[Richard]

I look from time to time to see if Bob had made any progress. It is upsetting that he is still in at medical cross roads. Wishing him well is such a limited and feeble action but it all that I can do. Yes, he has admirable spirit, and it is great that he will be home for Christmas. It is certain that his family will rally round and put him at the centre of their thoughts and actions. Please tell him, that of course we are all rooting for him, and hoping against hope that the road to March will bring better news, perhaps even the best news.

[Richard]

I have logged in after my long absence to add my best wishes and to agree all that Dave R said. Many of us will have heard, ‘I did not want to…’ or ‘I had to stop after taking many times the hours planned for this procedure…’ or ‘I went to several conferences and asked others what they thought about this case… no one liked the mess’.

Only the good think deeply, and worry before they have one more try to fix things the right way. It is depressing to know that someone who was once so  full of life, pride in his family and dynamism is getting crushed.

Please add my voice to those wishing him well, I hope this time it does go well and the fog of pain and painkillers starts begins clearance and the quality of his life improves. Get better Bob and let the world know that hope exists for a reason.

[Richard]

JayCeeDee, you are right, I had huge problems finding any way to write anything and the only way was as you found. Today I appear able to respond to your query. I have copied my explanation, and though it was addressed to Bob it applies to all who were concerned for my welfare. I am aware that the present problems are hard for all – the impact on each is different and it is taking time for the full effects to appear. Perhaps when lockdown eases for some the problems will appear, and for some a long time later. Whether we like it or not we will all find we have been changed and some will have been terribly damaged.

Bob, thank you for taking a keen personal interest in my state of health. It has been difficult this year, and it is not yet done. We are shielding. My wife is OK, and though I do try to get out with daughter’s dog, trying to control various issues with my blood pressure, they are making life trying in addition to my other health quibbles. Daughters are OK-ish; elder is buried under Coronavirus testing loads at a large hospital, younger daughter is at a loose end; her college is shut, so toys may have left the pram. We have unfixable issues there. I struggle to decide a way forward for her. I am not alone in having gremlins to face down, I know others have as much, some, have many times more trouble. For the moment I fix what I can, for the rest I am withdrawing.
Thank you for caring, take care, keep safe, retain your family values.

[Richard]

Ed P wrote:

The following is purely educated guesswork on my part, based on many years spent living in Singapore. My guess would be demographics.

Yes, I think you are right, if you do not have many of a certain group you are not going to have so many infected. I noted from the Singapore link that the few elderly victims they do have, appear to be doing as well or possibly better than in some other locations. Their success contact tracking is possibly the envy of many places.

[Richard]

There is talk that the Covid-19 issue is causing a slow down if not a drying up of portable computer supplies. Firms are either buying items to be used for newly created home workers or holding on to existing items in case of a need for the next few months. It might be wise to track what you can see.

Sorry to hear about your mother, issues like that really concentrate your mind on where it matters most. I trust that she is making good progress and getting all the help and care she needs.

[Richard]

The VFM Addict wrote:

Singapore has by far the best Covid-19 Dashboard around. You can look at each individual case in detail including Age, Sex, Nationality and Places visited. It seems only 4 of all their cases have been over 70. If you want to explore the Dashboard is here but can at times be slow loading. Do wait though it is well worth the wait.

Any thoughts on why there have been so relatively few older age group sufferers? I can only wonder if they do not resort to warehousing older people in infection incubation retorts.

[Richard]

The hand wash idea has certainly not got through to most of the population as yet, Even when there are facilities available, i.e. when the punters need to dodge past the sink, soap and tap, about 60% of people using ‘the facilities’ did not bother to wash their hands, most of them then went on to buy food and drink. How many will pay any head to the idea of hand sanitising is anyone’s guess, mine is that it will be a small number. My wife has dug out the spray she was given as part of one of her ‘welcome packs’ during her treatments. It appears small enough to be discrete and easy to use, but will clearly not last for ever.

To be fair I have heard, seen and read the message about hand washing, fronts, backs between the fingers and across the nails and take at least 20 seconds, almost to the point of being able to remake a COI film.

I am not so sure that banning football matches would obtain enough ‘leverage’. However, religious gatherings have been effective infection promoters. Just look at Korea and Iran.

Residential facilities, commercial and personal residences, are a risk just see how many became infected. Any restrictions need to be proportionate and carefully targetted

To a large extent Covid-19 needs to be promoted as an optional illness. Unless people take inter-personal responsibility the issue will become far bigger as the careless fall prey and spread the risks to others.

The issue of face masks has been extensively discussed and yes for outbound bugs they may be effective, sadly less so for the inbound variety and then only if well-designed, manufactured and maintained (with binning frequently the only maintenance for some types). I guess full face motorcycle helmets might well provide substantial protection against inbound infections, protecting the face and blocking all hand contact as a bonus. I do not propose to adopt that solution.

However, infected people should not need to bother too much with masks; they should be keeping/kept out of circulation. Italy has shown how hospitals and old persons’ homes are likely to be death camps – infected older persons are probably the reason for the Italian death rates.

Both my wife and fall into a number of undesirable risk camps, age, co morbidities, etc. so we are not unaware of being close to, if not in the firing line. Our task is to keep our  heads down and minimise the risks we can control, while trying to retain some normality. Most supplies are already delivered rather than fetched, though I am uncertain of the risk profile of visiting supermarkets. It falls to everyone to minimise their risks.

I am aware that it is likely to be a bad time for of Steve. Sadly, I can offer no suggestion or aid for the many thousands of ‘Steves’ who will also be affected. Some government assistance is promised/threatened but it is unclear to me how much relief that will provide to affected small businesses.

[Richard]

Have a happy, fit birthday and many more to come once you are in your new home.

[Richard]

Be careful, those are dust masks and offer little or no virus protection. They may be sold as panaceas by some. Masks my carry another risk, if people become overly bold and think they become invincible. Correct hand washing and avoiding crowded places are wise. Other options might build on that firm base.

[Richard]

I had an ENT appointment on Thursday and signed off a consent form. I was told not to expect a long wait, it should happen in the next 3 months.

We spent Friday morning packing up and dealing with the odd chore before a weekend trip. Then the phone rang, showing a number like a scammer in Delhi. Happily, it was the NHS, could they do the pre-admission this week and the procedure next week? Short of an emergency admission via A&E that appeared about as fast as things get. Apparently, they are keen to keep breathing cases flowing through the system. So, no panic or concern beyond business as slightly better than usual.

Over the weekend we did over five hundred miles, the slow roadworks saved fuel meaning over 60 mpg but a tiring twelve hours of driving.

[Richard]

I spent nearly two hours in outpatients yesterday as a follow up to one of the branches of my investigations. It appears that last month’s scan did find the probably source of my previous lung infection several years ago. Happily, though it has slaved away churning out problems, it had not yet caused the lung problem  to repeat. The upshot of this statement is twofold. At some point I will have an operation to clear out and hopefully solve what has been an ongoing issue. The other is that it must quite obviously put me in the possible target group for the present bit of excitement going the rounds. In my mid seventies, with respiration spinal issues all is not perfectly well with me.

Still. I am largely unmoved by that issue. My social circle is very limited, so I live in a way that could most of the time, be considered closely aligned with self isolation. Though, in contrast to that last statement we do have a 500 plus mile round trip for a University open day tomorrow.

Personally, I see little reason for me to panic over Covid-19 there is already amply evidence that others have already taken that course for me. Stock markets are falling with a consequent risk to the pensions of many of us, the next risk issue is that food supplies could become affected. Oh, what will the crushed avocado set do to get their fix of expensive, water intensive imported fruit. Never mind the dire warnings that schools might shut for 2 months and that production via most activities will be slashed. What no new Apple shiny things or mass sports events?

I did have to wonder as I waited for an hour and half surrounded by a growing number of heaving of over weight children and their equally overweight mothers, where do the greatest problems lie? I found a partial answer when my appointment finally started and the doctor was unable to log into obtain my required information. The rejection message appeared to leave him confused, his login credentials were rejected. He left to seek the help of others before returning with an update. Then he left once more to seek a consent form which he then struggled to fill out. No wonder there are delays, cancellations and long waits. It is not the first time that a two stream set up has been seen to function as less than one due to the extra time lost during joint consultations when two function as closer to half a person.

So, I shall try to keep rolling along, in the hope not the expectation of getting somewhere.

[Richard]

Sorry, that is a clash about what  ‘experts’ are saying. They said that their modelling showed 60% as the worst-case not the only case in the studies I saw and read about. You decided that nothing can be done to stop that worst case. That is your opinion, we can either agree, roll over and play dead now or perhaps panic and end up dead anyway.

Clearly some countries are willing to fulfil the Armageddon desire. Iran will not restrict access to  their epicentres of infection, Saudi is saying no thanks and closing their probably porous border.

The Italians  made errors, they are now working to try to recover.

Yes, the UK could do more, our cases were imported, perhaps the UK should now bar all arrivals for 4 ~ 6 weeks? That sure knocks the hell out of panicking.

Or the UK could order up infinite respirators knowing that there would never be a hope of getting them, the required bed spaces, the staff and supporting services to meet your prophesy. For your tax bill not mine thank you.

[Richard]

Dave, I am with you, excess panic does nothing to protect anyone. Yes, a scenario did predict figures as high as 60%, but it was also identified as the proposer’s worst case. It showed what could happen if the public showed the levels of sloppiness that would drive such an event. Such predictions are not intended to be a build to plan, but a wake up call to do rather more in the self, family and friends protection direction of travel. We know that those with health issues are most at risk and that included some on here. Those already in institutional situations are clearly at heightened risks as events worldwide have already shown. So precautionary action need to focus on them to prevent them becoming a locus of trouble. Everybody needs to focus on personal hygiene, a really unpopular fact of life. In some ways catching a bug could come to be looked upon as an elective event. Avoid prolonged proximity to anyone who could be a carrier. Yes sanitise your hands as often as you can, yes wipe down surfaces that could or will harbour infectious agents. Perhaps maintain safe separation from others in general. While I suspect that face masks are nearly useless in most regards, I can see one way that might give protection, if they are changed whenever needed. Most people touch their face very often and more so when they are worried. So touch a dodgy surface and with about 120 seconds that contact will be transferred to their face, the wait time might even be less. A mask could reduce such contact and transfer events. Otherwise, not sharing eating utensils and better management of what are supposed to be quarantine situations is desirable. Apparently, the management of the ‘locked down’ hotels is somewhat woeful with long food queues sharing serving utensils, chatting while effectively  pressed together, etc.

VFM, I see you are subscribing to the idea what we must all take personal responsibility, those with health issues must be especially mindful of their role in personal protection.

It is absurd to propose bankrupting each other by suggesting the purchase of equipment that could never be delivered in time and for which no trained staff or space would be available in a 60% event.

[Richard]

Ed, a wee bit cynical but I understand and perhaps share some of that feeling. Sometimes it takes a major upset to correct wrongs and limitations.

[Richard]

I took heed of the comments about Magnesium and after finding a supply I started a short while back. I have also adjusted my seating arrangements with the PC. Recently, I have noticed an improvement in both my nasal situation and a slight, though welcome reduction leg pain. This has been handy as due to NHS ‘efficiency’, my appointment with the spinal surgeon as cancelled last Friday… It is now set for early March.

Returning to the subject of Covid-19, I find it interesting that so far there are reports of almost endemic levels in China and Hong Kong, then hot-spots in Korea and Italy and suspicions of widespread infections in Iran, with random travellers going to other locations. It is noticeable the Singapore conference delegate apparently become an efficient spreader when in close proximity to others, e.g. while in a chalet on his alpine holiday, but evidently less so when more distant.

The Korean outbreak appears tightly connected with a funeral, a cult and subsequent hospital confinements.

Likewise, I understand the Italian waves centred on a hospital and an old person’s facility with some outward ripples. Tracing the sources is said to be finding no obvious leads.

The Japanese authorities’ use of the ship for quarantine failed. Since even Japanese infection control staff fell ill, it reinforces the idea that something was drastically wrong in their application in a tight proximity community, such as those on a ship.

Could the spread factor be tied into proximity, i.e. the degree of communal living and perhaps general health?

Current news reports provide insufficient information to draw informed understanding of the susceptibility of the general populace and the best ways to limit spread. Post event studies might fill in some of those gaps.

For the moment my life will go on as normally as it can.

[Richard]

Ed, we were both promoting the same idea. Delay the run-off from high ground via a variety of methods. Rushy, marshy paddocks, small streams with a series of gathering or settlement ponds, also equipped with rushes and the like to filter out the slit that otherwise gets dropped into the drainage system. Yes, outlets need to be wide and deep enough, and you do not want fast flow. This may mandate regular dredging activity to ‘harvest’ the mud. Sadly, and stupidly this is now usually classified as industrial waste. Historically, it was considered a rich soil improver that reduced the need to spread fertilisers. That was how the Somerset levels used to be maintained. However, dealing with it at the lower levels is a symptom of failure. It has to be managed from the very start of the flow. One way that has been experimented with is the use of otherwise useless straw bails at the edge of high run off areas to slow the flow right at the start. Seeding them with rushes and other powerfully rooted mesh style plants. Then digging, not filling in staggered, upper reach holding ponds with filtered outlets that allow slowed release of the water, but retain the rich, muddy sediments. This has been shown to ‘grow’ soggy, marshy, water retention ‘paddocks’ on such hill slopes where the restricted, water and vegetation egress helps to improve the land and equally valuably hold back the early arrival of what would otherwise arrive as flood water further down stream. Of course, it requires some intense, thoughtful planning and the sort of awareness that some in the environmental and river planning departments have been quick to forget and slow to realise

[Richard]

Figures I saw suggested that the money planned for flood mitigation is now set to double. I hope the environmental disaster promoters, who’s ‘no dredging’ folly was recently reversed in the Somerset levels, clearing that areas problems will be set to work with shovels to dig out other areas. Perhaps some schemes to delay run-off from high ground and opening up drainage routes further downstream would be a sound. Simply building higher river banks does not work, a complete water management process is required. Higher river banks produce higher flood waters with more stored energy. This causes greater problems when they break. Sadly, history suggests that such problems can be partially cyclical. Standby in a few years time to hear future moans about money that was wasted on flood management.

[Richard]

Our home area has been fine, we have just been up to York on Tuesday and back today. The main thing locally is the number of affected fences and trees with either limbs messed up or the whole, in most cases the whole rotten thing coming down. The floods we saw both travelling and in York were significant. In short lots of water, a bit of it in rivers. Since the passable roads were well above flood level we did not see much of the real impact. In York whole stretches were barred with locked gate keeping people out. It was only when you viewed it from a safe distance that you realised that trees rarely grown out of the middle or rivers, or that few lamp posts are similarly embedded in flowing water. Many rivers were perhaps quarter of a mile wide, some far wider It is clearly going to be a grim year for agriculture and probable just as bad or worse for many business and residential sufferers. The news is continuing heavy rain, an encounter of the darned awful kind we ran into during our return today.

[Richard]

Yes, I have also had a few different ones, Ramipril not only caused me a persistent cough, it also caused my wife’s anaphylaxis. I have lost count of the changes I have had somewhere between 4 and 6 different changes.

The cough is probably tied in with sinus and other issues. They had resulted in lung infections in the past. Having a camera stuck into your lungs, without sedation, (long story) is an experience to be enjoyed, but perhaps only once. The story gets stale for the umpteenth time of telling!

[Richard]

Did you install the TomTom app? I have never seen it. My mobile acts as a hot spot for the car satnav and is powered off the car when on longer trips, to get travel up dates and keep it charged. The car is good at spotting limits. I like the cruise control and the speed limiter to mange my limits.

I have disabled most of those keyboards, so I no longer get those updates, but there are many other, ‘don’t care’ dross apps like them.

[Author]

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