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Wheels the problem with mortality rates is that all of the ones for flu-like diseases include wild guesses on the total number of cases including those which were so mild that the patient just felt a bit ill. The Covid-19 CFR of 4+% is based on confirmed cases so today’s number of 3269 cases and 144 deaths gives you a CFR of 4.4%. Chris Whitty’s number of 1% is based on the sheer guesswork of the total number of cases including those who are completely asymptomatic. That guess would be acceptable if in fact we tested sufficiently many people to get some meaningful statistics, but our grossly underfunded NHS cannot afford the testing regimes of places like Korea, China or Singapore.
Wheels I’m afraid that the CFR you quote for typical influenza is total Trump BS. For our usual flu the number of deaths per case is <0.1%.
Italy’s CFR is running about the Wiki rate of 4.5%, but now that China is treating with chloroquine phosphate the rate is down to about 1%. Incidentally if our medical profession did not have the ‘not invented here’ syndrome Boris would not have to wait 3 months and thousands of deaths before announcing his ‘miracle treatment’ and the corner being turned.
The milk powder provides necessary fat, otherwise you are making a half-baked weird focaccia.
I’ll miss out the name of the major teaching hospital from which this information came. Some of the advice it contains smacks of Government hope and propaganda aimed at maintaining morale in the nursing staff. For example the advice to drink hot tea does not really fit the fact that the virus is doing pretty well in South East Asia and the Middle East. The advice on using masks totally contradicts the Government advice to the public, but is more than likely accurate! I suspect the Government advice was based on their being a mask shortage in the NHS.
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Internal email sent to staff at major Teaching Hospital (name deleted) —- Covid-19 Virus Detection:
The simplest way to distinguish Coronavirus from a Common Cold is that the COVID-19 infection does not cause a cold nose or cough with cold, but it does create a dry and rough cough.
The virus is typically first installed in the throat causing inflammation and a feeling of dryness. This symptom can last between 3 and 4 days.
The virus typically then travels through the moisture present in the airways, goes down to the trachea and installs in the lungs, causing pneumonia that lasts about 5 or 6 days.
Pneumonia manifests with a high fever and difficulty breathing. The Common Cold is not accompanied, but there may be a choking sensation. In this case, the doctor should be called immediately.
Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning: Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection. It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.
Prevention:
The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 80°F (27°C). Therefore hot drinks such as infusions, broths or simply hot water should be consumed abundantly during the day. These hot liquids kill the virus and are easy to ingest.
Avoid drinking ice water or drinks with ice cubes.
Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes. WHY? Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous.
For those who can, sunbathe. The Sun’s UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D is good for you.
The Coronavirus has a large size (diameter of 400-500 nanometers) so face masks can stop it, no special face masks are needed in daily life.
If an infected person sneezes near us, stay 10 feet (3.3 meters) away to allow the virus fall to the ground and prevent it from falling on you.
When the virus is on hard surfaces, it survives about 12 hours, therefore when hard surfaces such as doors, appliances, railings, etc. are touched, hands should be washed thoroughly and/or disinfected with alcoholic gel The virus can live nested in clothes and tissues between 6 and 12 hours. Common detergents can kill it. Things that cannot be washed should be exposed to the Sun and the virus will die.
The transmission of the virus usually occurs by direct infection, touching fabrics, tissues or materials on which the virus is present.
Washing your hands is essential.
The virus survives on our hands for only about 10 minutes. In that time many things can happen, rubbing the eyes, touching the nose or lips. This allows the virus to enter your throat. Therefore, for your good and the good of all, wash your hands very often and disinfect them.
You can gargle with disinfectant solutions (i.e. Listerine or Hydrogen Peroxide) that eliminate or minimize the amount of virus that can enter the throat. Doing so removes the virus before it goes down to the trachea and then to the lungs.
Disinfect things touched often: cellphone, keyboard, mouse, car steering wheel, door handles, etc
Les – I recommend early rather than late. MilkandMore have now stopped taking new customers. (I think their system could not take the influx of orders).
Lee you may want to think about touting for some business with your local small shop keepers. I asked my local butcher if he had a web site, he glumly said ‘unfortunately no’, but he would let me phone and they had a van. I suspect that if you lived in this area you would have an eager customer looking for both a web server and a simple shopping page. (he, like many butchers is almost techno-illiterate, a fairly carp Face book page is as far as it goes.)
+1 for all Les’s comments. If you do not like a brick-like loaf, try the French bread recipe for your bread maker. This recipe normally makes even the worse loaf fluffy.
Les, check out if you have a milk delivery service in your area.
My #1 son tipped us off to use MilkandMore . For a lot of mainland UK it is a life-saver in the way it plugs the supply of short shelf-life daily consumables which would otherwise force us to emerge from our caves and risk our health. (Milk and fruit juice in glass bottles, fruit, eggs and veg are also on offer in our area).
I think we could well continue to use this convenient service if we emerge on the other side.
Key thing is to put the yeast and salt in opposite corners as the salt kills the yeast. You also need live yeast, make sure yours is not time expired.
If you are a Blue badge holder that should be enough proof. Official bodies can check your status from your NHS number.
My wife is a retired mathematics teacher (O & A levels), plus some remedial junior high school basics. Today my #1 son rang up to book her in as a distance teacher for his primary school age children. He now has to try and sort out the school curriculum, what books to use etc. while all the teachers are in self isolation. That however is his problem.
As he is a bit of an entrepreneur it would not surprise me if my wife suddenly complains that she has two classes of a dozen filled out by his friend’s kids for the next six months. (no point in any school holidays if you cannot go anywhere).
One would have thought that a face mask is as low-tech as you can get. Unfortunately that isn’t so for medical grade N95-N100 masks, it isn’t the mask it is the filter element which is a surprisingly hi-tech. The filter element is an extremely fine mesh of synthetic polymer fibers made from a material called melt-blown fabric, and there is a world-wide shortage of this material.
While I accept that staff who are continually exposed to viruses need the bast one can get, I wonder if a lower grade filter (call it ‘N80’) would not be sufficient for the less frequent occasions when Jill or Joe Public get exposed to the virus. During the SARS outbreak it was found that everyone wearing a mask (better fitting than a surgical mask) considerably reduced infection rates. Of course this is totally counter to the advice from our Government – one wonders if they were originally aiming to infect everyone as quickly as possible!
Many Institutions are removing paywalls etc during the Coronavirus outbreak. Cambridge University Press have joined in and have opened free access to their text books from now through May. If you have A-Level or Uni children who are starting to panic this may be a useful resource.
Talked to Oz cousin in Queensland. Their Government have set aside the first two hours of every day for over 70s in the supermarkets. Most drive to the store so it means a fairly effective separation of the young from the old. However she says it hasn’t really changed habits as the old pharts still stop and chat to one another, and well within 2 metres as they cannot otherwise hear. I guess it will mean a selective cull of the deaf gasbags!
I suspect that we are going to see a lot of ‘last gasp’ units like these in ICU wards thanks to Bojo dropping the ball.. Wood string and old football bladders!
Phase one of ‘Banged-Up-By-Bungling-Boris’ has now been put into effect.
a) A head full of silvery locks has been transformed into a bald pate. I massively over-tipped the hairdresser and told her that I would see her in four months time.
b) Asked GP for four months supply of meds so I am not relying on others
c) Signed up with milkman
d) Stocked up with Lidl’s Malt
e) Set up Skype & Apple Talk for family and friends
f) Been to Garden Centre and got stuff wanted by wife
g) Got necessary stuff for growing own vegs, but not really thought through how to make the stuff grow in 4 weeks!
Hopefully other shopping gaps can be covered by Amazon etc, but I’m sure I have missed something. Maybe others can chip in with their own BUBBB lists.
“Johnson’s latest comments, made on a conference call with British CEOs, might be the worst thing he’s said yet about the pandemic..”
The comment will definitely come back to haunt BoJo along with thousands of unnecessary victims.
Even more scary is the fact that it was the wave in the following year that killed the most people!
St Louis put in early intervention (analogous to China), but Philadelphia did not and kept mass gatherings (e.g. this Government and Cheltenham races). St Louis only had a fraction of the deaths experienced by Philadelphia. link
It looks like BoJo is going to kill a lot of people in England by his gambling on the disease not being so virulent, and putting the economy ahead of health.
Just what we need a Covid-19 calculator. link
Actually it could be useful to judge when the peak load on hospitals will occur (about 10 weeks time), or when you should be living out of your store cupboard (about 4-6 weeks time if I’m correct in its use). However it looks like you will need sufficient food to last at least a month and maybe as much as two in isolation.
To avoid problems check out if the films are in the public domain. Google on ‘uk movies in public domain’, and you will hit sites such as this.
The Governments ‘secret’ report says 8 million could be hospitalised. I only calculated 0.7 million (0.35 critical), so either their numbers are a total over the epidemic (seems about right) or at peak patients will be in for 10 weeks.
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