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IF the timeline shown by the Beeb is accurate we should be extremely worried. The induction time between being infected and being able to infect others is between 1 and 4 days, and the time to display any symptoms of illness is up to a week after being infected, and being confirmed as a covid victim takes up to a week after contacting health officials with an infection rationale.
As said before we are being drip fed info by Mushroom Matt, and this is a BIG mistake.
They are apparently tracing (note present tense) the patients treated by the doctors. Given they know exactly who they are that comment should have been in the past tense, but obviously Mushroom Matt is interfering again. Given my interpretation of the infection timelines, early release of information is vital even at the risk of inaccuracy.
Still maybe Mushroom Matt has a cunning secret plan to cut down future Health and Pension costs as well as freeing up housing in the South and all within six months! 👿
BTW some new boot code has been released for the Pi4. Unfortunately fairly useless stuff other than a way (at last) of turning off the irritating screen blanking.
You should send the full story to Mushroom Matt:
“One reason why a panic has not occurred among passengers is the captain’s leadership. Regular announcements of information,”
Last night on BBC4 they screened a program made in 2018 in which a pandemic hit the UK (starting in Hastlemere and not a million miles from Hove). This was accurately simulated using a phone app given out in 2018 to ~30000 people of all ages and backgrounds spread over the UK.
The results of the experiment were fed to the Imperial College London team, the same ones who issued the recent Covid estimate. Given the present situation any intelligent person watching the program Contagion will have their pants severely soiled.
Unfortunately I did not jot down the assumptions the ICL team used but it appeared that they could easily adjust them. IIRC they used an R0 of 1.8 (down a bit from the Wuhan 2.2) and a similar CFR (much higher than their latest estimate of 1%). This simulation resulted in about 900000 deaths over a three month period starting in the South East and ending in Scotland. I guess on the recent ICL numbers that equates to around half a million deaths in the UK.
They did however come out with some recommendations to cut down on the numbers of Social SuperSpreaders namely closing places of gathering, e.g. pubs, coffee shops, schools. Also other measures such as work from home etc. They could also identify those people who should be immunised (read wear nbc suits or similar) e.g. shop keepers, pub landlords etc.
Unfortunately they did not simulate mask wearing by everyone, but I think they should be easily able to put that into their program.
The Mushroom Man – Matt Hancock has nowhere to hide, and no excuses can be made.
Richard, the average Chinese citizen would eschew going to a pharmacy, but instead go to their local herbalist.
I’d hesitate to say what they would get, but I’d guess at herbs like willow bark (aspirin). Many of their herbs are unknown in the West but some such as their anti-malarial remedies were much more effective than those obtainable from big Pharma (The artemesin tea anti-malarial for example).
Whenever my secretary came down with a cold she would drink a ‘tea’ made from ingredients supplied by the local herbalist. She had no idea what she was drinking but she said that it worked for her. Incidentally the herbalist would act a bit like a doctor in questioning and examining her before supplying anything. Sometimes however it would be pure voodoo medicine such as ‘cupping therapy’ for tendon pain.
btw I dislike covid-19 as a name as it does not roll off the tongue in the same way as MERS or SARS
On the BBC South East news tonight they featured covid-19 (crap name), Most of those interviewed complained at the drip-feed of official information and local health officials revealed that they had been gagged and prevented from releasing statements or advice by Matt Hancock’s Dept of Health. (Mushroom Matt).
What was drip fed this evening was that the superspreader did not feel at all unwell until his flight landed at Gatwick on 28th January. This means of the eleven or so people he infected that seven or eight had occurred in the week before he felt any symptoms.
It is going to be very difficult to contain this virus.
The CFR wiki is worth a look. It puts the death rate in context 10 to 20 times worse than ordinary flu but 30 times better than H5N1 flu. (the bird flu that has been on the edge of becoming infectious for some years).
The odds skyrocket against you if you are a smoker. That actually may support the apparently low (1% CFR) that ICL calculated as most male Chinese are smokers and help explain why death rates outside China appear much lower. This is not due to Chinese medical facilities being worse than the west, generally they are just as good. Different, and probably overwhelmed but just as good.
As an anecdote to support that assertion an American colleague was involved in a very nasty but all too common road accident in Urumqi and had to be treated on the spot. When he eventually was able to be medivaced back to the States he of course had all his many inserts and sutures checked over by US surgeons. The opinion was that they equalled the best practice in the US except that stainless steel was used, whereas the US practice was to use titanium.
If you looked at the link you will see a fairly good photograph of the gentleman. I have a lot of admiration for the way that he has publicised his own details.The Government could have asked him to do this weeks ago. They could also have added the main places he visited and mode of travel. His pub has been covered as has his workplace, but I’m certain that there are others.
Quite frankly I’m disgusted that this Government treats us like mushrooms (keep in dark and cover with BS) rather than as adults. The Government’s main objective has too obviously been to buy time for themselves and to prevent panic, They have failed to grasp the nettle while it was very small.
As a minimum our Government should have put out a did you sit near Steve Walsh between January 28th and ?? February as soon as it became obvious that he is a superspreader.
Interesting but worrying stats in this Ars report on the cruise ship moored off japan.
They have reportedly tested just 439 people, and of these 30% have tested positive. Pretty poor odds if you get in contact with someone with the flu.
The worrying bit comes that even a sophisticated country like Japan jibes at testing 3000 people. I wonder how many people we can screen in the UK?
The WHO says that tracing contacts is a vital part of slowing the spread of the disease, but I saw no mention of that in the Telegraph blurb. I guess the realisation has kicked in that there is apparently little you can do when someone without apparent symptoms can spread the disease by touching surfaces with their hands.
Imo that is wrong-headed. The Government should be thinking of free issue of a basic alcohol hand gel and encourage people to use it if they touch anything in a public place. They should also consider mask issue to every home in the same manner as Singapore. If we cannot import enough, we should be investigating ways of manufacturing them ourselves. Without that measure we will be unable to force people to wear masks in public places, but I guess our surveillance mad society would hate anonymous people walking around the streets.
That sounds like a job for a fast homeplug.
On the news it was reported that they talked him out of his threat last Thursday so the Government did not have a real trigger except a realisation that the term voluntary quarantine meant just that, and maybe they needed a few teeth.
That said it would be interesting to learn just how the authorities manage the logistics of self quarantine. I know for example that we would be pretty much out of food after four days, and if children were included they would be driving any parent up the wall within that period.
+1 to the Magnesium comment. Since supplementing with magnesium citrate my general health other than damned seasonal colds has improved and so too has my blood pressure.
I agree with the comment on it hitting London.
The deliberate Government silence on how he got from Gatwick to Hove suggests that the Government knows he did not use his car and that the brown stuff has hit the fan via the 8pm train. On the Easyjet side the news is better; no cabin crew have been infected and they are tracing nearby passengers. (However, I would have been happier if that news had been in the past tense!).
Another downside to over consumption of zinc is that you lose your sense of taste/smell.
I think that the comment about the Government/NHS needing time to get its act together was spot on. There have been a number of local South East actions taking place over the last five days that have imo deliberately not been pulled together for National Reporting:
Brighton Surgery (reopening after steam cleaning)
Crowborough company (East Sussex)
Btw, either I had 24 hour flu, or the zinc gluconate works! Very nearly no symptoms today so I was able to walk into town to restock on zinc without fear of being interned!
Edits still not working!
I was trying to add that alcohol gel may be unobtainable in your area. If you have any IPA, putting some on a paper towel is a very acceptable alternate to washing your hands in scotch! My pharmacist said he was certain 95% IPA would kill all nasal viruses, he thought that it could be safely diluted to 70% and still disrupt virus cell walls.
Do not use meths! This can be absorbed through the skin and cause liver disease.
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