination Rebellion nut jobs anyway.
Anyone who could be mistaken for slightly off colour should avoid mixing with the great public (should that be the grating public?).
I still remember the outcry about a Paediatrician during the outcry about Paedophiles.
I shall still go off to my ENT appointment to progress a constant sinus infection for the past 6 months. Despite multiple nasal washes per day, sprays and loads of tablets, it is nowhere near being controlled.
The available accommodation for quarantine requires candidate vetting above anything else, though the odd random witch hunt has already happened and more will be encountered.
Quarantine either means what it says or becomes meaningless. If some cowboy/girl decides that they are too big to be ruled, then there is only one right way to deal with them. Restrict their usurped ‘wrong’ not right to infect, or at least risk infecting others. I see such action as far from ominous, I note that to date others are complying/ have complied without issue. As far as I remember using such powers is not new similar rules have been used in the past for other possibly equally or more deadly threats or risks. Sadly it has not always been the case, e.g. Typhoid-Mary, who continued to run food establishments infecting others in the USA as a symptomless carrier. You cannot have both sides of the coin, complaining about a lack of action and bemoaning action being taken.
As is usual, there are an infinite number of issues and questions yet a distinct range of clear answers. Latent infection periods, life on random surfaces, air-born life spans, the number of so-called super carriers and so on almost ad infinitum. As time passes knowledge will accumulate and the threat will either wipe us all out, though at the moment this appears unlikely or it will subside down to a lower level leaving a range of consequences.
For the moment I have enough to deal with on the medical front. For a range of reasons I have limited contacts, shopping is a rare and not usually welcome hassle, so I will try, yet probably fail to keep up with routine hygiene and other activities and wait to see how the damned wind blows, currently far too strongly at the moment!
When my daughter moved into her assisted accommodation I bought one of these, AC 1200 2.4GHz + 5.8 GHz from Amazon for about £15. There was a short hiatus a while back and I quickly ordered a spare as a replacement, only to hear moments later that she had accidentally unplugged a vital bit of the set up and that with that all was fine once more. Other than that mishap her Wi-Fi has been flawless. It is getting a constant workout these days as she is about halfway through her foundation course, which means she is not only studying but also looking at Universities. She has had offers from several and invites the to open days from 3, we were impressed by the first one we visited only 60 miles away, but she thinks she is more impressed by another about 250 miles away and out in the countryside. So, she might also be about to undergo a change of location in the not to distant future.
Good luck with you move, rather you than me at the moment. I am not pushing that as a solution to adding wireless to your PC, but it does work and was easy to set up.
Most modern conspiracy theorists apply no pre-thought to their theory. They take an event, sit in their lair stringing anything they can find into an incoherent theory to ‘explain’ what they cannot comprehend. Or to sell to suckers who can then panic. History is full of events and sects based on such crap, and they still continue to flourish. Their main contribution is to complicate already complex problems, they remove value and add nothing.
There are several fronts on which concerns can be addressed. Currently, there is a trend to patent anything that people can get away with patenting so that they can then charge royalties from anyone who drifts into using any aspect of the patient. For years there has been a spat over Americans taking free genome data created by the Welcome and the Sanger institutes. They stuck a bit on the top to create a patent for which they wished to charge an excessive fee. This means your genome data can be patented so that you cannot get access without payment, even if you were to sequence it yourself. This is why so many have claimed patents on any work related to the sequencing of many things, the moral aspects of claiming a patent on something that exists naturally is, at best questionable.
Turning to the mess that is now China. Without needing any conspiracy theory it is pretty easy to see what is going on. The Chinese Government is a total control animal. However, in this case they have shown a total absence of effective control. They allowed market to thrive in ways that clearly promoted to creation and spread of zoonotic illnesses. Then they tried to bar any discussion of the failure and its initial consequences. Ongoing discussion of the events is actively blocked in a failing effort to save face. No one needs a conspiracy theory to explain that there have been multiple failures, they are endemic in all totalitarian states. (Even in Trump-land with his mantra of fake news, whenever bad news hits home.)
What I object to are taking bits of half-baked ideas, such as patents exist on the genetic data on a bug family so this means today’s bogie bug was man made.
Sadly, the first casualty of war is truth and that died in China long ago, well before this outbreak. Now, their government has to look as though it is in control. Let us face facts, this stable of wild horses never really had a stable from which to escape. They are now rampaging as some have done before, remember SARS? Most viruses can live for short periods outside their hosts, the only issue is how long is that period? Though a side issue is, what conditions enhance survival. Some like moist, humid conditions, some do not survive in the presence of certain surfaces or conditions, e.g. ultraviolet light, ozone, etc. the list is indefinite. I understand some metals are life limiting for some viruses, so suitable for hand rails and so on. Moist humid, warm conditions exist on most transport where passengers are crammed together in close contact for enough time to allow efficient transfer of viable fragments. Hey ho, these fragments might also find hosts in which they can combine to form novel bugs. Using the infinite number of monkeys theorem, with enough fragments with almost unlimited hosts plus ideal transmission situations, e.g a city with crowded transport and insanitary animal husbandry. Wow, it must be a conspiracy against public transport. Or perhaps not, it is a complaint (not conspiracy) against huge cities with their novel and as yet misunderstood issues.
Being sneezed or coughed on is as close to direct contact as makes no difference. What matters is the flight time that any aerosols remain viable and what entry routes can they employ for successful entry to new hosts. Tied in with this is when do hosts become spreaders and via what mechanisms? If they spread the infection while not showing symptoms, is contact, exhaling or what?
Spraying empty streets looks colourful and is symbolic of action being taken. One might also venture to suggest it is about as much use as having a chicken bone through your nose. We know the mouth, eyes and nose are principle entry routes. So is the skin for some problems, especially if there are any breaks in the surface. Maybe it is a conspiracy by the makers of barrier creams, gloves, goggles and masks to sell more products to fend off infections.
Recent leapfrog incidents show that proximity to sources of infection are a key issue, the ski chalet, cruise ships, cities, their transport and perhaps planes are all proven risk situations. Perhaps the mobile loving, proximity shunning population are onto something after all?
Or perhaps more care about personal hygiene, sanitising and general well-being considerations are just as important. Anyone for hand and face sanitising – but not baby wipes, which are indicted as part of the outbreak of allergy issues, but that is a different can of worms.
Bob, I completely agree with you.
Ed, the regime is getting a lot of flack at the moment, washing the streets may be totally useless, but as in Paris may be a regular thing anyway. One going in its favour from the Chinese government point of view is that it looks as though they are doing something, however ineffective or otherwise it might be.
While I understand your desire to commemorate the good Doctor, now sadly deceased, I can see that not succeeding against Chinese censors. By all accounts they are currently at full stretch dealing with the local groundswell of discontent over the party’s screw-up over him and the outbreak.
I accept that physical builds look fine in almost everything these days, but that is only a small part of the package ‘as built’. Even cheap LED light units are quite amazing to look at, but if the over all package build includes dodgy hardware with frozen SOC, godawful software and zero protection, (sometimes for one or both of electrical and security support) the result is idiotic crap. Any good aspects of improved quality of manufacture are totally lost when that very often happens. Low voltage and main voltage parts that ‘shockingly’ lack sufficient clearances, components that do not fail-safe and so on are all available for sale and stand ready to kill.
But Ed, you must allow for all the PC objections these days. Naming it after animals has many problems, perhaps that are eaten somewhere as ‘essential protein’, or they are ‘untouchables’ somewhere else. Origin based naming is not acceptable for some, e.g. probably the Chinese, while others desire finger pointing. The unwashed are already shunning contact with anyone who looks in any way from the Far East. Numbers are too hard for many to remember and so on. A paid, professional junket collector/attender has their role to protect, at any price to the tax payers who fund them.
To me N-Cov-2019/20 is as good as any name, 2019-Death-Flu is perhaps a bit too graphic. Neither may translate very well into 175 different languages!
After all the tales of wide open doors on the rubbish sold as IOT the stuff is more like IDIOTIC, Internet Directly Interconnection Of Threats Including Chaos?
Want your baby or toddler harassed at night? Then buy our IDIOTIC baby alarm.
Want the world to see your nice stuff at home? Then buy our idiotic video camera.
It just goes on and so on.
Half the time the only thing cheap about the crap is the build quality, too much is actually sold for real money as though it was worthwhile, well-supported and worth having. What chance does quality product stand in a market flooded with junk?
There is increasingly sceptical comment about the true figures for infections, deaths and degrees of illness within China. As ever, the apparently good news is spread with joy, but the real position is rather less clear. The new hospitals have been somewhat trumpeted, but more and more capacity is being added by taking over a range of other buildings, hotels, sports centres and so on. There is less fanfare for these activities. None of this suggests that other locations should let up on their prudent activities and trying to ensure that everyone follows the best care and hygiene practices.
Companies in Hong Kong are bringing masks in from USA and South Africa, I am told that Macao has captured the supply from Portugal. People in Hong Kong are not happy with the masks that work best, they want the basic 3 layer paper type not the PM3 versions because the inferior ones are easier and more comfortable to wear. I wonder, would they also prefer swimwear to stab vests in a different threat scenario?
I imagine that there are all sorts of limits on the makers and the supply points preventing a rapid change of manufacturing from one area to another, it is easy to say but usually impractical.
The use and abuse of pharmaceuticals is a whole other issue and one that must be based on clinical needs. Happily for most potential sufferers they appear unjustified.
The part played by people movement has been highlighted with the report today that a passenger had left a cruise ship and a number of passengers have since developed the virus infection. Trapping the rest of the passenger in a quarantine situation. The passenger in question appeared to leave the vessel some days ago on the 25th January having joined the ship in Japan on the 20th. The infected passengers are all in their later years, 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s according to the reports, though they are said to be not serious at this time. All confirmed cases are being treated on the mainland in medical facilities. It is unclear to me if the seventy-year-old Chinese person came aboard on the 20th already infected or where he picked up the infection. Some detective work is now required by the public health people in Japan.
Spanish flu was said to be spread by people movements, along with a number of other issues of the time.
A contact about to leave Hong Kong bemoaned the poor reaction he was observing with the meat markets still selling anything and everything with little regard to hygiene or precautions. While we can speculate about the effectiveness of face masks they are largely unobtainable there in any form and prices for everything have been rising steeply. He is glad to be departing – but should he come home under the circumstances?
Given that the ability to spread the virus for at least 14 days before showing symptoms and the fact that some who perhaps showed mild symptoms continued contact with others, I am not surprised that the infection rates have continued an upward trend in China. I am reasonably certain that reporting has been progressively tightened up over the past few weeks and both of those will influence the infection recording rate. I lack knowledge of epidemic infection curves. Given the absence of data, I suspect few other qualified sources have.
VFM, let us try to not become too paranoid. Those dragged out of China were not removed because they were carriers or infected, rather it was because they were at risk. It is true that someone was found to be unwell after the second flight and was promptly removed to a treatment centre. I have not heard if they had the sniffles or the disaster film bug. For the rest there was, and as far as I know, still no reason to isolated them from all contact with other humans. In fact to do so when there is no clear reason, could well be more dangerous to their health and increase any risk of a problem. They are not in hospital, but in isolation under supervision. I agree that hospitals are not health camps, I can upset people calling them the bug-exchange, or ‘death-camp’.
I have to assume that, having lived with the threat for some time that they will stick to all the hygiene and care rules as though their lives depended upon doing so.
Yes, I had heard the same comments about the cheap, almost throw-a-way masks. Their poor fit makes them almost useless to filter inbound air. I agree that a barrier layer inside the mask can help, I have seen various ideas proposed but care is needed if you use brine as the hard edges wetted by brine are likely to cause skin problems. Such multilayer items are much more expensive to make and do need great care when they are used. One mistake and they are rendered almost totally ineffective.
The best first line is greatly improved hygiene, that means hand washing, instantly disposing of used handkerchiefs in safe conditions, avoiding crowds and self managing especially if there is any suspicion of infection. Vaseline used in the nose can achieve two things, help to avoid excess drying and stick items on the way in, it is one of the many recommendations that I have previously been given by the ear nose and throat team treating my established condition. Once more hygiene is vital.
However, it is doubtful if the idea of dressing up like extras from a low budget disaster film will catch on, however dire the prognosis becomes. Even improving hygiene will be a battle, but we can but hope.
My wife has had trouble with Raynaud’s syndrome for years. Her fingers go white and her hands become somewhat useless if she is not careful. She also has other autoimmune troubles for which she is currently finding steroids useful. She also has troubles with her joints. I thought it might have been a side effect of her chemotherapy. For a while she barely able to walk, so now I have a 99% complete disability form prepared on my PC. However, a minor foot operation and the steroids have helped her to regain better mobility so the form is currently parked. Some joint pains can be very hard to diagnose, I had a hip injection on Christmas eve and for a couple of days I thought that had worked, but since hen things have been worse so it affects my whole stomach. It could originate with my spine and may also explain leg and foot pains. Quite how a big toe joint could disturb a night’s sleep defeats me. Chemical treatments do nothing, which tends to suggest that it is the spine and possible nerve damage. Being wishy-washy explanations does not help pains to get better, they do impact on an awful lot of life.
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