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Graham, it looks great for growing rice!
No run on shops THIS weekend -it is absolutely foul outside!
The Beeb had an article on self isolation – they basically say use friends/family or home delivery services to cover the 14 (24?) days. If pushed I prefer condensed milk to the thin powdered variety, but a mix of the two is better.
However, imo I’m not sure that the 14 days isolation is all that useful as the experience with the ‘superspreader’ was that he was most infectious during his asymptotic phase (the week before he became ill)! The floating petri dish also raises similar questions, but that experiment looks set to end as the US Government and others state that it is obviously putting the lives of their citizens at risk.
My personal prediction would be that we will quickly move towards requiring mask wearing in public, and the elimination of public gatherings wherever possible. Will matches be played to empty football grounds in March? Based on ‘the BBC TV experiment, an appeal will be made to eliminate family visits and UK vacations as these were the mechanisms by which far-flung locations were hit much more quickly than predicted. I can see the ICL play-book being the one that will be followed.
The latest report from ICL states that the disease roughly doubles each week. We can therefore expect to reach the 100 infected mark in the UK at the beginning of March. Obviously the ST thinks that will be the required political trigger for effective action.
Wuhan has a fairly modern Metro, however iirc it is of the modern US Westinghouse style which separates track and stations by a glass screen with sliding doors.which would tend to reduce the amount of air being pumped into stations from elsewhere. So I agree, London has a better virus distribution system.
Incidentally the Beeb quietly updated the Diamond Princess numbers on the 6pm news. However I still think that information releases are being managed so as not to frighten the masses.
Maybe I’m wrong but since TBLiar I have seen no reason to have faith in our politicians, especially with potentially difficult news releases. The election of a PM who even outdoes the great Blair dissembler, gives me even less basis for trust. Add in control freak Cummings and it becomes hard not to question everything in our media. (Private Eye excepted!)
I agree that it looks like the Government has been manipulating the scale of the problem for the popular media. However, it would not surprise me to see massive increases in cases/deaths being stored up to enable a propaganda release of large-scale problems that in turn enables the introduction of necessary Chinese-style draconian measures.
In the West the main problem with Covid-19 is that for the most part it is either benign or hidden. I’m certain the powers that be are receiving excellent advice from LSE and the WHO on the best measures to contain the virus. Unfortunately the most effective ones are draconian and politically unacceptable until death rates start to become more perceptible. If we thought that Wuhan had political problems in closing off the city, we have the same with brass knobs on, as the politicians are damned if they take necessary action too early (before it is palatable to the populace) and thrice damned if they take action too late.
Mushroom Matt has made his future job much harder and lined himself up for a huge pratt fall by underplaying the impacts of covid-19. Teflon Bojo will certainly heap any problems/deaths on his head, and take all the credit for any successes!
Sorry the changes are documented here, and you should be able to update via the EEPROM updater
e.g. sudo rpi-eeprom-update
Is colour important? A simple B/W (very cheap) laser printer may do for 95% of your high volume requirements and then use a print shop for the rest.
There was one other scary bit of data (but I have unfortunately lost the link). IIRC this stated that the German and Japanese between them have tested for or five hundred people that they evacuated from China. Not many reacted positive to a covid-19 test, but the scary bit was that half of the positive results were completely without symptoms and did not even feel ill. (bit like our own ‘super-spreader’.
To be fair to PHE they have now set out their main objectives one of which is to delay the onset of the storm in the hope that someone can quickly develop a vaccine or an antibody jab. However, I can see them having to quickly move to the sorts of measures that ICL came up with in the ‘Contagion’ documentary in the near future. (If you have not seen it, I thoroughly recommend it.). The Chinese have pretty much copied that play book, but doing that in our society is going to require that our Government exhibits an unprecedented amount of intestinal fortitude. They might just do that, given the demography of the MPs, if someone points out a 50% death-rate looms for a third of them.
Dave had something going with a Brother CLP a few years ago. It enticed me to buy one – nice bit of kit.
If you want to sound off in a new thread about anti-vacs then I’m 100% in support. Frankly I don’t understand an attitude that says vaccination is all some Big Pharma conspiracy. That said, Pharma takes a tiny bit of historical blame for using fairly harmful adjuvants such as mineral oil and mercury salts in the early 20th century. Although these have not been used for many decades they still give the anti-vaccsers a stick to beat with which to beat big Pharma. Added to this of course is the vegan/animal rights lobby who do not like the egg adjuvant in flu vaccines.
Back on topic this week’s New Scientist has some scary Covid-19 data for old pharts. Approximately 80% of the deaths in China are in the 60+ age bracket. As this age bracket accounts for roughly 17% of the Chinese population then my arithmetic says that an overall CFR of 1% equates to an age 60+ CFR of very roughly 50%. In turn it means the CFR for the younger age group is quite low, and nowhere near as scary.
Now we know why the Government is talking down covid-19, it nicely balances a lot of budget books.🙄
Why should I post about Mumps is there a vaccine for Covid-19.? I’m afraid Richard your sniping is getting well off target.
btw The BBC were responsible for resurrecting a comment equating all cruise ships to floating Petri Dishes, and Prof Sanjaya Senanayake, an infectious diseases specialist at the Australian National University. says it is true.
Richard, the quarantined cruise liner was well named as a floating petri dish as it gives a well constructed experimental chamber. The residents (experimental subjects) are heavily constrained and are allowed outside for a limited period in a limited space, with alcohol wash facilities provided.. All food/drink is apparently delivered to them as there are numerous complaints about having to pay for room service. Link
Despite this, new cases still arise outside the assumed 14 day period induction period. It looks like the common air-con system may be the infection pathway to their cabins as this is the only place where they are not wearing N95 masks. Airborne infection certainly appears to be one route for the virus to disseminate.
The Chinese say both respiratory and hand contact are involved in its transmission. They also say that the induction period for the disease is up to 24 days which is a bit worrying for the newly released Wuhan refugees! link
If you have never used the air-con there probably IS something wrong with the refrigerant gas pressure by now and it needs regassing. However as you have never had it switched on, it obviously has no relevance to your other problems.
If it had been switched on it is remotely possible that the gas compressor may have vibrated enough to affect your gear lever, but I think that is also unlikely unless a compressor bearing had gone wrong and not just seized.
I think PHE are struggling with how to handle potential contacts on public transport.
We now know that the Hove ‘super-spreader’ travelled by train from Gatwick to Hove a journey time of about 30 minutes. The actions of PHE at that time were somewhat irrational in that they contacted station/train staff who would only have had fleeting contact, but made no attempt through the media to contact anyone who may have shared the journey with the unnamed (at that time) ‘super-spreader’. This was similar to their action with respect to bar staff at The Grenadier who were told to self isolate, but customers were given no instructions.
If PHE had given out details of the journey time and whether he was in the front, middle or back of the train, together with a request for such people to dial 111 that would at least have been helpful. Luckily it appears that such precautions were unnecessary, but there seems to be a gaping hole in PHE procedures when it comes to potentially multiple contacts.
Just to expand, the Brighton & Hove news ran this story:
“Parents at Portslade Aldridge Community Academy (PACA) were emailed on Friday afternoon to tell them that a pupil was being advised to self-isolate by officials as part of the investigation into the Hove father’s case.
However, in a subsequent email sent to North Portslade councillor Peter Atkinson on Friday, headteacher Mark Poston has said this is a “precaution that has been advised for a number of students in a number of schools”.This morning, a PACA spokesman stressed that the school did not say that the local man diagnosed with coronavirus is a parent of pupils at PACA. (He was)
Brighton and Hove News contacted the council to ask which other schools had pupils who have been advised to self-isolate.
Brighton and Hove City Council referred us to Public Health England (PHE) which has so far not responded.
It’s believed that PACA sent out the letter to parents as a result of speculation on social media.”
The absence of any response from PHE (Mushroom Matt) was the probable origin of the rumour about 10 schools being affected which segued into 10 schools closed.
Thanks Richard I was wrong, I did not double-check my source of information. You however are also wrong, I take no pleasure in having to rely on rumours thanks to Mushroom Matt. This is of general concern in the South East, and the Brighton MP will be raising the general concern about the lack of communication.
Btw he did run a yoga for runners class while infected, and the fall-out from that may be why the comment was made about 10 schools being affected.
Interestingly my Raspberry Pi flags 5G transmissions separately from Wi-Fi in the Wi-Fi box on the panel.
I was spot on with naming him Mushroom Matt!
It turns out that the local Brighton Health Authorities have been doing the right things and taking proactive action. The man believed to be a super-spreader (for want of a better description) was a scout leader and apparently went to a number of scout meetings as the local Health Authorities closed 10 schools in the Brighton and Hove area and told parents and children to self isolate. Exactly the correct moves. Unfortunately Mushroom Matt feared panic rather than seeing such action as reassuring. Had it been publicised it may have caused a few others to needlessly isolate but that would not necessarily be bad.
Unfortunately the Mushroom is still at work and no news has yet emerged on how the London incident is being handled. Complete honesty would have been a much better move.
Richard, oh that your prognosis is correct, but it is not borne out by the WHO statistics or expert analysis..
WHO statistics 42708 confirmed cases and 1017 death., or if you just want to look at new figures these were 2484 new cases, and 108 deaths. Unfortunately this gives a CFR much closer to 2.2% than the mathematically challenged East Anglia professor’s number.
I prefer to accept the reports of the acknowledged World experts in the field i.e. Imperial College London who have calculated a CFR of 1% outside China i.e. a mere 0.4-0.5 million deaths in the UK. This number will almost certainly come to pass if our Government continues to fear panic rather than action.
This disease is unusually difficult to handle. The vast majority of those infected get only mild symptoms but some of these mildly infected ones do go on to infect others.
Logically it is best to take proactive action at an early stage. If you have to wait for some two to three weeks after someone becomes infectious to confirm covid-19 then it is best to ask a victim where they have been and who they have contacted as soon as covid-19 is suspected. Waiting for confirmation just makes the problem bigger and risks losing information on people and places.
This government wrongly fears panic more than it fears the disease. As a result we get Mushroom Matt and other apologists trying to play down the situation.
Richard you obviously live in an area where an unknown person can wander in as they feel fit and be seen by a doctor. In the South East you have to book an appointment a week in advance with your NHS doctor and provide full NHS contact details (including mobile phone) all of which is checked in advance. Those remarks were of course pure sarcasm, and there is no need to respond to them.
The official statement was obvious bull crap put out by Mushroom Matt. They know exactly who the patients are and they have contacted them days ago. The problem is that Mushroom Matt does not know whether he should now be chasing THEIR 8+ contacts and in turn the 50 contacts they generated etc until he gets the test results in a day or two from now.(figures based roughly on the average per person contacts in the Contagion programme)
This is all pure Government ‘need to know’ in order to stop panic rather than to solve the problem. They should instead have been honest with the population and just asked contacted people to go into voluntary quarantine until the test results are out and told everyone that is what they are doing.
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